[image title="large_alfredo-aceves522" size="full" id="15835" align="center" linkto="full" ]
We have been bandying about the various options that the Yankees have at 5th starter for a while now, and I thought it might be interesting to add some numbers to the discussion. I asked people on Twitter to provide projections for each player in each role, assuming that they spent the entire season in that role. Fangraphs currently does something similar with projections, and noted sabermatrician Tom Tango is a major believer in crowdsourcing. Small sample size and sampling issues definitely apply, but I think the averaged projected performances are quite reasonable. Thank you to everyone who participated. These were the results:
As Starters (bottom row is the average)
[image title="Picture 1" size="full" id="15828" align="center" linkto="full" ]
As Relievers (bottom row is the average)
[image title="Picture 2" size="full" id="15829" align="center" linkto="full" ]
As you can see, this leaves us with the following permutations, assuming all three make the club:
[image title="Picture 3" size="full" id="15830" align="center" linkto="full" ]
So, what does this all mean? It suggests that Yankees fans believe that all three permutations will be fairly effective, and that there is really not much of a difference between the options. In fact, if you add a slightly above replacement level pitcher (say, Sergio Mitre) to option #3 to make up the innings that it lacks relative to option #1, #1 and #3 are practically identical. Even option #2, which lags a bit behind even before the replacement level innings are added, still only shows a difference of 5-6 runs over an entire season, which is equivalent to about half a win. Based on these numbers, it would make sense for the Yankees to have either Joba or Hughes in the rotation for developmental reasons. Since the computed difference to the club in 2010 would be marginal at best, the Yankees can consider developmental concerns when choosing a 5th starter.
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4 Responses to Crowdsourcing The Joba-Hughes-Aceves Debate
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TIQ IQ
Very good work Moshe and those that helped put it all into perspective with you.
One thing to consider in regards to Alfredo, he is older (27?) and therefore would be more able to handle the move from starter to BP and back without the old injury bug jumping all over him. Even though Joba and Phil are the stars of the future (I hope), I feel for Alfredo because, I think he is the more major league ready of the three but, that’s the way it works out sometimes.
I think that Aceves has the kind of stuff where the more batters see him, the less baffling he’ll be.Hope I’m wrong but I like him better as the
“Vulture.”
Excellent stuff, Mo. Confirms my estimation that the best 2010 team has Ace as the starter, and backs up your claim that for one win, you might as well focus on developing one of the high upside guys. Everybody wins.
The only thing that I would caution, and I probably should have included this in the post, is that there has to be a decent sized error bar with something like this, such that “confirm” is a strong word. I will say that those telling you it was ridiculous based solely on likely 2010 performance definitely lost a point here.