This past weekend I had the pleasure of watching the 2009 World Series highlight DVD, which is about an hour and 15 minutes long but absolutely flew by. It’s well-produced and narrated by MLB Network’s Curt Chaplin, who has a badass baritone.
One of the things that struck me while reliving the glorious 2009 playoff run was how frequently Johnny Damon seemed to keep showing up on the bases and scoring. I think Damon’s poor ALDS made me forget that he rebounded to perform quite nicely in the final two rounds.
Then I started to think about what the team will look like with Nick the Stick in the two-hole. And while I obviously think it’s going to be great, with Stick providing plenty of RBI opportunities for Tex and A-Rod, I do wonder if Johnson’s lack of speed will be a hindrance of
any kind. We’re not going to see Stick go first to third all that often if ever, and there may be circumstances where he might not even be able to score from second depending on where/how a potential RBI hit is struck.
I realize this is all completely circumstantial and likely unquantifiable and also flies in the face of my sabermetric biases. I was also arguably the biggest Johnson proponent on the Internet, so
I’m obviously very excited to have OBP Jesus on the team. And Johnson’s lack of speed won’t much matter when he is presumably being driven in by extra base hits.
That being said, while seeing Damon in action in a highlight reel is certainly no reason to cave into overpaying him, if some sort of reasonable deal can be made to bring Johnny back, he’s definitely still the best option for left field, defensive warts and all. We all know Brett Gardner is not a realistic starting outfielder, though he is an ideal late-inning replacement. Additionally, I’m not sold on throwing a huge contract at Carl Crawford next year, so even if Damon will only come back for two, the Yankees should go for it.
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5 Responses to Thoughts on bringing Damon back
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I think its unlikely the Yankees will bat Johnson 2nd. More likely I see them throwing Granderson in the spot for his speed. Batting in front of Tex and A-Rod should also help him see better pitches to improve his OBP. I predict Johnson more likely bats around 7th or 8th.
Also, Damon makes too much sense. I struggle to see him landing away from the Yankees. They need a left fielder. He needs a job. He slots brilliantly right back into the lineup. I see an Abreu '09 type deal coming his way.
I think it's OK to over pay Damon, just as long as he doesn't get too many years. 2 years has to be the max, but if they have to power pay per year, so be it. Just don't get stuck with him for too long.
"We all know Brett Gardner is not a realistic starting outfielder"
Who's "we all"? I don't know this. Is there a sabermetric crystal ball formula for players with less than 500 MLB PAs? Plenty of players with Gardner's skill set have had long and productive careers. Brett Butler comes to mind.
In half a season marred by injury, Gardner put up a .345 OBP, stole 26 bases and hit six triples. I don't see any reason why he couldn't improve and be a huge catalyst at the bottom of the lineup in 2010.
Brendan,
You're the second person that made the Brett Gardner/Brett Butler comparison to me in the past week. I think most sabermetrically inclined Yankee fans would be thrilled if Gardner wound up having a career like Butler, who fashioned a .377 OBP over 17 seasons.
And it's possible he can, although I'm not necessarily convinced that a player with Gardner's skill set in the AL East circa 2010 can thrive the way Brett Butler did 20 years ago in a considerably different offensive environment. Speed and no power just don't carry much water anymore, especially in the gauntlet that is the modern day American League.
The good news is that Brett put up a stronger 2009 than many were expecting, and SG at RLYW projects Gardner to post a .348 OBP in 348 at-bats for 2010. Bill James projects a .368, but that seems borderline insane.
If Gardner can get himself on base more than 35% of the time out of the nine slot in the lineup, then I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong on Grit. Even if he can match his .345 I could live with it. I just don't see Gardy reaching that plateau as a starter over the course of a full season. Pitchers won't have a reason to pitch him carefully since there's no chance he'll put one in the seats. He'll draw his walks against the Andy Sonnanstines of the world, but any good pitcher worth his salt should be able to retire Gardner.
Someone asked me in a post a few days ago about why the Yankees need to upgrade in left field given the team's success in the late 90s with a melange of crappy left fielders, and to me the answer isn't that the Yankees need to upgrade in left field; they don't. They're already projecting to be a 95-100 win team on paper.
However, if the possibility exists to improve the team, then I believe it's the GM's responsibility to explore every potential scenario to strenghthen the ballclub. Despite his abysmal defense, Damon's bat destroys Gardner's, and if a deal can be worked out — on realistic, reasonable terms — then it behooves Cashman to resign Damon and relegate Gardner to the bench, which I believe is where he is best utilized and less liable to have his shortcomings exposed.
I agree with strengthening the team whenever possible. I don't know how much better the Yankees are next year with a 36-year-old noodle-armed Damon out in left. He performed ridiculously in his walk year, and we're never going to see 24 homers or 126 OPS+ from him ever again. We could expect a serious fall-off in his offensive production and a continuation of the decline we've seen in the field. Maybe still worth a 2/$14, but why not give a kid who scored 48 times and stole 26 in 284 PAs a shot?
"I'm not necessarily convinced that a player with Gardner's skill set in the AL East circa 2010 can thrive the way Brett Butler did 20 years ago in a considerably different offensive environment."
Really? You need look no further than center field in Beantown. Not saying Gardner is as good as Ellsbury, but he's cut from the same cloth, tons of speed, very little power. Over a full season I could see Gardner hitting a few more triples, a few less homers, and stealing about the same number of bases. Even if he falls short of that, I'm confident the defensive upgrade from Damon would at least make it a wash and save the team upwards of $10 million.
I'm open to being proven wrong. But I'd rather see Grit get a chance to prove himself than lock ourselves in to two years of the denouement of Johnny Damon's career.