Recently, FanGraphs updated its UZR measurements for 2010 (for park factors, power of the batter, speed of the batter, etc.), which subsequently influenced player ratings in previous seasons. In most cases, even with the alteration to UZR’s formula, the fielding numbers for players did not change significantly to the point where one player went from an excellent fielder to a poor fielder and vice versa. However, I did notice that our former left fielder, Johnny Damon, did experience a noticeable shift in his 2009 rating, and it is a shift that seems worthy of discussion.
Prior to the UZR update, last season, Damon posted a -9.2 Ultimate Zone Rating. Though the rating was largely dependent upon the 36-year old’s poor arm rating at -4.1 runs, his range was also an issue at -3.7 runs (add his negative error runs total to the two measures and you get -9.2). After the UZR update though, Damon’s 2009 UZR now stands at a much more manageable -4.1 runs (-5.5 UZR/150). Damon was, essentially, a tick below average in 2009, according to UZR. And while his arm is still a problem even after the positive change – the measure went from -3.7 to -3.0 – Damon’s range rating is much better at 0.2. His range rating wasn’t all that bad to begin with a year ago (his arm was the main issue), but, now that UZR is updated, his overall number has markedly improved.
I wonder how analyses of Damon might have changed a season ago if we had access to Damon’s -4.1 UZR at the end of the year, rather than his -9.2 mark. Damon still wasn’t the greatest outfielder, even with the UZR update taken into account, however, maybe more fans would have wanted the Yankees to re-sign him had this data been available.
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7 Responses to Damon's updated UZR not all that bad
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TIQ IQ
The morons on WEEI are now using this to prove that UZR is completely bogus, and that Ellsbury is in fact a great CF as they thought.
Problem is, Theo has said they have their own system, and it showed he was bad enough to go out and get another CF’er and move him.
Yup. And of course they didn’t acknowledge that.
Why would he need a glove? He could have DH’d.
“I wonder how analyses of Damon might have changed a season ago if we had access to Damon’s -4.1 UZR at the end of the year, rather than his -9.2 mark. ”
It shouldn’t change anyone’s analysis of Damon’s fielding ability in 2009 hardly at all. The reality is that even the people who developed the most widely used advanced defensive metrics readily admit is that these statistics are far from infallible. Lichtman has repeatedly stated that one year’s worth of defensive statistics do not present an accurate picture while Dewan acknowledges that the current metrics are approximately 60% accurate in representing a player’s true fieding ability.( Sorry long day I don’t have the links readily available where these guys were quoted).
While obviously UZR , +/- , etc are vast improvements over their primitive predecessors, they should be hardly be viewed as the ultimate authoritative word on a player’s fielding ability for a particular season( See Mark Texeira 2009). The fact that adjustments are being made confirm that they are approximations that should be used to augment, not totally replace, eyeball observation.
After watching almost every game in 2009 and then reading this, I’m convinced UZR is pretty worthless. Damon was awful out there.
lmao cool info man.