Coming into 2009, we weren’t quite sure what was going to happen to Derek Jeter’s bat. In 2008, Jeter had a 102 OPS+, which was the first time he was below 110 since 1997. His wOBA was .343, still a good mark, but it was the first time ever in a full season that he had a wOBA under .345. His wRC+, 110, was also a career low, as was his anemic IsoP mark of .107. It looked like age was finally beginning to catch up with Derek. I even wondered if his decline was actually coming. Then, 2009 happened.
In 2009, Jeter put up a line of .334/.406/.465/.871 with a 132 OPS+ (tied for second highest in his career), a .390 wOBA, and a 142 wRC+. It was truly a bounce back year for Derek, and I was glad my doubts in him were unfounded. Perhaps I should’ve known better in 2008. Perhaps I should’ve known that Jeter wouldn’t put up a year as “bad” as 2008. So, should we expect a repeat of 2009? Let’s look into Derek’s projections and see.
My average line for Jeter winds up at .310/.382/.434/.816. All of those numbers are numbers that represent “downgrades” from what Jeter did in 2009. I use the term downgrade lightly because those numbers, especially out of a shortstop, would be very welcome. The biggest drop here comes in power, which should be expected. Jeter’s career IsoP is a respectable .142. However, his highest IsoP in the last four years is .141; his projected IsoP is .124. Expecting Derek to put up power higher than what he has in the last two years–.120-.130 IsoP–is unrealistic. However, it appears that his contact skills are still there.
As Moshe posted, it appears that all of Jeter’s power in 2009 was to right field. This is right in line with Jeter’s career numbers, which show a big power disparity in right field’s favor when it comes to DJ. While there’s no way to project this for 2010, I think it’s safe to assume the same trend will show itself in the upcoming season.
Here are Jeter’s HR plots for the available seasons :
2009
2008
2007
2006
2006 shows a pretty evenly spread out distribution of home runs, 2007 is skewed to left field, with 2008 and 2009 giving credence to the more recent trend of Jeter’s right-field-centric power. While there is always a chance for a reversal of this trend and a return to the 2007 “model”, I doubt it will happen. Jeter’s approach at the plate–to let the ball travel far into the zone–and his “inside out” swing lend to more hits and more power to right field.
Frankly, I don’t think any of us care how Derek does it as long as he keeps doing it. We’ve been treated to a great hitting shortstop for the last 15 years and if last year, and these projections, is any indications, we will continue to see it for at least one more year.
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4 Responses to Projecting the Captain
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TIQ IQ
iirc, In ’08 wasn’t Jeter afflicted with being hit in the hand and with leg problems? I do remember he was going along fine until he got his hand mashed in June(?), and then got hit in the same hand a bit later. Then, for most of the rest of the year he hit little but singles.
And then in ’07 he had leg injuries for a good part of the year, though he played through them.
Maybe I’m wrong, but i’m pretty sure he had real limiting injury issues he played through for those 2 years.
In 2008 jeter was on a hot streak, he had gotten hit a few times, once in boston i believe, and when he fell way off was when that piece of garbage cabrera from baltimore hit him hard on the hand, jeter was not the same after that.. he played with a bad injury, girardi should have sat him or DLed him until he was healed. he started to hit late in the year…he also drilled arod a few times that year.. .334 last year, how many every day SS hit more than that.. 200 plus hits..and people want to say non sense about him..5years 20mil.. finish up third all time.. stay healthy kid and don’t get married..that will preserve your image..marry when you retire..
I grew up on Bobby Meachem, Wayne Tolleson and Rafael Santana playing short for us. Jeter could have a 50% dropoff from his 2009 numbers and I’d still be happy with his production. I fear for the day he retires and we go back to a league average SS, the young bucks aint gonna know what to do with themselves.
very well said…. you don’ know what you had until it’s gone.. how about jerry kenny or bobby murcer, we had a ton SS since the 60s . who comes close…