From baseballprojection.com, courtesy of RLYW:
Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life. We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won’t win that many games.
But yet I’m projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I’ve ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.
Wow. CHONE, for those who do not know, is one of the handful of widely respected projection systems, and a “highest ever” ranking for the 2010 iteration of the Yankees is pretty amazing. As a stated last week, projections are simply estimates based upon expected performance, and the amount of variance typical to a Major League season makes them more suited for use as a broad guide than for precise evaluations. That said, this simply confirms my belief that on paper, the 2010 Yankees project to be about as good, if not better, than the 2009 version.
This brings me to a question for debate. Do you think that Brian Cashman’s moves this offseason made the Yankees better or worse than they were when the 2009 season ended?
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7 Responses to CHONE's 2010 Yankees Ranking Is Their Highest Ever
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The Yankees improved, on paper. None of this matters until the games are played, but the offense projects to be about the same, so long as Granderson bounces back and Gardner’s 284 PA last season give an accurate sense of his full season value. So they project to have the game’s best offense. And now they have a legit 4th starter, a glaring weakness last sesason. Its tough to see them not winning 100 games again.
I don’t think that there is any question that the 2010 New York Yankees are better on paper than the 2009 New York Yankees were at the beginning of the season, even if you discount the injuries to Arod and others. The exchange of Damon/Matsui/Melky for Granderson/Johnson/Gardner is pretty even all around, with a slight edge to 2010, but the real addition is Javier Vazquez. He essentially replaces Wang, Mitre, Gaudin, and a bunch of other failures.
The bullpen is also stronger than it was at this point last year.
That said, I’m not sure if this team will match the 2009 win total. The 2009 team depended on a lot of standout performances from aging players that could very well be outlying. I’m thinking about Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera here, and to a lesser extent Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano. There’s some regression coming, and Jeter’s age could make his particularly worse.
Agree with virtually everything you say. Additionally,the 103 wins of last year is an uncommonly high total exceeded only once in the last 14 years, tied on one other occasion and outdistanced the pythagorean expectation by 8. So, despite how good this team may look in February I think an expectation of 98 to 100 wins- did someone say 99- is very reasonable.
Projections are great, but lets look at the facts first and then think about projections. The Yankees gained 11 games on the sox after the allstar break last year. Over that same period, the Yankees had a 3.94 ERA. Now add to that base 1) a better outfield defense 2) a good starting pitcher 3) a younger DH/LF and I think you are looking at a 105+ win team. The key to the season (besides staying healthy) is how the #5 spot in the lineup protects ARod.
we have players that start out slow, Tex, cano, gardy, and CC, if we can break that trend before may, we can win 100 plus, again with no major injuries.. seems we have been a post A.S. game teams for years now, i hope girardi does not push Mo in april again, that eighth inn. stuff early in the year is not called for.. Mo also is a hot weather guy.. so if we come out of april .500 or better we will be in great shape.. if some of you stat guys could bring up april Win , loss for the last 5 or so years i would be nice.. i’m not good on the research stuff. thanks. Steve you are right on about the 5th spot, grandy should be the guy, not posada, no way cano.. put grandy with the power we got him for and for all that speed, cutting down on DPs.. hit jorge 6 , cano ,7 , swish, 8 , brett 9,, whats your take..
Does anyone have any stats on how Yankee player’s performance is in their first year with the team vs. their second?
I have a theory (but no data to support it) that most improve in year two, as year one is a huge adjustment to the pressure and media attention. Therefore, I see improvement from Tex, CC, AJ, Swish, and seconf tier players like Mitre, Gardner, ( I think of 2009 as yr 1 for him).
Any NYY seamheads with research time let me know if you get a chance!
It looks like the first 6 of you, have covered all the things that need to go right or, could go wrong. Let’s hope for all the right things coming together for 2010.