I usually don’t do one of these in the off season, but there’s just too much stuff that’s happened recently that I want to weigh in on, and the holidays keep getting in the way. So I’ll pack some quick thoughts into this piece and have some longer pieces on the same topics in the coming days. Here goes:
-The Yanks improved themselves in the rotation and bullpen yesterday, but make no mistake about it, the Red Sox staff is still better. Vasquez would have to repeat his career year to make it close, and he’s never been anywhere near that good in the AL. Joba reaching his potential could impact this as well, but the same could be said of Buccoltz. But the Red Sox rotation is not without issues of their own. 3 of the 5 Red Sox starters have injury concerns, and if they miss time and the Yankee rotation stays healthy, then the Yanks should outperform them in the regular season. But in a short postseason series, they’ll have an edge in most of the game by game match ups. The Yankee lineup, however, is still light years ahead of the Red Sox and is by far the best in Baseball.
-Few have brought this up, but if you thought Melky and Arodys Vizcaino was a bit much for one year of Javy Vasquez, don’t forget that Javy figures to be a Type A free agent next year. If the Yanks either can’t or don’t want to retain him, you’ll get the 2 draft picks. At 33 years old in 2010, for a pitcher of his ability in what figures to be a decent economy, they will almost certainly offer arb and he should decline.
-The Yanks don’t need a big Left Fielder and Brian Cashman is saying he doesn’t expect to sign one. Do you realize that if we signed Holliday/Bay/Damon that Curtis Granderson would be our #9 hitter? The late 90s teams won big with replacement level players (Gerald Williams/Chad Curtis/Ricky LeDee) in Left and I think the Yanks want to keep the position open for the Jeter, Alex or possibly Montero. You could also sign a big CF/RF in the coming years and move Grandy/Swisher to LF. Leaving LF open gives you enormous flexibility, it’s the smart move for a GM.
-Rest of AL East should just give up now-Kenny seems to like where we stand, huh?
-As much as it stings to give up Arodys Vizcaino, I’d rather give him up than someone like Zach McAllister. At 19 years old and with very little experience in pro ball under his belt, Arodys is still a lottery ticket. It’s not like we lack high-upside guys either in the system or on the MLB staff. We still have the Brackman’s and Betances’ of the world on the farm, Joba and Phil on the 25 man and CC and AJ in the rotation. If we were this year’s Twins, where you have a staff filled with 3’s and 4’s and he was the only high upside guy you have, then maybe it would be harder to do. Mcallister could help this team this year, he’s a few rotation injuries away from getting some big league starts. He may not be ace material, but he’s likely to provide some value to us this year and beyond. Much safer bet. If you have to choose between Arodys Vizcaino and Z-Mac to complete the deal, on this Yankee team it’s a really easy call.
-My buddy EJ should be pleased to see this, and the folks who were calling him crazy the other day might owe him an apology:
Brian Cashman said once again that the Yankees, “traded for Curtis Granderson to be our center fielder.” The Yankees don’t plan on moving him to left field and starting Brett Gardner in center, but there is one scenario in which that might happen. “That scenario would be only if Brett Gardner proves he’s the best center fielder on our club,” Cashman said.
I, and many others think that he is better defensively than Curtis Granderson. UZR 150 agrees that BrettGardner is better than Curtis Granderson, and by a WIDE margin.
-Apparently Brian Cashman tried to reacquire Javier Vazquez from the Arizona D-Backs after 2005 and from the White Sox after 2008. Tells me a lot about who wanted to trade him and who didn’t on the 04 Yankees. George was still running things back then, and Torre didn’t seem to be a big Javy Vasquez fan. I always thought the Yanks gave up too soon on Vasquez, and there were reports that he wasn’t 100% that season.
-Joel Sherman reports that the Yankee payroll is around 198 mil right now, which includes educated guesses on their arbitration guys. Unless they plan on moving someone to free up payroll, it appears they are done acquiring players of any significance. Brian Cashman has already had a terrific off season (his 2nd in a row) and this team is so strong that the bench can be populated with AAA players like Pena and the newly acquired Jaime Hoffman.
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18 Responses to Random Thoughts on the Yankee Offseason
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TIQ IQ
Haha, thanks Steve. Though I have to disagree with you.
The Red Sox are not better than us on paper right now. They lost Jason Bay and replaced him with Mike Cameron, a step down. They are bringing in Marco Scutaro, a modest upgrade but a player without a stellar track record prior to last season, and wasn’t really all that good last season. They still don’t know what is going on with Mike Lowell. I’d say that they have improved a little bit since last season.
The Yankees on the other hand essentially made lateral moves by replacing Melky/Damon/Matsui with Gardner/Johnson/Granderson (more to come?), and have also significantly improved their pitching with Vazquez (Vazquez replaces Wang/Mitre/Gaudin). They also get Arod for the full year. Although a 103 win team is always subject to regression, I think the Yankee team is about as good as last year’s team.
Not sure how Bay is better than Cameron when both are 4-win players and Cameron plays better defense.
Also, not sure I see how you can say that Gardner is the better defensive outfielder when this very website wrote yesterday that it takes roughly three seasons of defensive data before you can rely on metrics such as UZR/150. Gardner hasn’t played enough for anyone to know what kind of defensive CF he is.
Just in the rotation, EJ. Our lineup blows theirs away right now, which is why they were trying so hard to replace Lowell and land a big bat.
Steve S – “The Yanks don’t need a Left Fielder and Brian Cashman is saying he doesn’t expect to sign one.”
Brian Cashman – “I will continue to look at any remaining piece, but it won’t be a big piece.”
