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The photo above is the Gameday illustration of Curtis Granderson’s brief at-bat against Jonathan Papelbon the other night. Papelbon threw two pitches to Curtis, the second one being a fastball middle-up at 94 MPH. As I am sure you know, Granderson turned on that pitch and sent it into the seats in right to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead. What was interesting about Papelbon’s performance Wednesday night was that although he has been encouraged to rediscover his splitter, he is still not confident enough to use it as an out pitch. According to Fangraphs, Papelbon threw his splitter less frequently in 2009, maddening Red Sox fans as he consistently reverted to a fastball-only philosophy in tight situations, while occasionally mixing in a slider. Here is Papelbon’s pitch type graph from his blown save in Game 3 of the ALDS, courtesy of Brooks Baseball (FF is fastball, FT is splitter):
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As you can see, all but one of his 28 pitches were fastballs. I’m not sure why it is that he has eschewed the splitter, but there was much talk this spring about recapturing that pitch as the devastating out pitch it once was. Against the Yankees, he threw 26 pitches, with 8 of them being splitters. However, he only threw one slider, rendering him a two pitch pitcher once again. Furthermore, as the following graph shows, he refrained from using the splitter deep into counts, with 6 out of 8 coming in the first 2 pitches of an at-bat. Here is his pitch selection chart based on pitch number in the AB:
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I am certainly not suggesting that Papelbon cannot succeed with just two pitches. He was very good in 2009, and I expect him to be excellent again in 2010. That said, when I brought this point up on Twitter, Ben Kabak of RAB astutely pointed out its relevance to Joba Chamberlain. I think the Yankees and Joba can learn a valuable lesson from Papelbon. Working in the bullpen often leads a pitcher to pare down his repertoire, removing pitches that can be effective but are simply not needed when facing just a handful of hitters one time. If Brian Cashman really still sees Joba as “a starter in the bullpen,” it will be important to have him mix in his changeup and curveball on occasion in order to maintain the quality of those pitches. Even if he is destined for the bullpen, having extra pitches at his disposal will leave him less prone to blow-ups when one of his primary pitches is not working. No matter what the future holds for Chamberlain, maintaining his entire repertoire of pitches will help him maximize his value.
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5 Responses to Papelbon Ditching Pitches and A Lesson For Joba
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TIQ IQ
I couldn’t agree more. There will be several situations where Joba can spin off a few curves or toss a few change-ups. Maybe not the one or two run games in Fenway, but maybe the games against the Royals, A’s and Mariners when we have a three or four run lead.
On Papelbon, I had the (dis)pleasure of watching him a lot last year and I can’t help but think that he’s in for some trouble sooner rather than later. He really just repeatedly pumps fastballs. How long before the league recognizes this and goes to town on him?
On a side note….with the squares already tiny and close together, why did they choose two similar colors to differentiate between the two pitches? Stupid.
I’m really starting to think that Papelbon is doing his best to avoid the splitter in an attempt to stay healthy. As you probably know, Papelbon and the Sox have been going year to year with his contract, with neither side showing a lot of interest in a long term deal. Papelbon is taking a big risk that he hits free agency 100% healthy and I think he could be protecting his arm as much as he can. What I’m going to start paying attention to is how many times Paps is shaking off the catcher? Is the catcher calling for the secondary pitches more often and Paps is shaking off to get to the fastball? If this continues and the Sox truly believe Bard is a closer, I wouldn’t be surprised if they think of trading him next offseason.
He might be doing that to protect his arm but at the same time isn’t he always allowing his performance to suffer
I agree about Joba using all of his pitches in the BP. I think this should be a point of emphasis for Posada and Cervelli as well as Eiland and Girardi. Not just for his future as a starter, but to make him more effective right now.
If the splitter is successful, it shold be at or below the knees, right? The bottom graph appears to show a pitch that isn’t working half the time. It may have been prudence that has drawn his eschewment, his eschewery.