On Monday, Moshe mused on Nick Swisher, his excellent 2009 season, and whether or not Swish is a candidate for regression in 2010. While there was some number crunching in Moshe’s post, I’m gonna take it a step further like I have for a few different players and project, based on other projections, what we might reasonably expect Swisher to do in 2010.
Before starting, I’ll say what I always say about Nick Swisher and players like him: if you’re looking for a guy to hit for a high batting average and make a lot of contact, Nick isn’t you’re man. He strikes out quite a bit and is not a good contact hitter. However, he does other things that offset those negatives. He’s got a great eye and when he does make contact, he hits for very good power. The same thing true here is true of Adam Dunn, but that’s really neither her nor there. Anyway, onto the forecasts.
Combining the CHONE, Bill James, Marcels, and Fans projections for Swisher, I came up with a line of .247/.357/.464/.821 for Swisher in 2010. Those numbers represent a bit of a drop off from Nick’s 2009, but they’re still right up there with his career numbers (.245/.357/.460/.818). The projections see Nick hitting 26 homers, rather than the 29 he hit in 2009, but that drop off isn’t really anything significant.
Basically, I have a lot of faith in Swisher to put up at least this projection. He’s a good hitter and I think he’s proved that 2008 was the exception whereas 2009 (and ’05-’07) was more of the rule.
And though I should’ve started with this, I’ll end with it: I’m an unabashed Swisher lover. Over at River Ave. Blues last year, I declared myself president of the Nick Swisher Fan Club. Nick’s a solid player who fits the Yankees in more than one way. Not only is he a great presence in the clubhouse and a good guy for the fans, he’s also a guy whose skill set is perfect for the Yankees. Nick is patient and powerful and can hold his own on defense. The trade for him was an absolute steal and his contract is not too pricey. I’m very glad that Nick Swisher is a New York Yankee.
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3 Responses to Projecting Swishalicious
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TIQ IQ
I think that is a reasonable projection. Now, most of those projections are clouded by his poor 2008, which makes sense. But if you think 2008 was a major outlier and is highly unlikely to be repeated, you might project him a bit higher.
I hope you sit or have had the opportunity to sit out in right field matt. As a Swisher fan myself, his pregame antics are one of the more enjoyable aspects to attending a game in person.
i agree matt with everything….but…i am and always have been a defense guy, and while he did show improvement in the 2nd half ’09, im still suspicious….guess im still waiting for the return of Rockey Collevito!