Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life. We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won’t win that many games.
But yet I’m projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I’ve ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.
Wow. CHONE, for those who do not know, is one of the handful of widely respected projection systems, and a “highest ever” ranking for the 2010 iteration of the Yankees is pretty amazing. As a stated last week, projections are simply estimates based upon expected performance, and the amount of variance typical to a Major League season makes them more suited for use as a broad guide than for precise evaluations. That said, this simply confirms my belief that on paper, the 2010 Yankees project to be about as good, if not better, than the 2009 version.
This brings me to a question for debate. Do you think that Brian Cashman’s moves this offseason made the Yankees better or worse than they were when the 2009 season ended?
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