Last season, with regards to defense, Nick Swisher was worth 0.8 runs below average in right field, according to his Ultimate Zone Rating. This mark would actually surprise many Yankee fans, particularly those who are not defensive metric wonks, as there seemed to be a prevailing perception in such circles that Swisher was an awful outfielder. Statistically speaking though, that was far from the truth a season ago and has never really been true historically. Over the course of his career, from Oakland to Chicago, Swisher has been a consistently average corner outfield defender with shades of above averageness. Despite a few strange routes to fly balls that birthed a sense of a fielding ineptitude, 2009 was not a deviation from that assessment. All in all, he was really a decent outfielder.
With that cleared up, digging a bit deeper into Swisher’s UZR, so as to better understand the number’s meaning, I turn to a Swisher UZR Chart – you can read my writeup on UZR Charts here – that illustrates the three components of FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings (for outfielders), range runs (RngR), arm runs (ARM), and error runs (ErrR).
As you can see from the chart, in 2009, Swisher’s biggest strength was his range (blue bar), at 4.3 runs above average, the fifth best rating amongst right fielders in either league, yet it was entirely negated by his foremost flaw, his arm (green bar). Swisher’s arm value, pegged at 4.6 runs below average – almost half a win – was the worst mark in the American League and the third worst in baseball (only Brad Hawpe and Andre Ethier were worse). He and Johnny Damon, who was 4.2 runs below average, were very similar in terms of arm awfulness (now that’s saying something). Swisher’s UZR (red bar) of -0.8 is, essentially, a measure of conflict between range runs and arm runs.
From what we saw last season, earlier in the year, Swisher often threw balls in recklessly, which resulted in errant overthrows. His arm strength seemed average, with accuracy being the main issue. He and the Yankees recognized the problem, and worked to resolve it in the latter half of the season. Though I am not privy to any month-by-month UZR figures – I don’t know if those exist, actually – speaking subjectively, Swisher’s throwing noticeably improved as the year wore on. Hopefully the improvements made will carry over into the upcoming regular season. If they do, then Swisher has a chance to be referred to as one of the best right fielders in the game (this notion is based not only on last year’s UZR data, but on the previous years, as well). It might sound like a stretch, but it is possible (he’s close).
His range is definitely there, and the pendulum doesn’t swing very far in either direction, good or bad, with regards to error runs (yellow bar), so, correcting the arm runs issue will be his biggest defensive challenge in 2010.
Note – Swisher’s UZR on FanGraphs actually reads as -0.7, however, when you add his RngR, ARM, and ErrR, you get -0.8. I figured it was just a rounding issue, but to preclude confusion, I discuss it as -0.8, not -0.7. I only do this because it is but a fraction of a run.
Photo by Reuters
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10 Responses to Nick Swisher's UZR: A battle between good (range) and evil (arm)
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TIQ IQ
I do not get how newspapers are still in business. I go to your site everyday(RSS), and then read the newspapers, I cringe at the stupidity and the average analysis they offer(football stats are still archaic comparatively).
Thanks, Ed-Pro.
It’s important we separate the various components and operations within a newspaper, and also the format as well (local, state, national, international). I don’t mean to surprise anyone but the mainstream in any era have done a poor job of covering sports. Why? Well, some of that is due to the old format being incapable of breaking news, another in a lack of competition from other sources, and also how they allocate their own resources. It’s also, and more importantly, because hyperbole sells more than thoughtful articulation (or so the notion goes). The internet certainly levels the playing field in giving all the opportunity to cover an angles, which creates its own sub-markets. (Some guys focus on saber, some prospects, some injuries, some individual players, some the business aspect, etc.) Newspapers in paper format can’t afford to do niche–they risk alienating too much of their audience and it’s a logistics nightmare. Can they do a better job? No doubt and they’re feeling the effects of it now. But if we’re just thinking of the mainstream, consider ESPN, TSN, SI and the other large sports media outlets. They do an atrocious job, so it’s not just newspapers lacking in the important areas.
I’ll leave out issues of more serious importance for now (investigative journalism, notably), as it’s just too large a scope to bite into here. But, I will say this: as readership and advertising revenue decline, the first thing you see are fluff, celeb, feel good pieces and other BS. Part of it is our fault–we don’t have a strong interest or appetite for the important bits. It becomes cyclical.
Final note: While there are many great blogs, think of how many dog shit blogs there are. Like anything, you need to sift through the shit to get the diamonds.
I think Swisher is one of the most underrated guys in the league today. I mean this guy could very easily hit 30 homers and 90-100 RBI while playing above-average defense in right while still hitting in the 8th spot in the order. Additionally, he is always among the league leaders in pitches/AB. I still can’t believe we got him for Wilson Betemit
Totally agree. SO underrated (by everyone, especially Yankee fans).
Yeah, not me anymore, thanks to youse guys! I always wondered what Wilson Benemit was good for. That’s some foresight, Brian.
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If 09 is typical of Nick’s profile, he may fare better in LF than RF. That’s why I don’t see us going after Crawford as so many others. I think Cash will prefer Werth, and shift Swish over to LF. Nick’s contract expires after 2011 (1 mil buyout for 10.25 club option in 2012), and you can look at moving Jetes/Alex to LF then.
Boy, there’s some more.
I’m in the minority. I don’t think the Yankees go for an outfielder at all. With Pettitte and Vazquez leaving after this year, I see the Yanks making a run at Cliff Lee or a different big arm. So the 2011 rotation would be CC, Cliff Lee, Burnett, Joba and Hughes.