Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
Brian Heyman of LoHud details a sequence of plays from yesterday’s game that illustrates how Gardner’s speed can impact the game. Here’s what he wrote:
In the third, Gardner made it 3-0, reaching on a bouncer to the hole between third and short with two outs and two in scoring position. Then he took off on a steal attempt of second. He didn’t think catcher Taylor Teagarden would throw through with Curtis Granderson on third. Gardner stopped before he got to second, hoping for a rundown to try to allow Granderson to bolt home. But Teagarden rushed a throw to second. The ball tailed and skipped into center. Granderson scored, and then so did Gardner on a two-run homer by Jeter, and it was 6-0.
Two things here. First, whenever you see a player get in a rundown with a man on 3rd, that is generally done intentionally. You will often see it with 2 outs, a runner in scoring position and a ball hit to the outfield, where the a baserunner draws the outfielders throw and avoids being tagged long enough to ensure that the man in scoring position reaches home safely. So if you see a baserunner get into a run down, it’s not always a baserunning blunder, it’s very often a designed play.
Next, take a look at that play from a statistical standpoint. Gardner gets credit for a stolen base, but the run scores on an error that gets charged to Teagarden. Yet the error was a result of rushing the throw, which was obviously a product of Gardner’s speed. So looking at most run producing stats will often miss the point with Brett. He will often reach 1B on throwing errors and advance to 2nd without even getting an AB, much less raising his OBP or BA. The most important stat to look at with Brett is Runs scored, and I also like to look at Total Bases with players like him. You’ll find that speedy players like him (and Jose Reyes) will score an inordinate amount of runs in what appears to be very few opportunities, but plays like this illustrate just how that happens.
His defensive prowess in the outfield also tends to get overlooked and underrated by many fans. We have advanced metrics to rate a players defense, but the way that plays out in an individual game can mean turning what would have been a Double or Triple with recent Yankee Left Fielders into an out. Again, in a low scoring game that can be the difference between winning and losing, and even in a slugfest a bases-clearing double can provide the margin in a game.
Manager Joe Girardi has long been a fan of Brett Gardner, and discussed what he brings to the table during yesterday’s post game. He said:
“That’s what Gardy does,” Joe Girardi said. “He creates problems for the defense. He takes the attention of just trying to get the hitter out at times. He puts pressure on the catchers, the infielders. … He’s a pest.”
As a former Catcher who played against the likes of Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson and Brett Butler, I’m sure Joe is intimately aware of the havoc players like Brett will cause. Yankee fans old enough to remember Ricky Henderson’s tenure in pinstripes will remember the effect he had on opposing pitchers, who were often so distracted with keeping Ricky from stealing 2nd that they would often walk the next batter, or fall behind and be forced to groove one over the plate. A sequence like that shows up as a walk for the pitcher or a hit for the batter, yet the ‘pest’ on First base was certainly a factor. So his impact is difficult to nail down statistically, but is clear as you see a play develop. It will take time for Brett to develop a reputation comparable to that of Henderson, but it is obvious that he is already in the heads of opposing players to some extent.
Those of us who are fans of Brett Gardner have long argued that what he brings doesn’t always show up on his side of the boxscore for the evening. That he adds a different element to the Yankee attack, one that can help them prevent runs with his outstanding defense or scratch out a potentially decisive run in a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. We all know the Yanks can slug with anyone, but recent Yankee teams have run into a brick wall facing good pitchers in the post season, ones for which they had no answers. Brett Gardner can diversify the Yankee offense and be the kind of player who can generate a key run all by himself, without the benefit of a hit or even with him getting the ball out of the infield. As we exit the steroid era, Gardner provides a glimpse into the distant past, when Baseball was played by quick little men who scored runs by executing fundamentals, and taking advantage of errors by the opposing team. As a fan, he’s fun to watch and root for. He gives hope to anyone who was ever told they were too small or too scrawny to play Baseball. There’s room for players like Brett, even on a team like the Yankees.
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34 Responses to Gardner's impact goes beyond numbers
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TIQ IQ
I dont’t buy it.
First, the rundown here with Teagen was not planned or smart. Gardner was caught. If Teagen makes the throw then we are probably looking at an out with the heart of the order at the plate and two men on base.
Second, three infield hits worries me. He is making aweful contact at the plate. He is good defensively but he has to improve a lot at the plate to stick. Giradi may like him, but he benched him last year and for the last couple of days too.
“the rundown here with Teagen was not planned or smart.”
You couldn’t possibly be more wrong. He wasn’t picked off at First, he drew the throw from the Catcher. Do you actually think Brett can’t beat out a Catcher’s throw with his speed? Why else would he stop?
Next, Brett is looking for balls he can hit to the Left side of the infield, knowing that if he gets the ball in the hole he can easily beat out a throw. This is an adjustment he’s making to how pitchers are pitching him, and taking advantage of his speed.
Don’t get caught up in style points with Brett. It doesn’t matter how he gets on, just that he gets on base so he can go to work.
He wasn’t benched for the last couple of days. He was platooned. That is a major difference.
Yeah, they still don’t trust him against Lefties. But I also think they want to get a look at players like Thames and Winn, who they may want to cut loose at some point later in the year.
