All across our own comments, twitter, and the larger blogosphere, I’ve heard a lot of “Oh shit! We’re screwed” panic from Yankee fans yesterday. I think that the Yankees are still favorites over the Boston Red Sox, assuming they sign a decent LF or DH instead of letting Juan Miranda fill the spot. Here are ten reasons why the Yankees are in good shape:
- They won. The Yankees are the defending World Series champions, and did it in dominating fashion. They handedly beat a very strong incumbent team and arguably the two strongest teams in the American League on the way there. They won 103 games in the regular season, which was by far the best in the majors.
- Alex Rodriguez isn’t injured. Its easy to forget that we started 2009 with Cody Ransom as our third baseman, and spent much of the late spring and early summer trying to get Alex Rodriguez back on track. The man who carried our team for so many years looks very healthy, and should return to old form next season. Both on defense and offense. Its not a coincidence that the team didn’t start to win until after Ransom and Pena were replaced by Arod.
- We added Curtis Granderson. Curtis Granderson will be a big upgrade defensively, and will replace the lost productive of Hideki Matsui. While he had a down year last season, it has beenwell documented that he’s due for a bounce back, and has a great Yankee Stadium swing. And if the Yankees get really ambitious and add Damon and a low-cost DH, Granderson is a huge upgrade over Melky.
- The defense will improve. In part because of Granderson, but also because of the departure or banishment to DH of Johnny Damon, the Yankee outfield defense is going to improve significantly. And assuming Alex Rodriguez improves following the recovery from his hip injury, the Yankees could be 1.5-2 wins better on defense alone.
- There is no World Baseball Classic. Hopefully, Damaso Marte doesn’t find another shamexhibition tournament somewhere to play in and injury himself.
- The bullpen is more settled. Brian Bruney was our primary setup guy heading in to the year. Is that a bad idea or what? The Yankees are much more stable right now in the bullpen department right now. David Robertson is a stud, and Damaso Marte showed some great stuff in the playoffs. Behind them, the Yankees are still sorting out a bunch of long men and young guys, but they have a lot of good options to choose from.
- Our top 4 2009 starting pitchers are likely to get better, not worse. A.J. Burnett is due for some improvement, and Joba Chamberlain is due for a lot of improvement. Both have the stuff and track record to be sub-4.00 ERA pitchers, and I think that we’ll see it. Joba is obviously a bit more of a project, but probably suffered from a bit of fatigue toward the end of last year. And the Yankees could also add a Ben Sheets to the mix, who would be a huge improvement over the collection of Chien-Ming Wang (9.44 ERA), Sergio Mitre (6.79 ERA), and Chad Gaudin (3.43 ERA) who made up our 5th starters last year. Really, any health pitcher would be an improvement, including Phil Hughes.
- A better bench. Our bench to start to season should include some combination of Juan Miranda, Brett Gardner, Ramiro Pena, Jamie Hoffmann and Francisco Cervelli. All are solid young players who can contribute in diverse ways, and improvements over Ransom, Molina, and Angel Berroa.
- There’s plenty of depth. Ivan Nova, Zach McAllister, and Jesus Montero will all by at Triple-A, and likely see their MLB debuts this season. Mark Melancon is still around, and has plenty of talent and experience to hit he MLB bullpen. Gaudin, Mitre, and Aceves provide starting options. The Yankees can take a few injuries.
- Cashman isn’t done. Seriously, the Yankees at the very least will sign a DH. They may add Damon to play left and a DH. Cashman famously used to talk about being fine with Bubba Crosby as his center fielder right before signing Johnny Damon. A starting pitcher like Ben Sheets may come along. Kelvim Escobar could receive a minor league deal. There is a very strong chance that the roster is even stronger on opening day than it is now.
And let’s not forget, the Red Sox just lost Jason Bay, their second best hitter for 2009. David Ortiz is fat and old, Lowell was actually a pretty decent hitter last season, and Kevin Youkilis is ugly. We’ve got nothing to panic about.
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25 Responses to Ten Reasons Why The Yankee Fans Shouldn't Panic
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TIQ IQ
We’re in pretty good shape, but Damon may be in serious decline. What’s the latest on Bedard’s health?
I’m pretty sure he’s not regarded as ready to go for the season, but that’s just an inference from the lack of rumors right now.
How do you figure that? He might not be a good bet for anything more than one or two years but I think it’s a little hyperbolic to say that Damon is in “serious decline” a year after he posted a 3.0 WAR.
