With the addition of Curtis Granderson and the loss of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon, some pundits have claimed that if the 2010 Yanks will have one Achilles heel heading into next season, it will be facing the Lefty starter. But is that true? Off the top of my head I know that Nick Johnson is actually better against Lefties, and despite last year the switch-hitting Randy Winn has held his own from both sides of the plate.
To check to see if this is accurate, I’m going to make up a lineup with each player’s numbers facing lefthanders. I’ll use career OBP and OPS so the table setters and power guys are all represented fairly. Don’t get too hung up on the lineup order, I’m just working around Girardi’s recent comments that 1, 3 and 4 are set and putting the power guys in order without paying much attention to going R/L.
1-Derek Jeter (R) .409 OBP .909 OPS
2-Nick Johnson (L) .424 OBP .863 OPS
3-Mark Teixeira (S) .394 OBP .931 OPS
4-Alex Rodriguez (R) .392 OBP .968 OPS
5-Jorge Posada (S) .381 OBP .877 OPS
6-Nick Swisher (S) .395 OBP .834 OPS
7-Robinson Cano (L) .341 OBP .794 OPS
8-Randy Winn (S) .332 OBP .758 OPS/Brett Gardner (L) .310 OBP .627 OPS
9-Curtis Granderson (L) .270 OBP .614 OPS
The bottom the the order clearly suffers, but last years most frequent #8 and #9 hitters were some combination of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Jose Molina. So it’s tough to argue the drop off from the 2009 team will be very steep. To start the season, I think the Yanks will sit Gardner facing Lefties and look to give Winn some ABs until Brett proves that he can play everyday, which he hasn’t done yet. Jamie Hoffman is a possibility facing Lefties as well, but I have to think the more experienced Winn will get the nod.
Granderson will start games against Lefties, but will probably get lifted in late-inning situations with men on base. But otherwise, they’ll give him every chance to get past his struggles and see if Long can fix his approach. Who that pinch hitter will be is an interesting question. Winn starts facing Lefties, so it won’t be Brett Gardner. Hoffman? We’re not even sure he makes the team. My best guess is that Girardi will look to give Posada days off against Left handed pitching and will use him as a bat off the bench. That would mean Francisco Cervelli ([R] .345 OBP .724 OPS in just 30 PA) starts most games facing Lefties.
All totaled, here’s your likely starting lineup with a Lefthander on the mound:
1-Derek Jeter (R) .409 OBP .909 OPS
2-Nick Johnson (L) .424 OBP .863 OPS
3-Mark Teixeira (S) .394 OBP .931 OPS
4-Alex Rodriguez (R) .392 OBP .968 OPS
5-Nick Swisher (S) .395 OBP .834 OPS
6-Robinson Cano (L) .341 OBP .794 OPS
7-Randy Winn (S) .332 OBP .758 OPS
8-Francisco Cervelli [R] .345 OBP .724 OPS
9-Curtis Granderson (L) .270 OBP .614 OPS
With Posada getting a day off and available as a pinch hitter.
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5 Responses to Are the 2010 Yanks more susceptible to Lefties?
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TIQ IQ
I still believe Granderson and Swisher will platoon the 2 hole. Even though Curtis has a lower obp he still scores more per/pa then Johnson. For example in 08 Granderson’s numbers facing the starting pitcher in his first plate appearance of the game put up the following terrible line .202 ba, .275 obp, .370 slg, for an ops of .645. and yet he scored 25 runs in 131 pa.
This issue to me is when does obp trump the ability to score runs once on base? Can Nick Johnson score from first on a Teixeira double?
Why would Posada be getting a day off when there’s a lefty on the mound? I’d consider it more likely for him to get days off when there’s a righty on the mound, since the lineup could more easily take the hit.
For the reasons I detailed, plus Cervelli has hit Lefties better than Righties. Which is no surprise since he bats Right handed.
First of all Randy Winn is not or will not be the Yankees starting leftfielder in place of Brett Gardner. Gardner has a career .290 avg vs lefties at the professional level
I like your approach, Steve. I did a similar exercise with obp. iso slugging and double play tendency. Against lefties, Swish is probably the best protection for Alex, with 1-3-4 set. If he has trouble, I’d try switching Tex to 5 and look to jam Grandy or Gardy (depending on development) in 2, pushing Nick the Stick back to 3. But Swish would do nicely up there, too.
Rooster, I think Curtis may improve against lefties before you complete the analysis to prove it wasn’t the hitters behind him that got him to score more.
Posada’s slugging split makes this a good notion to me, to keep the old rooster crowing.