I’d play him everyday, because with the rest of our lineup I value his defense more than I’d value Thames offense. Already, Thames has cost us about 3-4 runs with his supbar defense.
Nice little post. I agree Gardner gives the team an added dimension they’ve not had in the recent past. Getting on base batting in the 9 hole does just that for opposing pitchers, drives them nuts when Jeter steps to the plate. If we can get his OBP to hover around .400 (hes gonna need to learn to take more pitches because I dont think hell ever be a solid hitter), the Yanks lineup will be yes, even more potent.
Thanks, although .400 sounds a little ambitious, I’ll be happy with .350 and stellar defense, eventually in CF. The only reason why Grandy is playing CF now is they weren’t sure Brett could hold down an everyday job with the bat. If he proves that he can, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be given the position, he’s better than Curtis defensively.
Having Granderson’s speed in front of Gardner will just magnify the “small ball” element that the Yankees have lacked recently.
They really didn’t lack it. It’s just younger now. Last year, they were near the top of the AL in stolen bases.
Strongly agree with the basic thrust of the post regarding Gardner’s contributions and the fact that advanced metrics don’t capture a lot of what he brings to the team, as the examples you put forth illustrate. I thought the comparison to Brett Butler is particularly apt as I see him as the ceiling of the type of player Gardner can ultimately become. Further, I think if you look at the raw base stealing numbers , Gardner is a more proficient base stealer though not nearly as good with the bat, at least to date.Two minor quibbles:
1- A batter will get an AB when he reaches via an error.It simply goes as an 0/1. No big deal.
2- There have been studies regarding whether speedy runners such as Gardner and Reyes reach base more as a result of errors than the plodding Posada/ Mike Lowell model.. Surprisingly, all research to date indicates thatthe speed of the batter seems to have little impact on the frequency with which a batter reaches by error- Doug Glanville made a similar argument to yours in the NY Times sometime over the winter and I was surprised to find the numbers in this instance don’t support what intuition would suggest. I think a reason for this might be that many of these balls are actually scored as base hits as the official scorer will take into account the speed of the runner in making the call whether the fielder had to use more than ordinary effort in making the play.
Your last point was exemplfied in Sunday’s game: Michael Kay said “come on” on the ruling that Brett’s dribbler, passed over by the charging Arias, was a hit.
You’re right about the AB thing, the fact he’s on First is due to a fielder’s error, and therefore he gets charged with an AB. About those studies, I’d love to see the link because it seems to run counter to what most of us are seeing, which does happen sometimes.
Two articles:
‘Another Look at OBP”- James Click
“Speed Scores and Reaching Base On Errors”- Dan Levitt
You’ll be surprised at the lack of correlation between speed which puts pressure on the defense and the number of times particular batters reach by errors.As I mentioned in my original post, the pressure batters like Gardner and other put on the defense is generally manifested by those plays being scored as base hits, not errors.
One more thing I forgot. Doug Glanville wrote an article in the NY Times dated September 20, 2009 entitled ” Getting to First Base” in which he tried to defend Jacoby Ellsbury’s low on base % last year by suggesting that speedy base runners- Ellsbury, Gardner- can get to first base more often than the average player in ways which aren’t measured by OBP, specifically referencing times reached on error and the ability to stay out of DPs.As you suggest this in line with common thinking. However, both the Click and Levitt study’s seem to indicate that any advantage that speedy runners may have in reaching first via error is negligible.
when he is on base, the defense is forced to rush throws, pitch more fastballs..disrupt the timing of the pitcher and infielders..JD..where did the ball go on the steal? the catcher rushed the infield looked confused with the runner coming home..pressure..pressure, pressure, if he hits .280 .290.. that would be great..for me thats 50 steals…..saved runs in the outfield..we don’t need an all star at every position..he will never be a great player in the major leagues.. but can be great at what he brings to us..his head is in the game.the more he is on first base ,the better the season jeter will have.. give brett his due..how about grandy on first and brett up…does brett see more fastballs. that could help the kid…grandy should swipe 30 this year
Runs scored is never the most important stat for an individual player, ever. It’s completely lineup dependent. Put Gardner on the Royals and he’s going to score significantly fewer runs. What changed? Is he forcing the defense to make fewer errors? No, he’s surrounded by worse hitters.
How often does Gardner really reach base via an error? How many of those times did his speed really make a difference? As classicsteve says, official scorers often take the runner’s speed into account and, if anything, give them more hits than they deserve on those types of plays. And, BTW, total bases isn’t going to capture how many times he gets on base via error or advances on a steal.
Gardner is a good player, but he’s not a some sort of magical potion that fills in the One Thing They’ve Always Needed or whatever. If you’ll recall, they won the World Series with Melky playing almost the entire postseason last year and had no difficulty scoring runs. He’s a good player that can get on base and swipe some bags, but his magical unicorn speed isn’t casting a spell on the other team and forcing them to make errors and walk the batter behind him.
