Now that the CHONE projections have been released and the Yankees and Red Sox have, for the most part, finalized their rosters, people have begun to analyze which club projects to be better in 2010. Most fo the studies I have seen come to the same conclusion.
Yankeeist broke it down by position, and concluded with this:
That said, in aggregate, each method draws the same conclusion: The Yankees core looks stronger than the Red Sox core. Baseball Prospectus puts the final tally at 59.5 to 49.8, while Fangraphs comes to 61.4 to 55.1. The actual 8 win difference between the two 2009 teams is right between these two estimates, adding credibility to the final tallies.
RLYW, using their own CAIRO system, came to a similar conclusion with a narrower margin:
I haven’t really finalized their pitching depth chart so I’m not going to post it yet, but with the one I have worked up they look like a .598 Pythagenpat team right now, which is .025 points worse than the Yankees were when I ran their numbers. That’s the difference between a 97 win team and 101 win team in a neutral league, though we probably want to knock off a couple of wins frome each team to account for being in the AL East.
Rob Neyer sums up the debate rather well:
I think the Yankees are better, but the difference is within the margin of error (or very close), so luck will play a big part in who wins the East.
Who do you believe is the better club? I’ll get things started by doing an brief ranking of the key players on each club, considering both offense and defense (I will have a significantly more in depth comparison once the rosters are actually finalized, at some point in March):
C: Posada v. Martinez: Red Sox- Very similar players, but Martinez was a little better in ’09 and is younger.
1B: Teixeira v. Youkilis: Yankees- Again, very similar, but Tex was slightly better in ’09 and has a better track record.
2B: Cano v. Pedroia: Push- if you trust UZR, you take Pedey. If not, you probably take Cano.
SS: Jeter v. Scutaro: Yankees- Scutaro is a nice player, but he is not Jeter and could see regression.
3B: Rodriguez v. Beltre: Yankees- Again, nice player, but not in A-Rod’s league.
CF: Granderson v. Cameron: Push- If you see Grandy bouncing back, you take him. If not, Cameron’s the better bet.
RF: Swisher v. Drew: Red Sox- Drew is likely to be better defensively and about as good with the bat.
LF: Gardner v. Ellsbury: Red Sox- Gardner actually out-WAR’ed him last year, but I am not a big believer in Brett.
DH: Johnson v. Ortiz: Push- Ortiz projects poorly, while Johnson projects to do well in 110 games. Hard to read.
SP1: Sabathia v. Lester: Yankees
SP2: Burnett v. Beckett: Red Sox
SP3: Vazquez v. Lackey: Red Sox
SP4: Pettitte v. Matsuzaka: Yankees
SP5: Joba/Hughes v. Buchholz: Push
CL: Rivera v. Papelbon: Yankees
You can order the starters however you like, but I think that any permutation would result in the same thing: The Yankees winning the matchups at 1 and 4, and losing the middle 2. There are those (hi, MJ) who will disagree with a push at #5, but I am still pretty high on Chamberlain and expect him to have a better year than Clay (please remind me of this at the end of the season, so I can right a column either gloating or conceding). With Papelbon’s peripherals trending in the wrong direction and Mariano showing no signs of aging, I would take Mo for 2010.
Putting it all together, I think the pitching staffs are fairly equal, while the Yankees offense is a bit better largely due to their “margin of victory” on the left side of the infield. I would say that there is about a 2-3 win gap between the clubs at the moment, with the final composition of the bullpens and benches likely to have an impact upon that number.
Thoughts?
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21 Responses to Discussion: Who Projects Better, Yankees Or Red Sox?
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TIQ IQ
It’s a lot closer then I thought. I think the key factor will be injuries and/or regression due to age. Dice-K, Beckett, Lackey, Drew, Ortiz, Cameron, Wakefield, Varitek (although he is not going to be counted on much I don’t think) and Scuturo versus Burnett, Posada, Jeter, ARod and Pettitte all either have had major injuries in the past two years or are at/over the age where players begin a steady decline. Lackey has had two successive seasons with the same elbow injury. Something tells me he winds up with Tommy John surgery (at which case, his contract becomes a 6 year deal and he pitches for the minimum salary the final year of the deal… pretty sweet). The Yankees had a pretty good run last year of health (outside of ARod) and of players playing well at an older age (Jeter, Posada, Matsui, Damon, etc). I actually think Granderson will be the key; if he has a bad season, the Yankees will miss the power that Damon/Matsui brought to the team. If he plays well, the Yankees should come out on top.
Why is John Lackey rated higher than Javier Vasquez? How many games did Lackey win last year? And how do you rate 38 year old Mike Cameron and Curtis Granderson as a push? Cameron is nothing more than a .250 hitter for his career. At least at his age Granderson has an upside. Why is J.D. Drew rated ahead of Nick Swisher? Drew is one of the most over-rated players in baseball. Your not a big fan of Brett Gardner, yet his stats are better than Ellsbury and his defense is far superior. (by the way, Gardner will be in Centerfielder and Granderson the leftfielder) In which case I’ll take Gardner over Cameron and Grandreson over Ellsbury.
Cameron is a better player than Gardner in pretty much every way and had a better 2009 than Granderson, Lackey has had a more consistent career than Vazquez, and Drew is as good a hitter than Swisher and better defensively. Those last 2 are close, but Im pretty sure most GM’s would agree with me on them.