The Red Sox have improved the depth and quality of their rotation. If we had signed Lackey, we would have had the fourth quality starter for the postseason, which we did not have last year. It would also have given us a solid three starters (CC, AJ, Lackey) for 2011 and beyond, as it is certain Andy will retire next year…We could have easily taken on Lackey’s contract. Yankee fans will lament this when Lackey shuts them down in 2010…
Now we have to hope Hughes and Joba can be the 4th and 5th starters, and not have a repeat of Hughes/Kennedy in 2008…and then of course the bullpen will take a hit….I say we sign Mike Gonzalez as part of the bridge to Mo, if Hughes and Joba become starters…OR we sign Sheets, and have Joba stay in the bullpen..OR sign Duchsherer to a cheaper contract to be a reliever, where he has had success, then have Hughes and Joba as starters. Or have Duchsherer and Hughes as starters, keeping Joba in the pen.
Anyway, Cashman did nothing when all this was happening yesterday. Now he has to scramble as the Red Sox have improved their pitching and defense, while the Yankees’ pitching remains the same as last year.
Whoa, hold on now. Yes, you’re 100% right to say that the Red Sox have improved their ballclub by adding Lackey (and Cameron, and, potentially, Adrian Beltre). But when you say:
that’s not entirely true. The Yanks traded for Granderson and the Red Sox did nothing…until they had a great day yesterday. To say that Cashman has done nothing is to assume that Cashman will do nothing more going forward. Give the man a chance to make his countermove before you assume that the Yanks are done maneuvering.
The Yanks had a bad day yesterday, watching Lackey, Cameron, Halladay and Lee all change hands, no doubt about it. But we don’t know how this story ends yet so it’s too soon to bash Cashman for moves he hasn’t made yet.
My hope is that the Yanks sign Sheets/Duchscherer and another veteran arm and strongly consider adding Matt Holliday to a reasonable contract.
Sounds like Holliday and ‘reasonable’ have permanently parted ways. The Cards are talking about 8 years at 16 per.
I saw that. I found that rather shocking, given how much money it’ll take to keep Pujols in St. Louis after next year.
I hope this doesn’t mean the Yanks go for Plan B and take Jason Bay. That guy just doesn’t impress me at all. It also looks like Johnny Damon gains leverage by the day.
I’d rather have Bay than Damon, but even if we get neither there are still going to be a lot of possibilities for LF/DH before the trading deadline. Who this year’s Nady/Justice/etc guy is remains to be seen (if we don’t get somebody between now and then.)
I’m glad we didn’t give Lackey that contract. He’s a nice pitcher, but signing him may have put the kibosh on getting a solid bat for LF/DH while tying up the payroll for the next several seasons. Time for one or two of the young guns to step up.
Why? They’re roughly worth the same number of wins above replacement and Bay would cost much more.
Other than Bay and Damon, who are the other LF options? I can’t think of any.
melky. sign a dh. melky would be our 9th hitter. don’t need a superstar with the bat. there are a lot of possibilities for dh.
You intimated an external option. Of course Melky is a LF possibility since he’s currently our LF.
As for possibilities for DH, there are obviously many names out there but no one terribly exciting. Someone mentioned Jim Thome or Carlos Delgado. Both names made me throw up in my mouth a little.
Why all the reluctance to add Nick Johnson and Johnny damon and Ben Sheets. All are lower cost high upside moves. Melky is a joke in leftfield in terms of offense and I am not sure about Joba and Phil at 4-5 starters.
Wow there are really Yankee fans that are freaking out after just winning the World Series, resigning Pettitte and trading for Granderson?
Seriously get real, we were never bringing Matsui back. Cashman showed no interest in him all fall. On top of that what’d you expect Boston to do, nothing all winter? Of course they were going to sign players. I thought maybe after winning a WS the woe is me fans from 2004 would disappear, guess not.
lol couldnt agree more dude! they resign pettite which was a great move, obviously. then they get granderson, who IS a different player than damon but think of this to even them out. damon has better contact, like he doesnt strike out that much but his defense is awful! granderson is well known for striking out a lot, but his defense is much better. both have very similiar power, granderson has a ‘lil bit more and damon gets a better average. overall though, i’d take granderson since he really didnt cost them too much other than a-jax, he’s younger, and more affordable. the only move(s) i think would make a lot of sense right now would be to either:
-sign mike gonzalez for the 8th
-resign damon for 1 year and a mutual option (he wont take that)
-get either sheets/ducherer or even a guy like marquis (might want to much $)i’d personally prefer to get sheets
-here’s an option we’re ALL going to like that im just going to say for shits and giggles…. sign nick johnson (YIKES!!!) WHEN he gets injured lol bring up montero!!! next true great hitter, GUARANTEED!!!
comments?
I just dont like giving up a first round pick for a reliever, so I’d pass on Gonzalez. Especially sinc he’ll want closers money.
- Damon at 1 year would be great, problem is getting him to agree to that. Time will tell.
- Sheets over Justin D for me, but it depends on the contract. No interest at all in Marquis.
