I read this yesterday and, to be honest, it sort of made me laugh.
Here’s manager Joe Girardi discussing Marcus Thames, via George King of the NY Post:
“He has had good at-bats. I don’t get caught up in the numbers. It’s a small sample.”
And yet, this spring, Girardi has basically said that Brett Gardner will have to prove his bat, and that the fifth starter will be decided upon a handful of exhibition games (“a small sample”). It is all laughable, really. For the most part, Girardi knows what he wants to do. He likes Brett Gardner and wants him as a starting outfielder, but he’ll push him to play hard this spring just to make it clear that he has to fight for his spot given his weak bat. He also likes Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as his fifth starter and is simply manufacturing a “competition” in order to appear evenhanded in his decision and to encourage those involved to work hard for an incentive that is not really obtainable.
This spring narrative is just noise. Girardi has a plan and it will be implemented, regardless of the spring stats.
Photo by the AP
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5 Responses to Girardi's conflicting message
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TIQ IQ
Spring is a relatively small sample for Thames who has 1549 career MLB at bats w/ a 243/306/491 line. Spring is not a small sample for Gardner who has 375 MLB at bats w/ a line of .256/325/352. Spring is a small sample for CC but it’s not for Joba. Jeter vs. Pena. Posada vs. Cervelli. If Girardi KNEW Gardner was the man, Cashman wouldn’t have made a move for Hoffmann, Winn, and Thames. Gardner has already lost his starting position once, why can’t it happen again?
Small samples are important when we take a look at a stat line. Its not as important (though its always good to have more information) when you’re evaluating players based on how they look on the field. If Thames is hitting .100 after 20 at bats, but is swinging the bat well and making hard contact, then Girardi has pretty good information.
If Phil Hughes is showing good command and an effective third pitch, he’s in good shape. If Joba’s velocity and control are back, he’s in good shape. That’s probably what Girardi means. I don’t think he’s looking at their ERAs.
Your point can’t be made often enough. While many have dismissed the 5th starter competition and some of these other position battles based on insignificant stats, the fact of the matter is stats are just one area of evaluation. With many of the minor leaguers leaving camp, these last few weeks are where the Yanks will be able to get a better idea of where these guys are at, and in situations where two players are very close (ex Joba/Hughes) a good performance or two can tip the scales in their favor.
At first I was dismissive as well, but as I posted earlier this week I’ve reconsidered my take.
He’s not just looking at numbers. He’s looking at how they are working, what their approach is and how they are throwing. It won’t just be on a few preseason starts.
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