For most of the past week ESPN has been running articles selling the Hall of Fame credentials of players like Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven. Along with Tim Raines, Dawson and Blyleven round out a core of HOF ballot veterans whose careers have put them on the cusp of baseball immortality (except for Raines, who should have been elected to the Hall of Fame years ago).
In the spirit of the HOF ballot, I wanted to take a moment to examine the careers of Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. During this World Series run a lot was once again made of whether or not these two should be considered among the game’s best of all time (and some of the other players who’ve inexplicably found their way into Cooperstown).
To make this assessment I’ll rely on two tools Baseball Reference provides. The main one is the list of comparable players they have. If Andy and Jorge are considered similar to enough players in the Hall of Fame, or players who will probably one day be in the Hall of Fame, then it stands to reason that they too have a strong case for the Hall. The second tool is a Bill James statistic, Hall of Fame Monitor. The monitor awards points to players for career milestones, such as an All-Star appearance or hitting .300 in a season. 100 points or more is considered the minimum threshold for Cooperstown.
Interestingly, the two players cut in different directions according to these criteria. Pettitte already has a HOF Monitor above 100 (Jorge does not) while Posada compares favorably thus far in his career to players already in Cooperstown.
Jorge seems to have the better case between the two. Hall of Fame Monitor won’t automatically go up each year – only for milestones – but with a score of 98 Jorge should pass 100 next season. In addition, the three players whom he compares most favorably to, in order, are Javy Lopez, Gabby Hartnett and Roy Campanella. Through age 37 he also compares favorably to Carlton Fisk. Lopez is not a HOFer, and its ridiculous to compare Jorge to Campanella since the latter might have been the greatest catcher ever had his career not been tragically shortened, but Hartnett and Fisk do have similar numbers to Jorge and both are in the Hall of Fame.
Playing catcher helps. There are only 13 backstops in Cooperstown. Of them, only Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Cartlon Fisk and Gary Carter have hit more home runs than Jorge has right now. If Jorge has 3 more seasons similar to 2009 in him then he’ll surpass 300 career homers. That, in turn, would make it difficult to keep him out of Cooperstown, all other things being equal. Although it is improbable for a catcher to play to such an advanced age, there is precedent. Carlton Fisk didn’t become an everyday player until he was 24, and then freakishly played until the age of 45.
Andy Pettitte may have the bumpier road. He compares most favorably to Kevin Brown, Bob Welch, and Dwight Gooden. None of them is a HOFer. Andy seems to fall into the category of the Hall of Very Good. That Bill James’ statistic currently projects him as a Hall of Famer seems to reflect his regular and postseason record. The knock against him is that he’s never been particularly dominant.
Jack Morris has a similar record, ERA, and postseason resume to Pettitte’s. He’s not in the Hall, and he didn’t make the list of players ESPN argued for this past week. Like Pettitte he was an excellent pitcher, who put up many strong seasons (both were in the top five in Cy Young balloting at least four times), but falls short because without 300 wins pitchers need to be visibly dominant (think Pedro Martinez or Bob Gibson) to be elected.
Andy and Jorge aren’t done playing. They have at least the 2010 season to strengthen their candidacies (assuming the PED thing blows over for Pettitte). I don’t believe either will be elected the first few times on the ballot, but both will have strong resumes if they can stay healthy and productive for 3 more seasons. Of the two, I believe that Jorge will eventually make it in, while Pettitte will not. Jorge seems to have the drive to stick around for a while longer, and will likely wind up with 300 home runs. Pettitte, on the other hand, has toyed with retirement for years, and will not win 300 games. The Yankees, however, as far as I’m concerned, should retire both their numbers.
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5 Responses to HOF bubble: How do Posada and Pettitte stack up?
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TIQ IQ
Whenever someone talks about whether Pettitte or Posada (or Bernie Williams, for that matter) SHOULD make the Hall of Fame, I think about whether they WILL. Torre, Jeter, and Rivera are certain HOFers, and are all (as far as I know) highly respected by the voters. Once those three get elected, I'd expect them to lobby hard for the borderline guys. (Clemens and A-Rod are almost certain HOFers, too, assuming the steroid/PED thing doesn't prove fatal to their chances, but I wonder if they are, or will be, respected enough to sway voters.)
I've never heard of players lobbying for other guys to make the Hall.
Pettitte I don't think will make it (for the same reasons that I think Morris shouldn't make it), but Posada is an interesting case. In a vacuum, he doesn't have the numbers, but the fact that he is a catcher is a major mitigating factor for that. I think he was objectively better than Gary Carter and you can make the case for him over Carlton Fisk as well. If he retired today, I don't think he would make it, but he would certainly stick on the ballot for a few years
I believe that Posada makes it in eventually (barring a scandal of some sort). Recently ESPN rated him the best catcher of the decade that just ended. Players such as Piazza and Mauer may overshadow him, but if he gets to 300 home runs I struggle to see him being excluded.
Pettitte I believe comes close, but won't make it because he always played on good teams, which inflated his record.
I believe, also, that Bernie Williams may have a stronger case than we realize. If Edgar Martinez gets in, Bernie may as well. There career numbers are similar. Edgar may have been the better all-around hitter, but traditionally HOF voters have been swayed by core members of championship teams. The Brooklyn Dodgers are an excellent example. I once read an analysis saying that some of the weakest HOFers came from those 1940s and 1950s teams in my home borough.
On a final note, I agree with Bill James who recently said this whole PED thing will blow over. Its not just that every athlete does something (Rashard Lewis of the Magic tested positive over the summer), but also that people take steroids. You can order HGH in most airplane catalogues. The double standard won't last.
Traditionally, voters have been swayed by core members of championship teams, but I think we are moving away from that and unlikely to go back. There are a ton of undeserving players in the Hall of Fame from that era that no one makes a stink about because nobody has ever heard of them.
Edgar Martinez–career 147 OPS+ (over 150 8 times with a high of 185), OPSed 1.000+ five times (1.100 once and another year of .993), played 150 games four times, two batting titles, three OBP titles, one RBI title, two top-6 MVP finishes
Bernie–career 125 OPS+ (peaked at 160 in 1998 but never broke 150 in any other season), never OPSed 1.000 (though he did have a .997 in 128 games in 1998), played 150 games just twice, one batting title, never finished above 7th in the voting
he did play center field while Martinez mostly DHed, but Martinez was the vastly superior hitter
There's no doubt that Martinez was the more dominant hitter. I completely agree. But, there career totals are similar. Those kinds of stats have traditionally swayed HOF voters.
I think it comes down to whether or not the voters continue to put a high emphasis on being a core member of a dynasty. My gut says that they will for these Yankees, eventually, because we may not see another dynasty like that for sometime.