It's Simply Early For Javy

Joe Girardi had the following to say about Javy Vazquez’ poor outing in his first game:

Javier Vazquez will be trying to move on from his disappointing season debut. Girardi said Vazquez rushed last week again Tampa, causing his arm slot to drop. “His fastball was running too much back across the middle of the plate,” Girardi said.

A look at the strikezone plot does not seem to show a ton of fastballs hanging over the middle:
[image title="location.pfx" size="full" id="16710" align="center" linkto="full" ]

That seems to be a fairly normal distribution, with just a handful of fastballs ending up in the middle of the plate. I think that the issue may have been one of arm strength, as Javy’s velocity on his fastball was at 89.6, down from 91.2 last season. While his velocity has been trending downwards over the last few seasons, this seems like an unnatural jump that is likely a product of it being early in the season, such that his arm is not yet entirely built up to its “final” velocity.

While velocity is not the most important thing for a pitcher to have at his disposal, it can help limit the damage when location is missed. A few MPH missing on the fastball can cause a handful of pitches that happen to stay over the middle to be sprayed all over the ballpark. It might take a few starts for Javy to get his arm up to speed, but he should be fine. Hopefully the fans at the Stadium today give him the benefit of the doubt. Why am I not optimistic?

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