You’re making my case despite your apparent opposition to Gardner. In the context of this team, he’s valuable. Would he be as valuable on the Royals? Of course not. And you went way further than I did with my point about Runs Scored and Total Bases, I was simply saying that he’s more of a table setter, that you shouldn’t look at power numbers with him. That’s all.
BTW-You’re right about Total Bases not including SB. I thought that it did, and after doing a refresher on the definition I found that it does not.
Fun post, and you clearly are a fan, but comparing Gardner to a HOF considered the greatest leadoff man in the history of the game? Sorry, but time to keep your man-crush to yourself.
“It will take time for Brett to develop a reputation comparable to that of Henderson”
Weak argument. Brett Butler had a similar impact on opposing defenders, and he’s not a HOFer. Obviously my point was to compare the way they could distract pitchers and make defenders rush throws, and not comparing the two players as offensive players as a whole. Everyone else seemed to get that but you, but I’ll guess you’re just not a big Gardner fan and are just looking to poke holes.
Great post, Steve. Brett had large impacts in both weekend games, never hitting a ball out the infield. Leading off, he almost laid the perfect bunt, which rolled foul. Harden didn’t like that, and threw at his knees. To stay respectable, Brett needs to establish some clean contact, though.
Steve,
This guy has zero power. I mean none. You are way overstating his value. 9 times out of ten the play you reference where the guy on first breaks to take the throw simply results in an out. Its a dumb play when you have a yankee lineup. Whatever he gets us in speed he gives up with lack of power. He is simply a fast guy that can’t hit lefties or for power. We need to see three months and not two games.
JD.. we don;t need power from that spot..we know who the guys are that will hit it far..we have enough.. who would you like to have in LF? that is on the 40 man or another team? he did have a nice day today… also if he steals 50 plus would that change your opinion? i agree 3 months from now we can judge…but he has to p-lay to judge
1) He hits leftys much better then you may think; BA. .291/ OBP .381 in 2009.
2) He is a slow starter and always has been; once he gets going you will see him drive to the gaps as he does once he gets settled.
I’m all for a larger sample size, and I haven’t forgot that he lost his starting gig to Melky last year. The Yanks also had so many doubts about him this off season that they loaded up on veteran Left Fielders with Thames and Winn.
But you’re point about power doesn’t hold with me. He’s a table setter, not a middle of the order bat. Once on base, he scores way more often than most other players, due to his speed and ability to steal bases. As the #9 hitter, people get way too hung up on his lack of power. It’s more of a double leadoff situation with Jeter behind him.
I think he’s a decent player, but the notion that it’s hurting the team to have Thames in LF vs lefties is a matter of opinion. Several things have been attached to him that I don’t believe.
Number one is that speed never slumps. That’s BS-speed slumps just like power slumps. If he stops getting on base at a decent clip, and it can happen to fast players as well as slow ones, his value drops considerably.
Number two is that he’s saving a lot of runs in LF. A couple of fly balls land beyond Thames reach and suddenly LF defense seems a lot more important than it really is. He’ll catch balls that MT won’t, but not that many over the course of a season. There’s a reason guys like Wally Post and Harmon Killebrew played a lot of games in LF.
Number three is the notion that the Yankees need more team speed. The Yankees win by getting on base and having good slugging numbers. A few games that Gardner got some ground ball hits to SS doesn’t change that. He is what his OBA says he is in that regard.
There aren’t enough LH starters in the AL for this to be a big issue, and the way he beats up his body a day or two off a week is probably a good thing.
He’d be more valuable in CF, I agree with you there. But they’re still not sure he will hold down the job, so they let Granderson settle in at CF. If Gardner proves he’s an everyday player this year, I’ll bet he’s your starting CF next season.
Those balls that were out of Thames reach wouldn’t of been out of Gardner’s reach. And they wouldn’t have been out of the reach of an even average defensive left fielder and that’s the problem.
Steve,
I really want this guy to succeed. He is a Yankee after all. He is also a gritty high energy guy. Here is what I suggest. We establish an under over now. To me, if he is a .350 obp with 25 steals in 225 abs by the break, then he is good for the team. Otherwise an upgrade is needed. Do you agree.
i will go with that… he will have 25 by then…
Sure, he has to produce to keep a job. I think we should all agree about that, unless you’re related to the guy or something.
I don’t think anyone is saying that Gardner can be a useful player. I think that too much is being made of what he brings to the team because he beat out some IF hits and Thames played some fly balls into 2Bs that a good LF would have gotten to. The latter doesn’t happen often enough to make up for the difference in what Thames does to LH pitching that Gardner isn’t likely to. The former is included in the numbers: OBA measures IF hits right along with all of the other ways to get on.
Girardi may start putting his name down vs some LHers when Thames cools off, but right now the guy is raking. Having a righty power bat in the bottom third is a huge asset vs lefties for a LH team like the Yanks. They carried guys like him when they were winning pennants down through the decades. (And the LF guys like Bob Cerv patrolled was a lot bigger than the current one.)
that ‘can’ in the first sentence should be ‘can’t’.
Dude, the old stadium may have been falling apart but I did like the fact that you could still make out the old dimensions from above. The left field original fence was seldom cleared. If they had build the field back like that A-Rod would be lucky to hit 10 a year out to left.
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