[image title="73394623OG004_Oakland_Athle" size="full" id="12948" align="center" ]There are a lot of high-risk, high-reward free agents on the market today. The names by now are familiar to everyone: Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer and Kelvim Escobar. The Yankees should sign at least one, and maybe two, of these pitchers. For the cost, they are great bets.
A player of the caliber of John Lackey (or A.J. Burnett) will cost at bare minimum 16 million dollars on the open free agent market. A trade for someone like Roy Halladay would at best cost two top prospects and one of our young MLB pitchers. These are steep costs. The money is easy to figure out, but what would the Halladay package be worth? According to Fangraphs, Phil Hughes alone was worth 10 million dollars alone last year, and Halladay’s salary is almost 13 million dollars.
That’s a lot of expense. The pitchers listed above, on the other hand, are probably looking for salaries in the 2-8 million dollar range. The best of the bunch is Rich Harden, who also has the highest price tag, and I am going to argue that the Yankees sh0uld sign him. However, the same argument stands for the other players, including Chien-Ming Wang.
Rich Harden has put up the following stat line since returning from persistent injury in 2008:
| Year | Age | Tm | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 26 | TOT | 2.07 | 25 | 148.0 | 61 | 181 | 211 | 1.061 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 11.0 | 2.97 |
| 2009 | 27 | CHC | 4.09 | 26 | 141.0 | 67 | 171 | 110 | 1.340 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 10.9 | 2.55 |
While his control suffered a bit in 2009, his K/9 rate didn’t budge. In terms of effectiveness, Harden is probably somewhere in the middle of his 2008 and 2009 seasons. However, those seasons also demonstrated that we probably cannot count on Rich Harden to play more than 140 or so innings over the course of a season. The silent fact about Harden is that although it seems as if he’s been around forever, the man will be entering his age-28 season, and therefore is still in his physical prime.
Let’s assume that Harden has more 2009 in him than 2008, and pitches a 130 ERA+. That would put his ERA somewhere around 3.40, which I think is reasonable. The Yankees would have to make up the 60-70 innings that Harden misses versus an option like John Lackey by playing a replacement pitcher, likely Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin, or Zach McAllister. Let’s assume that these talented young players are not all they are cracked up to be and put up a mildly successful ERA+ of 95 when filling Harden’s playing time. Doing some basic math, we can then calculate what value our Frankenstein hybrid pitcher gives us. Let’s compare this to two separate options: John Lackey pitching 200 innings with an ERA+ of 120, and Roy Halladay replicating his 2009 performance with 240 innings and an ERA+ of 150.
John Lackey: Richard Harden’s 130 ERA+ in 140 innings + Replacement’s 60 innings of 95 ERA+ [(130 * 140/200) + (95 * 60/200)] = 119.5 ERA+
Roy Halladay: Rich Harden’s 130 ERA+ in 140 innings + Replacement’s 100 innings of 95 ERA+ [(130 * 140 /240) + (95 * 100/240)] = 115 ERA+
So, let’s compare the two options. Rich Harden and the Yankees replacement pitchers essentially equaled John Lackey’s expected production, assuming Lackey even reaches 200 innings for approximately 7 million dollars less money and no long term commitment. And while the group doesn’t measure up to Roy Halladay, the Yankees 115 ERA+ that they would get in the same number of innings for 4 million dollars less does not include the value of keeping at least three top young players long term.
Rich Harden, and the others, have a lot of risks attached to them. And they don’t provide the type of game-changing, complete game dominance that Roy Halladay brings to the table. But the Yankees already have C.C. Sabathia to help them do that, and need a strong supporting cast behind him. I think that Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson, and Joba Chamberlain are all going to be productive major league players. By betting broadly, and keeping our long-term risks hedged, we won’t be decimated by Roy Halladay being paid 20 million dollars at the age of 39, or stepping on 3rd base wrong while running the bases in June, or just not pitching well for a season.
I’d also like to point out that I tilted the assumptions toward Lackey and Halladay when making ERA+ and innings assumptions. Halladay’s career ERA+ is 133. Lackey hasn’t pitched 200 innings in the past 2 seasons. And in addition to that replacement-level group of starting pitchers, the Yankees would fill many of those innings with leveraged, matched up bullpen innings from a very good group of relief pitchers.
Part of the reason that the Yankees are not going out and getting Matt Holliday (and why Johnny Damon played with the Yankees for 4 years instead of Carlos Beltran) is that they committed their roster and ability to win to a very small number of players. A broader group, thanks to a cheap set of young, effective players, is much more effective.
Get Harden. Keep your depth. Spend the money elsewhere.