Both teams are counting on some older players and Jay pointed out some of the weak spots.
The one thing I would remind everyone of is, Tampa Bay, they improved themselves to some degree in this off season. How much of a player will they be in the mix?
Their bullpen will be much better then last year, and we should all expect Upton to be much, MUCH better then last year.
LOL! I saw the ranking and immediately started preparing my rebuttal. Two lines later, you disarmed me with humor.
Yep, I disagree. :-)
I agree the Yankees are just a bit better than the Sox on paper, but I don’t necessarily think looking at head-to-head matchups is very telling. It’s the percentage or incremental value a player has over the opposing team’s player at the same position. For instance, while Martinez, Drew, and for shits and giggles, Ellsbury profile as better than their counterparts, the degree in which they’re better is so small, whereas Jeter, A-Rod are moderate-to-huge degrees better than the opposition. Just saying “advantage,” “disadvantage” makes this appear simpler than it really is. Looking at the pitching matchups, yeah, the Sox have (again, on paper) an advantage, though CC is better than Lester and Vasquez could unquestionably be better than Lackey. Who knows about the last two spots?
There are a tremendous amount of unknown variables that open throughout the season—2010 appears to have luck, health as the difference. Both teams are very close in terms of talent, depth, flexibility, so those X factors should determine the pecking order.
Just my $.002
I agree with you, which is why I referenced ”margin of victory” on the left side of the infield- the Yankees have a better hitting team because their advantages are greater than those of the Red Sox.
Oh, I know. I should have been more clear that I was just emphasizing that point. Apologies.
It’s cool.
I don’t think it’s nearly that close. The two best bats on either team are A-Rod and Teix. Martinez is a nice bat but if he catches 100 games I’d be surprised. Jeter to even walk-year Scutaro is a huge drop-off, and Granderson vs an aging Cameron is anything but a push. A healthy Nancy Drew over Nick Swisher, sure, but where do we set the over-under on games played? 130? I’ll take the under. Robbie against Pedroia is kinda a push, but they’re very different players who do different things. Pedroia’s power looks to be somewhere in the 15 HR range, while Cano is a legit power hitter who should slug north of .500 annually; conversely Pedroia is fast while Cano is lead-footed. Top to bottom the Yanks’ lineup is much better. Now the Sox rotation has a better top 3, but on the whole it’s close to even, and the BP is at worst a push. The gap between the Yanks and the Sox is probably wider than that between the Sox and the Rays.
I think Beckett is still their ace, and in a healthy season he’s as good as CC. So I would say “Push” on the #1 starter, which tilts the balance in favor of the Red Sox. On paper, at least.
One wild card is Vasquez, if he performs as he did in 07 and 09, the Yanks have a slight edge. If he’s ‘just a #4′ as so many say, I give it to the Sox.
Another wild card is health, especially for the Sox staff. 3 of the 5 have serious injury concerns where the Yanks do not have any major issues. That’s another way the Yanks can leap ahead.
Steve CC is a horse and over the last 3 seasons has Beckett beat in every statistic known to man .
Beckett seems to break down quite often over his career.You would probably be surprised as I was to how close he and AJ BURNETT are over the course of their careers statistcaly .That said I would take Becket over AJ.A push with CC no way.
CC is better than either Lester or Beckett. Over the last 3 seasons, CC has an ERA+ of 141 and a WHIP of 1.13. Beckett has had one single season with an ERA+ that good, and never has had a WHIP like that. His ERA= for the last 3 years is 126. Good, but not as good as CC.
Beckett just isn’t an ace. Good #2. Lester is quite easily their best pitcher, and while definitely an ace, he’s not CC.
When comparing teams position players I seperate offense and defense.Example for offense I would compare JETER with Ellsbury and on defense Jeter with Scutaro.In my humble opinion I don’t think it does much good to compare positon player to position player .I also like to look at 3 year splits along with last years stats.I think the Yankees offense is much better 1 thru 9.On defense I give a slight edge to the sox.
Moshe, given that I’m not a real fan of head-to-head matchups by position, I have to say yours is as effective and balanced as I’ve seen. I can’t help feeling that the injury bug is going to hit both teams this year (though not enough in either case to crack the door open for the Rays), which is where these comparisons become impossible as you inferred. I see a significant bullpen advantage for the Yanks once that becomes part of the conversation.
Rating Cameron vs. Granderson a push is quite a stretch. A 37-year-old .250 hitter is on par with a 28-year-old who hit 30 homeruns last year playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park?
Cameron was better last year by most measures. Unless you assume a bounceback (I think there will be one, but it is not certain), a push is fair.
I agree with everything but the decision of deciding on Lackey over Vazquez. Just checking their WARs over the last 4 years, you can see that Vazquez has outperformed him by a sizeable margin. Some of it can be attributed to Vazquez’s ability to stay healthy and Lackey’s inability to match it, but there’s definitely value in basically projecting Vazquez as a 4-win, 200 inning horse. Lackey on the other hand, has the ability to match Vazquez, but he can also wind up only throwing 150-180 innings and limiting his value
This is a very fair point, and one that made me pause. I think Lackey is the better pitcher (especially bc WAR is based on FIP, which overstates Vazquez), but Javy’s incredible durability may close that gap.