The other day, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projected standings for 2010 and, needless to say, Yankee fans were not pleased to see their beloved Bombers penciled in for third place (despite an impressive 93-69 record). However, as SG at Replacement Level Yankee pointed out upon PECOTA’s release, the numbers involved to construct the standings were off (an issue of human error, it seems, on Baseball Prospectus’ part). Realizing their mistake, BP has issued the according adjustments (h/t to RAB) and, consequently, we now have altered projections.
Here’s the original, for comparison’s sake:
Now, here are PECOTA’s adjusted numbers:
Clearly, there are some dramatic differences here with regards to team placement. The Yankees are still on track to own a 93-69 record, however, that’s good enough to win the AL East (although PECOTA projects a tie with Boston). Notice that the runs scored/allowed numbers are markedly depressed across the board when viewed relative to the earlier projections. The Rays are subsequently in third place now, rather than first, as they seemed to be the biggest beneficiary of BP’s earlier mathematical wrinkles. While the games must still be played, I think these projections display just how difficult the American League East is and will be in 2010 (it contains the three best AL teams).
Screenshots via BP
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9 Responses to PECOTA: Adjusted Standings
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TIQ IQ
While I fully agree that Nate Silver is a brilliant statistician, I still want to understand how there could be a 9-win variance between the PECOTA and CAIRO projections. It seems to me like it should be a lot tighter than 9 wins between the two projection systems.
Also, for the record, I don’t think the Rays have the capacity to score over 800 runs. I know it’s very fashionable to consider the Rays as a perennial contender after they broke through in 2008 but I still look at that lineup and see Longoria and nothing else. Forgive me for not being a blind believer in Ben Zobrist’s ability to play at 8.6 WAR…
Regarding why there’d be a nine win difference between PECOTA and CAIRO, it comes down to a few things.
a) The biggest factor in determining a team’s projection is how you allocate the playing time. How aggressive or conservative you are here can make a big difference. For my first run of CAIRO I was probably a little too optimistic about the health of the regulars, and will probably knock that playing time down some which will probably make the Yankees closer to a 98-99 win team.
b) For players who are in their mid-20s to mid-30s and have at least three or four seasons in the majors, the projection systems are going to be pretty close to each other. Variance in projections comes in how they translate minor league performance, how they adjust for park, and how they handle aging and regression. PECOTA is notoriously optimistic on young players and notoriously pessimistic with older players. CAIRO is actually probably the reverse. My minor league translations are pretty harsh, and I don’t dock players for aging as much as I think PECOTA does.
c) Projecting defense is an inexact science at best. Factoring defense into the team projection and looking at how it trickles down to the pitching staff can have a non-trivial impact on your overall projections. Team defenses can range from 50 runs below average to 50 runs above average and that’s a swing of 10 wins.
Also, Nate Silver’s not really involved with PECOTA anymore. It’s been handed off to Clay Davenport, who’s a very smart guy as well, but since it’s not his system he may not know all the intricacies about it yet.
Thanks for the explanation, SG. Definitely interesting to learn more about how each system comes up with its conclusions.
Awesome, it’s SG.
@MJ
About 1/4 of Zobrist’s value came from his fielding which will almost definitely regress in 2010. Personally, I’d pencil Zobrist in for about 5.5 WAR with a wOBA in the .370′s.
I agree that the Rays won’t score 800 runs.
I don’t foresee Zobrist posting a WAR that high again either, because that’s an obscenely good WAR. That said, I don’t see why 800 runs is so much of an “impossibility”, according to you.
Rays lineup:
Upton
Crawford
Longoria
Pena
Zobrist
Burrell
Shoppach/Joyce (both 7 and 8 are dependant on the starter. Kapler and Navarro wold be Kapler/Navarro 7-8)
Kapler/Navarro
Bartlett
I can see that unit having another solid offensive season.
You can write that lineup any way you like and I still only see Longoria there. Upton is, at this point, totally unreliable as an everyday player. Immature, oft-injured, and showed an alarming regression in 2009 from 2007. There are some good players there (Crawford/Pena), I’m not saying the Rays suck or anything, but I think people are a touch too optimistic with the Rays…just my opinion.
Right, the Rays scored 803 runs last season due to obscenely good years from Zobrist and Bartlett. You can’t always count on production like that and right now you can really only pencil in Pena and Longoria in that vein.
FYI – Nate is no longer active in BP…they own PECOTA