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22 Responses to The Case For Rich Harden (Or Ben Sheets, Or Erik Bedard, Or Chien-Ming Wang)
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TIQ IQ
Couldn’t agree more. How would you feel if you had to play a 7-game series when the other team is running out CC/AJ/Harden and the best of Joba and Hughes as they enter their primes? (with the other one waiting in the bullpen to come in and throw that ball by you). Also, not trading for Doc allows them to make a splash next offseason. I mean you could be looking at a 2011 team of
CC
AJ
Harden/Sheets/ect (assuming it’s like a 2 year deal with an option)
Hughes
Joba
with a lineup of
Jeter SS
Mauer C/DH
A-Rod 3B
Tex 1B
Montero/Posada DH/C
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
AJax CF
Melky LF
I put Melky in LF because it was easy but I could probably go out and play LF with that lineup. Let’s assume Jeter comes back at 15 million a year and Rivera comes back at 12 million a year. Say that Harden/Sheets/ect costs something like 5 million. Now Mauer in this economy might get 25 million a year so let’s try that. Using some round numbers and the numbers available off of COTS, we’re looking at a payroll of about 199 million in 2011 with 23 million coming off the books the next season (while not leaving any holes to fille) in Posada/Marte/Igawa and a 2 million reduction in A-Rod’s contract.
This is what the Yankee brass is looking at. Even if Mauer doesn’t want to sign with us (I actually want him to stay with the Twins), you sign somebody like Werth to play RF and maybe start looking at a Cliff Lee or Brandon Webb or waiting a year to get Josh Johnson or Felix Hernandez. In fact, that could be better as the Yankees could have quite the catching stash if Romine and Montero continue to tear up the minors
I’m all for bringing in one or two of these guys, for the right price, as a depth move. However, that doesn’t negate the need to bring back Pettitte or acquire someone else as a reliable third starter. The 2009 Red Sox made some nice high risk/high reward signings in Penny and Smoltz, but got burned when they had to rely too heavily upon them and they weren’t up to it.
The Yanks may also be at a disadvantage with these types of pitchers in that 1). they may not be able to guarantee them a spot in the rotation or even on the roster, and 2). If they payroll talk is to be believed that won’t be able to commit any sort of meaningful money to them until they get the LF/DH and #3 starter situations sorted out.
Agreed, but we don’t know for sure Pettite is going to decide to come back. I for one think he will. I really wouldn’t mind signing Pettite plus one of Harden/Sheets/Wang/Escobar and holding open competition for the 5th starter spot between Joba, Hughes, IPK, Nova, McAllister, ect as they all have options. Then, just send the losers to AAA until the inevitable call-up. Ideally, they could send Joba down to AAA and go with a rotation of CC/AJ/Sheets/Pettite/Hughes and let Joba get some of his command back on his curve/change back in AAA.
I probably should have said: All of these assumptions are based on presuming that Pettitte is back.
I agree, although I would target Sheets. the issue with Harden is that many of the innings that he doesn’t eat come in games where he lasts 5-6 innings (he’s averaged under 6 the last two years, I believe). Those innings are not going to Hughes or Chamberlain, they are going to middle relievers. Sheets, when healthy, gives you more length.
Agreed, but then again, Harden actually pitched last season. Of course, Sheets could come back stronger from surgery like a lot of guys do and come back throwing 95+
True. Thing is, Harden’s never been healthy, while Sheets has had some long seasons.
Honestly, I believe that the two are interchangeable. The numbers were just easier to demonstrate for Harden.
Harden is younger and has the potential to be dominate but his injury history and the possibility that he currently has shoulder problems makes him a less attractive than Sheets.
I almost wonder if Harden should take off a year to get healthy and get him self in real good shape to pitch next year, maybe take care of any surgeries he may need.
in my mind the better move that nyy could/would make would be to sign ben sheets for a 1year deal with 2 option years. why? if he does aweful or gets re-injured in year 1, eh, no big deal, you took a gamble that didnt work out. however, lets say he does well and is healthy, well then you would have yourself a very nice rotation for the next few seasons with cc/sheets/aj and for arguments sake hughes and joba. i’m hoping andy will suite up 1 more time, but if he retired could you blame him? he won’t top this year, winning all 3 clinching games!!! hell, thats how you wanna go out right? anyways, in my mind rich harden is one of those pitchers that will drive you nuts with his potential and stuff, but he walks too many batters and gets injured way too much! (think of aj when he was younger… but worse!) if bedard wasnt always hurt and scared of the spotlight i’d think he’d be worth the gamble but then again, he doesn’t like the spotlight so i doubt new york would suit him well. i think wang lost it, hate to say it but come on, thats the way it goes sometimes. so if i had a choice i’d say get sheets. he HAD a great arm with control too (hopefully he still does after surgery) was a good #1 with brewers, i think he’d be a really good to great #2 so if next year you throw out cc/sheets/aj/pettite (i hope!) and either joba or hughes. that sounds very good to me and they have a lot of depth down at AAA with mitre/gaudan/z-mac etc. personally though, i’d say give toronto joba/a-jax/romine for doc halladay but i’ll save that debate for another post lol. comments?