- Johnson is a great idea thats been floated around a lot of yankee blogs. He’s brittle but would be the perfect 2 hitter with his high OBP. Of course he probably cant run at all but I love the bat.
So far the way I look at is is we replaced Matsui’s production with Granderson. I would guess that offensively we haven’t lost too much – although I do see Matsui as beinig a more well rounded hitter (no lefty problem). The question now is do we sign a legit left fielder i.e. Bay / Halladay? or just use Damon part time and have Melky play part time LF? The first choice would help the team improve but go agaisnt payroll.
I have to say that I do worry about us trying to reign in payroll when we have A-Rod signed for a fortune and we trade our prospects that may meet the cost-control goals that we have set out for ourselves.
Personally, I would have liked to see us bring both Damon and Matsui back with Granderson simply replacing Melky… but that ship has sailed.
Great post EJ
I luv reading theyankeeuniverse blog. Keep up the good work. LONG LIVE THE EVIL EMPIRE ;-)
i think the yanks are fine. aj will pitch better than last year with full season with yanks. cc and andy will be their usual self. i think joba will have a much better season now that he has a full season of starting experience. phil hughes will pitch similar to what joba did in 2009. if you have improved joba as 4 and phil hughes (joba of 2009) as 5, i think that’s a solid rotation. plus, our offensive is still much better than the red sox. they replaced cameron’s offense with bay’s? that’s a serious downgrade. i’m not worried at all. i think 2010 will be another good season for the yanks.
Can someone explain to me why we are so against Melky in the 9 hole. Someone said “Melky is a joke with the bat”. The guy appeared in 154 games last year, hit .274 (including several big clutch hits), and played very good defense. I know he doesn’t have bay/holliday power but let’s be realistic for a minute, we don’t have to have a future hall of famer at every position on the field.
Melky is a below-average major league hitter who would be significantly below average at the offense-first left field position, slightly above average defensive player, and that was during his best season ever last year.
The world wouldn’t end with Melky in left field, but we can definitely do better. And that’s all that really matters – constructing the best roster possible.
Ahh maybe I’m a little biased toward him, he just seems like a really hard nosed player who’s only 25 and getting better. Not that he’s going to morph into Jason Bay but in the context of bottom of the order guys out there I’m betting he’s better than what a lot of other teams have. Beyond that, I hate to mess with the intangibles to much. I see him jumping around having a blast constantly, his energy seems to rub off on the other guys in the dugout. I still remember him pumping up his teamates after being scratched from the World Series game due to his hammy. There’s a ton of talent on this team, the chemistry is what brought them together and got them over the top.
I like Melky and I’ll never forget how much fun it was to root for him in 2006 when Sheffield/Matsui went down and he stepped up in their place. BUT, he is most certainly not getting better:
OPS+ by season:
2006: 95
2007: 88
2008: 68
2009: 99
WAR by season:
2006: 1.6
2007: 0.6
2008: 0.1
2009: 1.6
To me, it looks like he’s a league-average player at best. If the Yanks can do better than Melky, they absolutely should. I’d miss him from a fan-favorite standpoint but the team would be better off with a better player.
Good stats, and I agree, looking at those he pretty much is what he is. That said I still think he brings a lot of positives regarding clubhouse dynamic stuff. We need to have one guy that just goes out and does his job without a big contract/name/ego to worry about haha.
Off topic, I stumbled on this site during the playoff run and am on here pretty much everyday now. You guys are doing a fantastic job. Spot on analysis and very refreshing to read something that doesn’t include some iteration of how the sky has fallen. Keep up the great work.
Brett Gardner;
OPS+95
WAR 2.1
These numbers include his bad stats after his hand injury. Discounting the second half, Brett was much more productive then Melky, he was around .290(+). His defense is much better, his arm is rated near the top in the league (3/4). I realize we all would like to have 20+ HRs in left field but, LF in Yankee land demands a CF type player to cover all the ground out there. Other, lesser players can play LF but, give up hits in the gap, wall, etc.
Melky or Brett would be ok with me for LF. Going with one of them makes it a better chance of getting a good arm in the rotation. As stated above, we don’t need all stars at every position.
i think we all have forgotten a simple thing from this past great yankees’ season. joba was there #4 and was doing fine until the whole joba rules crap. i strongly believe he would have won a good 10-14 games had they just let him go out there and pitch! and who was there #5??? wang/mitre? you’ve gotta believe hughes is going to be better than what those 2 did combined last year right? he was off to a really good start when they called him up to START. personally, i’d be much more concerned about bostons #4 and 5. dice-k and wake? dice-k is very overated in my mind, and wake is still good… when he’s not on the DL!!! tampa bay is in better shape than boston, they got a very nice piece in r. soriano, very good move. their rotation is very good and young, and their offense is strong so watch out for them, they’ll suprise a few pweople next year!