The other day, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projected standings for 2010 and, needless to say, Yankee fans were not pleased to see their beloved Bombers penciled in for third place (despite an impressive 93-69 record). However, as SG at Replacement Level Yankee pointed out upon PECOTA’s release, the numbers involved to construct the standings were off (an issue of human error, it seems, on Baseball Prospectus’ part). Realizing their mistake, BP has issued the according adjustments (h/t to RAB) and, consequently, we now have altered projections.
Here’s the original, for comparison’s sake:
Now, here are PECOTA’s adjusted numbers:
Clearly, there are some dramatic differences here with regards to team placement. The Yankees are still on track to own a 93-69 record, however, that’s good enough to win the AL East (although PECOTA projects a tie with Boston). Notice that the runs scored/allowed numbers are markedly depressed across the board when viewed relative to the earlier projections. The Rays are subsequently in third place now, rather than first, as they seemed to be the biggest beneficiary of BP’s earlier mathematical wrinkles. While the games must still be played, I think these projections display just how difficult the American League East is and will be in 2010 (it contains the three best AL teams).
Screenshots via BP
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