They’re not the same. He’s going for an outfielder, just probably not Holliday/Bay/Damon. And that’s if you believe him at all. Last year at this time he said he wasn’t looking to sign anyone big, and then he signed Mark Teixeira.
I thought it was pretty clear with the triple slash of “Holliday/Bay/Damon” that I was referring to a BIG LF acquisition, but after seeing your comment and rereading it I’ll say you’re right, that I should have been more clear.
I’m not saying they might not still target a DeRosa type, they very well may still do that.
The linked article about the AL East states the obvious point: the Yankees and Red Sox will fight for the division, with the loser a strong bet for the wild card. So essentially we are right back to where we always seem to be, and Tampa’s one-year run was nothing more than that.
BTW, I am sure the Red Sox are not done yet, either.
Tampa has a really nice team going into next year though. They won’t win 100 games, but they could win 90+. I wouldn’t underestimate them.
Totally agree here – Tampa has a good team if the pitching can bounce back. I really believe they can make a push for the division, especially if Price puts it together this year & Neiman stays on track.
Also, BJ Upton could rebound quite a ways as well. Soriano was a nice addition… There is a lot to like on that club, they can play with anyone, despite what Rosenthal thinks.
I love the Yank/RedSox rivalry and I would like nothing more than to see the Yanks crush a very competitive RedSox team. Unfortunately, I don’t think the RedSox will be competitive.
I am projecting the RedSox to finish NO HIGHER than 3rd place this year…and possibly flirt with 4th. They are old, old, old.
Unless they make a big trade or signing, I think the Sox are regressing. Theo must be hamstrung by his Owners.
Let’s face it, Theo is the best person in that organization….clearly smarter than Cashman.
The biggest deal we could ever do….since the Bambino…..would be to trade Cashman for Theo “straight-up” (and send Broadway tickets to the Sox).
With Theo running the Yanks….we might never finish out of first again.
No GM is infallible. Theo’s made his share of mistakes as well. Just look at the revolving door at SS since 2003 (Nomar-Cabrera-Renteria-Lugo-Lowrie-Gonzalez-Scutaro). Matt Clement was their version of Carl Pavano. Trading for Gagne was well-intentioned but turned out horribly. For the $100M they invested in bringing Dice-K, he’s been worth an average of 2.5 wins over the first three years of his contract.
I’m not saying Theo isn’t one of the best at his job but every GM — even the best of them — have their share of gutterballs…
I think it’s a bit silly to exclaim that Boston’s rotation is clearly better than ours. Especially without any real explanation. Also, To say that our team is so good that all we need are AAA guys on the bench. Ummm, so if Arod is hurt and out for the year, playing Pena at third wouldnt affect us at all then, right?
Agree on your second point — better depth would be a good thing for the Yanks.
Disagree on your first point — Boston’s rotation is better. Pettitte/Vazquez are league-average pitchers in the AL. Burnett has the capacity to be much better than league-average but that’s basically what he was last year. Sabathia, Lester and Beckett are all elite pitchers and Lackey is a true #2 in every sense of the word. All told, Boston has two elite pitchers and a #2 and we have a #1, two league-average guys and a guy that swings wildly dominant to average from start to start.
Our rotation is deep, solid and dependable but Boston’s has more upside and elite talent. That doesn’t mean the Yanks aren’t as good or better than Boston on the whole. After all, Boston’s rotation was better on paper last year too and we still smoked them.
I have no idea why so many of you are so willing to proclaim the greatness of Brett Gardner. The man is fast, and that’s really it, and if the Yanks dared to give him a full-time OF spot I think most all of you would end up complaining about how he can’t hit and clamoring for the Yanks to trade for a real LF. You do not get better taking a Johnny Damon out of LF and replacing him with a Brett Gardner. All you do in that scenario is hit less. Much much less.
I guess this is why I only go so far when it comes to analyzing baseball statistics, because stats can tell you almost whatever you want them to. Right now they’re telling a lot of you that Gardner is a better CF than Granderson, based on a much smaller sample size, and you’re believing it.
I hope they reach an agreement with Damon.
Happy Holidays, Yankee fans, and try to remember that we just won a friggin’ WS. :)
Agree completely. Gardner is a 4th OF, not a starter.
I’m truly disappointed that the Yanks appear willing to move on without Damon over a measly $3M/year.
“I have no idea why so many of you are so willing to proclaim the greatness of Brett Gardner.”
I don’t think either EJ or I have said any such thing. Were just saying he’s an acceptable option for LF or CF given the production we get from everywhere else.
If you want to argue that we can’t win with Brett Gardner playing CF, I’d remind you that we just won the WS with Melky Cabrera as our everyday CF.
Actually it’s a measly 13 million per plus luxury tax.
I think he’s referring to the difference between the Yanks offer (2-14/7 mil per) and Damon’s offer (2-20/10 mil per)
Personally, I really don’t think we need Johnny anymore. Replacing Hideki and Johnny with Johnson and Grandy is fine, and I think both of the new guys will thrive in YSIII, as Johnny did.
One second Bretts stats are to little to count the good things, the next second they are counted on the bases of the second half of last year. The guy has a track record that shows he always improves with time.
If Cashman means what he says about the best defender in CF, Brett gets the job. His stats and our eyes prove he is the better defender.
Will he ever be a star…no! Will he ever be a starter…yes, for someone, if not the Yankees.
I don’t think Cash or Joe will put anything but the best on the field, at any position.
Heck, when Bernie first came up, people were saying bad things about him also; to skinny, looks like a deer in the head lights, etc., all of which was true but, he over came it all. He was given a chance to do the job, and he did it.
Will Brett be able to get the chance to do the job…I hope so, even if he proves me wrong.