Over the last few days, you have read some well researched and cogently argued articles suggesting that Brett Gardner should start for the Yankees this season, and may actually be more valuable than a one dimensional player such as Jason Bay. I would like to spend a few minutes challenging that assertion. Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues has already touched upon some of the issues I would like to discuss, and I recommend his article highly.
The Sample Is Too Small
I would like to start by touching upon the defensive numbers. While Gardner grades out well in practically every defensive metric available, he has spent a total of 934.2 innings manning a major league outfield, spread over 138 games and 95 starts. Most defensive metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt until a sample as large as 3 seasons has been built up. Making comparative judgments about Gardner’s defense at this point is akin to reaching a conclusion about a player’s offense at the end of May. I think that it is fair to say at this point that Gardner’s defense is above average, but projecting him to be one of the best at his position in all of baseball is a misuse of metrics that are simply not equipped to support that sort of conclusion.
In regard to offense, again, the sample is 425 plate appearances, in which Gardner put up a .270/.345/.379 line. It is important to note that Gardner only started 63 games, and only faced lefties in 22% of his at-bats (27% of pitchers are lefthanders). To me, this suggests that Gardner had his spots picked for him, allowing his weaknesses to be minimized. I am not saying that he cannot improve upon his 2009 line. But I do think that it is hard to assume a natural progression from 2009 to 2010 should he be placed into an everyday role.
The Scouting Report
I know that I am typically a “numbers guy,” so I feel a bit uncomfortable reporting upon what I see, because as we all know, sometimes your eyes show you what you want to see. However, I think that any Yankee who watched the club daily will likely agree with most of the assertions I am about to make.
1) Gardner hits the ball in the air too often for a “speed guy.” His career GB/FB ratio is 1.45, which seems fairly high but in actuality needs to be a lot higher for a slap hitter with little power. A player who pops up 13% of his fly balls in the infield and beats out 16% of his groundballs in the infield needs to be hitting the ball on the ground a lot more (I just want to note that the small sample size issue remains relevant here as well. I am using the numbers to support my scouting report, but they do need to be taken with a grain of salt).
2) Gardner does not like to swing the bat. I think some of his walk rate is artificial because he often just keeps the bat on his shoulders. If the pitcher throws strikes, Gardner is almost certain to be in a tough count, and as pitchers learn this, he will walk less frequently. I do believe the numbers support this, as Gardner swings at a scant 35.4 % of pitches. As a point of reference, only 4 qualifying hitters swung less frequently than Gardner in 2009, and those hitters swung at pitches outside the zone less frequently than Gardner. Gardner also saw the most first pitch strikes of anyone in the top 10. Are these numbers definitive? Certainly not. But they do hint towards my suggestion: Gardner has more plate patience than he has discipline. As a fairly weak hitter who cannot make pitchers pay when they groove one over, Gardner may begin to see a ton of strikes early in the count. If that means he will trade some walks for hits, that would be fine. But if some of those walks begin turning into outs, Brett will lose some value.
3) Gardner does not make great reads in the outfield. He is incredibly fast and gets to some balls quicker than any player in baseball. His speed coming in also helps his arm play up. But he often finds himself taking meandering routes to balls, and does not seem very instinctual out there. I think his speed means that he will never be anything less than an above average outfielder, but his instincts may prevent him from becoming elite defensively.
Well, that is my case. I do not dislike Gardner and think he could be a starter for a lesser club. I am just not quite certain that he should be anything more than a 4th outfielder for the Yankees. At some point over the next few days, I’ll discuss Melky Cabrera and whether he could be sufficient in left field this season.
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10 Responses to Why I'm Not So Sure About Gardner
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TIQ IQ
While I agree that offensively Gardner may still be a big question mark I don’t think you have to wait for the defensive metrics to be more defined. Reason I feel this way is there were so many times last season where he ran down balls that you knew Melky, or most center fielders couldn’t get to. Maybe some routes were bad but I don’t recall that many. From what I saw he has the ability to save a lot of runs. Defensive metrics in my opinion also are a poor substitute for what you can witness by watching the player day in and out.
With that said, I wouldn’t say his defense alone can justify giving him a full time role. We have to see him a little bit more before I would be comfortable saying he is good enough. Plus I like the trade for Granderson with the idea that he was one of the elite players at a difficult position.
I’ve always had problems with the “MLB pitchers won’t throw the guy strikes” argument.
