Sunday Links

Despite the complete lack of any Yankee-related Baseball news, there’s still plenty of terrific content and analysis out there around the web. And they wonder why the newspapers are dying. Here’s some links for your reading pleasure from around the blogosphere:
-11 Days Until Spring Training: Lefty Gomez
Matt over at Fack Youk continues his countdown series profiling old time Yanks that every serious Yankee fan should have some familiarity with. Other recent posts have included Whitey Ford, Thurman Munson, Lou Piniella and Gil McDougald.
Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave discusses some long-overdue praise of the much-maligned Yankee GM Brian Cashman. If last off season was an example of binge spending, then this one can only be described as a model of efficiency.
-Nick Johnson vs. Johnny Damon: Who’s The Better Two-Spot Hitter?
Greg Fertel of the fine Pending Pinstripes blog breaks down the hitters and comes up with what many fans may find to be a surprising result. Make sure to also check out their Top 30 Prospect countdown, which currently stands at #11 for Mark Melancon.
-Hot Stove Report: Long deals don’t mean aces are off market
Tim Marchman of SI discusses the recent trend of signing young pitchers to long term deals, and concludes that it doesn’t change their long term prospects of being traded all that much. I couldn’t agree more, and even go a step further in questioning the wisdom of locking up young pitchers who’ve already had questions of health and/or stuff. I’ll have a full length piece going up on this later today.
In case you missed it, our very own Moshe Mandel was one of the guest bloggers over at LoHud this week. He did a piece on Dellin Betances and the pitfalls of high-risk, high reward pitching prospects. Readers of this blog already know that if it’s something by Mo, it’s worth reading. Thanks need to go out to Chad for his support and praise as well.
As always, thanks for reading and enjoy the Super Bowl tonight.
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“-Nick Johnson vs. Johnny Damon: Who’s The Better Two-Spot Hitter?
Greg Fertel of the fine Pending Pinstripes blog breaks down the hitters and comes up with what many fans may find to be a surprising result.”
With all due respect to the time and effort put in by Greg in reaching his conclusion that NJ will be somewhat better, I have to take issue because his analysis is based on several assumptions that are of dubious validity.Most importantly, he prorated both players based on 600 PAs for the upcoming season. Unfortunately, this is an assumption that doesn’t conform with reality. In the six years since NJ left the Yankees and had an opportuniity to play fulltime, he has accumulated only 2191 PAs- an average of 365,17 PAs/year – and has achieved the magic 600 PA figure only once.By contrast, JD has had more than 600 PAs each of the past 12 seasons- averaging approximately 678 PAs/ season- and still managed over 620 PAs in both 2008 and 2009 even as his body allegedly began to break down.Obviously, NJs total PAs will benefit somewhat from the fact that he will be hitting exclusively in the second spot and that JD’s may have declined due to age; however, the reality remains that to give NJ such a significant edge in hitting based on an assumption of equal PAs ignores the vast historic advantsge JD has in durability. In my opinion, JD would have projected as the better # 2 hitter than NJ for the upcoming season … but of course this is all water under the Willis Avenue Bridge.
Good points. I’m sure the Yanks are banking on NJ enjoying better health since he won’t have to play the field, but his track record in inarguable.
BTW-Here’s Chris’ breakdown of his injury history.
http://www.theyankeeu.com/2010/01/a-quick-look-at-nick-johnsons-injury-history-13857
It’s all over the map, so its hard to say he’ll be more healthy as a DH. It’s not like they all occurred playing the field. But I suppose the less opportunities he’s exposed to, the better.
You’re right that the odds are that Johnson won’t have as many PA as Damon, but I was more looking to find out who was the better fit on a rate basis. I have no idea if either them will be injured; there is no real way of knowing, so I think the best way to compare the two is to see how they project to produce under the same conditions.
I admit that it’s a flaw in my argument, but I’m not sure what a better option would be. Also, for what it’s worth, the people who have voted on Nick Johnson’s projection on FanGraphs project 556 PA for him. For Damon, they project 599. So I guess I’m not alone in thinking that their 2010 PA could be close.
Also, thanks for the link, Steve.
No problem Greg, I’m a regular reader and fan of your site.
To add, you didn’t factor in the SLG advantage that NJ figures to get in Yankee Stadium, which could pump up his value further. Not that I have any way of knowing exactly how you’d calculate that, but it stands to reason. Lefties always have a few outs converted to HRs in lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium. JD had that benefit in 2009 of course, so to truly compare apples to apples you’d need to project NJ’s bat into YS3 somehow.
Fair comments from both of you.One other minor point which weighs in favor of Nick.First, I think based on NJ’s past history, CHONE may be underprojecting his OBP a touch(~.1 to .2).