In a FanHouse piece in which Frankie Piliere outlines a handful of former prospects with something to prove in 2010, Piliere cites the Yankees’ young starter/reliever, Phil Hughes. “Bullpen or no bullpen, we saw the real Hughes start to shine through in 2009,” writes the former Texas scout. Piliere attributes Hughes’ newfound success to him seeming “more aggressive and comfortable in every way” last season, as these traits allowed the 23-year old to look like a “different pitcher” on the mound when compared to the discernibly diffident version we saw in 2008. Much of this aggressiveness, notes Piliere, was derived from Hughes’ confidence in one pitch, in particular—his fastball.
In 2009, working primarily as Mariano Rivera’s setup man, Hughes’ fastball averaged 93.7 mph. In 2008, as a starter, Hughes’ velocity averaged nearly 3 mph less at 91.2 mph. The noticeable uptick in velocity can help to explain the changes in Hughes’ demeanor from 2008 to 2009 as he was simply working with more gas last year, in a relief role (he could let it “fly”), as opposed to two years ago. As stated by Piliere, Hughes had “more confidence in his fastball command,” and, obviously, it is a lot easier to believe in your fastball when you throw it harder since added velocity means not having to worry as much about your overall location or control. The numbers bare this out with regards to swing percentage. In 2008, while in the rotation, hitters only swung at 16.5% of the pitches Hughes threw outside of the zone – he throws his fastball the most, so many of those off-the-plate offerings were fastballs – whereas, in 2009, hitters swung at 25.7% of the pitches Hughes threw that were outside the strike zone. Also, hitters swung at more pitches in the zone a season ago – 69.0% compared to 64.4% in 2008 – while making less contact (82.5% in 2009 as a reliever versus 91.5% in 2008 as a starter). Thus, pitching out of the ‘pen coaxed an extra 3 mph (roughly) out of Hughes’ California-bred arm, which basically led to his now vaunted confidence and celebrated aggressiveness.
This big question, of course, is whether or not this confidence, which was so essential to the Yankees in 2009, will remain with Hughes if he is reinserted into the rotation, where he will lose the added velocity he gained last season.
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7 Responses to Hughes' fastball confidence
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TIQ IQ
Why would he lose the velocity? It seems imperative to keep it, you just absolutely convinced me. That was the most concise and convincing analysis, supported by pertinent statistics: thanks!
Some quick points on Hughes and his velocity
1- Hughes’ velocity may have been depressed in 2008 because of the series of injuries he had beginning with the pulled hamstring in 2007 and a resulting change in mechanics.In fact, Piliere alluded to this in a piece he penned in 2008. I remember when Hughes first came up in 2007(Texas game), he was consistently sitting at 94/ 95 but he didn’t seem to ever recapture that through 2008.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/anatomy-of-a-player-phil-hughes/ referencing Piliere within the article
2- Pitchers generally pick up 2-3 mph on the fastball when pitching out of the bullpen for the reasons aptly pointed out by Chris. I remember watching Smoltz for years on TBS. As a starter, he would average 92/93 with the fastball occasionally touching 95 when he muscled up in a big situation; as a reliever he would consistently sit at 95/96.
3- Even if Hughes’ “added gas” in 2009 were to diminish if he were to become a starter again, his confidence should be bolstered by the fact that he has now enjoyed success at the major league
level,In 2008, he was pitching with a diminished arsenal, a lack of Triple AAA preparation and no track record. That won’t be the case in 2010.
Thanks for your thoughts, classicsteve. The difference in tendency bullpen vs. starting is understandable as a matter of pacing, conserving energy, but it would seem the very convincing arguments Chris presents augurs for Phil to maintain the factors that have lent the improvements.
Reading the related articles, mostly from last winter, prior to his bullpen success, it seems he has adopted the “power curve” with less movement that has served him better to disguise curve from fastball. And by Chris’ stats batters were biting more both over the plate and off, and missing more. A dandy thing, and the efficiency may offset extra effort to wing it. I hope Phil keeps the approach, and adds to it.
Yep, he’s proud of his fastball. He whips out his big, hot throbbing fastball and says to the hitters “HOW YA LIKE ME NOW, HUH?!?”
That red hat really is an atrocity.
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