Do you think that minor league pitchers are stupid? They have scouting reports, video, and really good coaching too. They also have more of these things as pitchers climb the minor league ladder. However, Gardner did better as he climbed the latter, and better as he saw pitchers in the league more often.
Nick Swisher walks a lot too, because he keeps the bat on his shoulders. So did Luis Castillo, who is a better comp for Gardner. You can’t walk 100 times a year without keeping pitchers accountable with real power, but you can walk 60 times a year, which is all Gardner needs to do.
A 1.45 GO/AO ratio is nothing to sneeze at. Not everyone can be Derek Jeter and put up 3.5 to 1 ratios.
Yeah, Bernie Williams didn’t make great reads either. He was also really good for awhile. Gardner is a lot faster, and can make up for poor reads with blinding speed. He wouldn’t be the first in that position.
And really, this debate is Melky vs. Gardner. Why aren’t people writing 500 words on how terrible Melky’s scouting report is? Am I the only person who remembers all the Melky swing analysis?
You make a number of good points, but I do want to note that I didn’t say Gardner could not succeed, nor that he is worse than Melky. I’m not sure either is the answer.
Regarding the ”MLB pitchers won’t throw strikes,” I don’t think it is ridiculous to suggest that his plate discipline won’t hold up in the majors. Yes, minor league pitchers have scouting reports, but they are on the whole less skilled than MLB pitchers, and a re more prone to missing the strikezone. I’d say that a player of Gardner’s profile, with little power, is the least likely sort of player to have his plate discipline skills transfer.
Regarsing the GO ratio, I’m not asking that he be Jeter, or even Ichiro (2.12). But for that sort of hitter, 1.45 seems low. Melky, for example, hits more groundballs. If speed is your main offensive asset, you should be using it more. As for Melky, I’ll get to him later in the week.
EJ,
I am not sure either gardner or melky is the answer. Both are weak. Melky does not have the pop to be a left fielder but is probably defensively adequate there. The bottom line is that they are both cheap.
All three of the things you point out in your scouting report could be the result of being a fisrt year player who is trying his best to become a full time player, particularly the fact that he does not like to swing the bat. It is a learning process to figure out when to swing, and when to hold up.
His reads in the field will also improve with time and maturity. If he was as good as he was last year, with all the problems you listed, I think he has potential to become a lot better if he was given the position full time.
On Gardner facing lefty pitchers, you write: “To me, this suggests that Gardner had his spots picked for him, allowing his weaknesses to be minimized.”
Baseball-Reference supports your claim:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/b-pvb.cgi?n1=gardnbr01#choice=&throws=L&year_game=2009&opp_id=&orderby=PA&orderbyb=Name&minPA2=0&minPA=0&orderbydir=DESC&orderbydirb=ASC&n1=gardnbr01&as=batter
Besides the 6 ABs against Lee, there are not really any great southpaws on the list. Melky’s opposing lefties looks harder:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/b-pvb.cgi?n1=cabreme01#choice=&throws=L&year_game=2009&opp_id=&orderby=PA&orderbyb=Name&minPA2=0&minPA=0&orderbydir=DESC&orderbydirb=ASC&n1=cabreme01&as=batter
I guess this disputes the claim, that Gardner was not that much worse against lefties then Melky was.
I really think that Gardner should be given every chance to win the CF spot this spring. He is an excellent OF’er, and will get better as he becomes more familiar with the stadiums. “If” he can hit .275 & steal 35+ bases he’s exactly what this lineup needs. As A-Rod said after one game…He’s a pain in the ass for the other team once he gets on base.
I certainly don’t know the type of player Brett will develop into, but I was impressed by his first year in the majors. Like all young players he’ll need time, but he has the tools to give the Yankees a special weapon on offense while playing a great CF.
Glad to see some others are for giving Brett a chance to make it, or not. So far, he hasn’t really had the chance to show his overall abilities. He was going very well until he was injured, I think he came back to soon.
Gardner is the NEXT YANKEE GOD.
I think there is something special about this little redneck. I believe he’s got a bit of the Pete Rose in him. Sort of a Pete Rose light.
And I mean that he can still harness all that speed and quickster aggression…and become a true superstar.
He can change the game the way Jackie Robinson once did. The ironic thing: Who would have thought a White boy from down on the farm would turn out as fast as blazes?
[...] start throwing more strikes to a player who is prone to let them pass by. However, something that I wrote prior to last season led me to believe that my intuition may be mistaken: Gardner does not like to [...]