Sure, that would be marvelous for the Yankees, but there is no way Sheets would sign a 1 year deal with two option years unless the salary on the options is enormous. Two option years would eliminate any financial advantage for Sheets to prove he is healthy then hit the FA market again all while providing no guarantees.
And that is the risk with these pitchers versus the higher probability guys such as Lackey and Halladay. When October comes arounds, will Harden or Sheets be healthy enough to take th emound for you? If not, you are looking at a thin rotation. Yes, it worked in 2009, but with no margin for error.
I don’t have access to all the fancy stats you guys use but do you think the Yanks could have any interest in either Maholm or Duke? If Andy comes back, seems to me that either of those guys would make a solid 4/5 candidate for the rotation. I’d think that either option would be cheaper in terms of prospects than Halladay, less $$ than Sheets/Harden, and potential for a long term payoff since they’re so young still. Thoughts?
CC
AJ
Andy
Joba
Maholm/Duke
Hughes: in case of injury or a year in AAA
Both have ERA’s around 4.30 for their careers, in the NL Central. If the price was really cheap, I might be interested in Duke due to his solid 2009, but neither excites me. I’d probably prefer to just start Hughes.
Makes sense but what happens when Phil gets to his 120 innings limit this year? Or is he already the 6th arm assuming the yanks sign Andy and another starter and it doesn’t matter?
I’m not sure where 120 innings comes from. Cash has said that he has no real limit, likely because they are using his previous career high as the baseline.
Duke would probably be torn apart by the AL East, I mean you are taking a guy with a 4+ ERA with the Pirates and making him face the Red Sox and and Blue Jays and Orioles (all good offenses) I don’t see it working.
Ok…I didn’t realize Cash said that. So they’re using 2006 when Phil pitched 146 innings in the minors? Since then he has pitched
2007: 110 (72.2 w/ Yanks)
2008: 70 (34 w/ Yanks)
2009: 102 (86 w/ Yanks)
Seems like a bit of a stretch but that’s why Cashman gets paid.
I was counting on some better stats from you guys about Duke or Maholm. If I was just using ERA, I’d say Joba should be non-tendered (4.75). I’m sure you’re right that they’d get roughed up, but I do think they’re both capable of pitching 200 innings w/ an ERA near Joba’s.
Duke would have well over a 5 ERA with the Yankees…. Joba had a 4.75 in the AL East not in the NL East! There is a huge difference, Duke also allows a lot of hits and pitches to contact with fly balls both of which spell doom in this stadium.
I’d prefer Maholm to Duke, but let’s look at Duke’s # for this example. At 26 years old, his 2009 ERA over 213 innings, adjusted from NL Central to AL East, would have been 4.26*. He had a better FB/GB rate, K/BB (2.16 vs. 1.75), and WHIP (1.31 vs. 1.54) than Joba. He gave up a HR every 9.2 innings vs. 7.5 for Joba. He may not be a strikeout pitcher, but he is a pitcher.
Maybe I’m making a better case to trade Joba for Halladay than I am to trade for Duke. I just thought this was interesting.
*This is likely flawed, but for the adjustment, I used the ERA averages for the AL East (4.512) and the NL East (4.298)…4.965% difference.
Duke had a 4.06 there is no way he goes up .20 points more only in his ERA…
Sabathia had a 1.65 ERA with Milwaukee in 130 IP yet he had a 3.37 ERA with the Yankees this year, the jump in competition combined with the smaller park and the additions of the DH make it a huge jump… No way in Hell would Duke have had a 4.26 ERA this year!
He gives up fly balls a lot, outs on fly balls in Pittsburgh would be HRs in Yankee stadium. The difference also is the fact Joba did have strikeout stuff and that is his first year starting. You can’t compare him to Duke and you can’t compare Duke’s numbers in the NL East to the AL East.
No to both pitchers and no to trading for Halladay!
We could sign Sheets and he would be a much better starter in the AL than Duke would be even with Sheets not having pitched last year.
I’ve always liked Sheets. I’ve drafted him on every fantasy team I’ve ever had. But he hasn’t pitched in year and his career ERA is 3.73, so w/ your math it will be above 4.5 in the AL East. He gives up a ton of flyballs and he is still a 2-pitch pitcher. If anyone’s numbers were going to get worse coming to the AL East, I’d guess it would be the starter w/ only 2 pitches who sat out the last season.
I’m not saying Duke has great stuff or is even on the same planet as Sheets talent wise. What I’m saying is the Yanks still lack pitching depth and picking up a Sheets, Harden, or Wang may not fix that.
IF a guy similar to Duke is available for a low cost (Miranda, the Rule 5 pick they got for Bruney, and a filler), why not add him for pitching depth? It would be better than watching Mitre out there. And if they Yanks don’t have a back up for Hughes and/or Joba, Swisher may get a lot more innings this year. AJ, Andy, Sheets, Joba, and Hughes aren’t normally pillars of health.
But then again, Kennedy may be able to fill this roll…just thinking out loud.