For those Yankeeist followers who don’t have a BP subscription, PECOTA has been updated yet again. Previously BP had taken flack because the site projected the Yankees to miss the playoffs. The site managers reacted to the criticism, reviewed the numbers, and put the Yankees in a 1st place tie with the Red Sox. Earlier this morning I posted my criticism of the updated numbers.
Well, BP has responded yet again. PECOTA now predicts the Yankees as the best team in baseball. The bombers are projected to win 94 games, with the Red Sox hot on their heals with 92 victories.
At first glance the improved performance from the Yankees is addition by subtraction. For example, CC Sabathia’s projected numbers look the same (you can’t access old projections, as far as I can tell) except those numbers translate to about 10 more runs than they did yesterday, which is about one win. A.J. and Pettitte now project much better as well, with the bulk of the improvement coming in relative value, not overall performance.
BP now feels that Joba will have a true breakout season, but that Mariano Rivera will have his worst season ever. PECOTA also still foresees the beginning of the end for Derek Jeter, and the end for Jorge Posada. Feel free to extrapolate from there.
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4 Responses to Baseball Prospectus now has Yanks in 1st
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TIQ IQ
Hi Mike & Larry,
Just wanted to say I read your blog at least once a day. Thanks for just top-notch blurbs about our favorite team. I'm sure you have good readership, but i'm looking forward to the day when a buncha yahoos have day-long threads on all your posts :)
Thanks for the kind words. We appreciate your feedback.
I'm also eagerly awaiting the day our readership is large and active enough to generate a lot of comments. Getting to see how others have reacted to something I've written is my favorite part of contributing to the blog.
Thanks Nil; we'd love to be a sounding board for overenthusiastic and knowledgable Yankee fans.
It remains to be seen if we'll ever have a big enough audience to yield day-long back-and-forths, but nonetheless we very much appreciate your loyal readership.
I could also handle it if we provided a sounding board for lackadaisical and uninformed Yankee fans.