1999 as a predictor for 2010?

Speaking only for myself as a Yankee fan, since the World Series celebrations have died down, I’ve forgotten just how dominant the 2009 team was, amid all the off season moves the Yankees have made. During the second half of the regular season they were almost as dominant as the 1998 squad. From July onward the Bombers went 59-27, a torrid .686 win percentage that translates to 111 wins over the course of a full season.

I emphasize this because I see a lot of similarities between the 2009 and 1998 squads. Not only were they the two most dominant teams of my lifetime, but they both became the favorites to repeat as champions the moment the season ended. We all know how 1999 turned out, and I want to use that as (yet another) lens for making predictions about 2010. (Is anyone else out there counting the minutes until pitchers and catchers report? Yeah, me too.)

In 2010, the Yankees will return all of their starting pitchers, and six of their 9 position players. With the addition of a legitimate (and very good) 4th starter, all other things being equal, the pitching projects to be improved from 2009. The offense is a bit less clear of a picture. Curtis Granderson should be better than Johnny Damon, but only if he bounces back from a relatively weak 2009. Nick Johnson projects to get on base more than Hideki Matsui did, but that comes will a tangible drop in power (and about the same injury risk). Brett Gardner over a full season could be good, but is really an unknown.

What is known is that the Yankees got considerable production from two of the 3 players they’ve lost. They appear to have replaced that production (and I’ll go so far as to say improved upon it, as the likelihood of Matsui and Damon repeating their 2009 efforts are slim) but next year’s squad won’t hit as many home runs as the 2009 guys. In order for Johnson and Gardner to be productive they’ll need to get on base, and have others in the lineup knock them in. That’s a big change from an ’09 team that featured a lineup full of double-digit home run guys.

The 1998 team didn’t hit as many home runs as the 2009 squad, but featured just as balanced a lineup. Left fielder Chad Curtis (who has set a record in the past two months for being the most linked-to replacement-level player in Yankee history) was the weakest spot, and even he put 10 in the seats. In 1999, the Yankees returned seven of their 9 position players, platooning Ricky Ledee with Curtis and Shane Spencer in left and replacing Darryl Strawberry with Chili Davis at DH. The result was a starting nine that hit fewer home runs than the previous season’s team while remaining an offensive force. (As an aside, if the combined home run totals for Spencer, Ledee and Curtis are used for the left field spot, since all three got more than 200 plate appearances, then the starting nine home run totals are actually the same, but that is getting REALLY technical.)

The 1998 pitching staff was legendarily dominant. All five starters posted ERA+’s above 100 (even Hideki Irabu) and Ramiro Mendoza was waiting to take the ball if anyone got hurt. In 1999 the team swapped David Wells for Roger Clemens — mostly because Boomer was a headache — and saw the staff come down to earth a bit, while remaining strong overall.

I like the comparison between 2010 and 1999. Although the team made one more change to the lineup in 2010 than it did in 1999, the 1999 team sets a healthy precedent for a champion making certain changes and still coming out on top. (And, feel free to say you read it here first, but I firmly believe the offense next season will be at least as good as last year’s.)

What really gets me excited is the pitching. The team’s pitching lost something from 1998 to 1999, mostly because more of their starters regressed to the league mean performance that season. The 2010 staff, on the other hand, has more weapons than the 2009 staff, and for that reason alone projects to be better. In total, the team has made many changes this offseason, but it has done so before and come out on top. And perhaps most importantly, it also hasn’t had this strong of a rotation in years.