A little more than a week ago, I posted an article that was a relatively sobering look at everyone’s favorite prospect, Jesus Montero. In that article, I used information/got inspiration from a FanGraphs article, showing what Jesus Montero would be worth to the Yankees per year for his cost controlled years if he spent all his time at DH. The result was about a three win player, which is very nice for a cost controlled guy.
Of course, though, Jesus is determined to stick at catcher. So today, I’m going to be a bit more rosy and bullish in my projections of Jesus than I was in my previous article. I will adjust the calculations to assume a two different playing time scenarios:
1. Full time catcher (~120 games).
2. Split catcher/1B/DH (think Victor Martinez).
For defense, which Smith alludes to in the comments, I’ll assume two things as well:
1. He’s at best a zero run backstop.
2. He’s a Mike Piazza/Jorge Posada type back there, so we’ll call it, as Smith does -10 or so (it will be fewer negative runs for playing time scenario #2.
For offense, I’m going to the .379 wOBA across 650 PAs I laid out in my first post.
For the most positive of scenarios, we’ll run situation one: a full time, zero run catcher. After catching 120 games, His positional adjustment would be 8.2 per Smith. So, running our WAR calculation, we get 5.10 WAR. Now, that’s assuming that he’s a zero run defender behind the plate, which isn’t likely to happen. Adjusting for a -10 run defense, we get 4.14 WAR, still a good mark. In fact, that mark would’ve made him the third most valuable catcher in the AL, behind Joe Mauer (8.1) and Victor Martinez (who played 85 games at catcher; 4.9 WAR).
Speaking of Martinez, let’s say he does something like Victor did in 2009–85 games catching, 70 games at first base. Using Martinez’s position adjustment of 0.6, Montero would produce (assuming 0 runs at first and -7 behind the plate) 3.71 WAR. Of course, Jesus could always be better at first base. Like Smith does, we’ll call Jesus +2.5 at first. Adding that to our -7 catching, we get -4.5 runs defensively. Running that scenario, we get 4.30 WAR, which actually makes him more valuable than a full time, bad defensive catcher.
Again, I’ll reiterate, these are in no way “crystal ball” calculations. I’m just having a little fun here, seeing what Montero could be worth. Like all prospects, he could either wildly under-perform these calculations or he could out-perform them. Being fair, I think he’ll probably never be all that great in the field but he could definitely hit for something better than a .379 wOBA. Either way, I’m damn excited to follow Jesus for another season and I hope we can see him in the Bronx in September. Best of luck in 2010 to El Carpentiero.
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8 Responses to A More Rosy Look/Projection for Montero
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TIQ IQ
I think assuming his defensive ceiling is zero runs doesn’t take into consideration the effect hard work can do for something like defense. Some of the superior defenders in my lifetime (who came up as all bat/no glove) weren’t supposed to ever be anything with the glove. I don’t think it’s wise to assume anything about the defense of someone willing to put in the work.
I like Hardball Times offensive projections a lot better.
What’s the best possible outcome for Jesus? 5-6 WAR? 7 WAR is probably his absolute ceiling, right?
If this happens, I think Yankees Universe would collectively JIMP (…but hopefully in their own pants so I guess it’s JITP).
I’m assuming Jesus becomes a slightly above average catcher defensively through hard work in the best possible case here.
A lot of people assumed Derek Jeter would continue his downward defensive spiral in 2009, and that any real improvement was beyond the realm of possibility.
A lot of people assumed Yogi Berra would never even be acceptable defensively. Ditto George Brett and a whole lot of other guys.
I’m a bit less pessimistic about Montero’s chances to stay behind the plate then i was when last time i saw clips of him as a catcher.He appears to be crouching a lot more comfortably now and actually appears comfortable behind the plate.
The problem is, Romine looks like a starting defensive catcher who might hit enough to be an all-star and Romine’s knowledge and leadership behind the plate seems to be very, very much above Montero’s currently, at least from reports.
Additionally, YAnkees are just loaded at catcher and you”d like to think you’d be getting better use of your assets by finding a spot for Montero’s bat somewhere (even DH) while taking advantage of 2-3 of your catching prospects with better defensive upside and leadership behind the plate.
Sounds like Kyle Higioshioka and Damien Tavaras have a chance to be very, very good players also and Murphy is athletic enough to play elswhere if his bat is special.
Not even worried about Gary Sanchez yet, he’s barely 17.
Playing a mediocre defensive Montero at Catcher sort of makes the rest of them moot.That would be “Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of victory.”
You have ALL this great catching talent and you go every day with a hitter who is only an average to a below average catcher.
It’s a conundrum really.Do we really want Montero to get good enough to be a mediocre catcher and get rid of 4 great prospects behind him or do we want Montero’s bat in the line-up and 2-3 of these others kids developing as catchers also.
Some good thoughts Lefty,
Watching Montero this spring and hearing the Yankees thoughts on him I have a few comments.
1-I also like the way he sits ,for a big catcher he looks very comfortable ,and when he goes to his position with runners on he still gets very low showing good flexibility for a big man.
2-He has soft yet stong hands ,the ball dies in his mitt,Kinda like Molina and the opposite of Posada.
3-I have not seen him throw enough but all accounts of his arm are plus.
4-He looks good blocking balls.
5-His foot work appears to need work and needs to improve his quickness.
The Yankee ‘s believe this kid can catch.Girardi has had very positive comments on Montero,along with Posada.
Most importantly Montero believes he’s a catcher.The kid has a swagger that I have not seen from a Yankee prospect since Jeter.
He has a slow release but, a strong arm. They have changed his footwork on his throws to help speed it up…I haven’t seen enough of his new style to comment going forward.
His hands are not as soft as one would like but, not nearly as stone like as Posadas. I would say he has good hands…not on the same level as Molina (by a small bit) but, not far away. Of course this is all from seeing him last year and not enough this year.
So, maybe he has improved more then I realize, I hope you are closer to being right, then I am.
Is that enough sucking up?