This post is in response to the following, via Sam Borden (LoHud):
Thumbs down to anyone who wants the Yankees to go after a ‘big-name’ reliever like Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano…. I’d rather see more of Dave Robertson in 2010 than end up with another Kyle Farnsworth.
The perspective is understandable, however, note the following numbers:
In the first row, we have one of the greatest relievers of all time, Kyle Farnsworth, prior to his “memorable” stint with the Yankees. I’ve actually excluded his 1999 season from the stats, simply because of his undefined role at the time (he began as a starter and transitioned to a full-time reliever the following year, in April 2000). After Farnsworth, we then have the current career statistics for Type-A free agent reliever, Rafael Soriano. It’s important to note that Soriano’s numbers are based primarily on his time with the Mariners, in the American League, whereas Farnsworth’s statistics, outside of 42 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2005, were all produced in the National League (Cubs, Braves).
Based on the numbers featured in the table above, it’s clear that Rafael Soriano is no Kyle Farnsworth, as he has been a much more effective pitcher throughout his career. The difference in productivity between the two becomes even more apparent when you examine each pitcher’s annual FIP. For instance, in 2000 and 2002, Farnsworth’s FIP was 5.68 and 5.11. He also posted a 4.23 FIP in 2004 (in the NL, mind you). Thus, his 3.93 FIP prior to joining the Yankees isn’t really a solid representation of his work (there were some extreme FIP variations). Conversely, after Soriano’s rookie year in 2002, a year in which he posted a 4.82 FIP, the former Brave never posted an FIP in the 4+ range outside of 2007 (4.17 FIP). Therefore, when compared to Farnsworth’s career FIP, Soriano’s 3.31 is a consistent creation. It’s not the byproduct of both poor seasons and excellent seasons (it’s continued excellence, rather).
When the Yankees signed Kyle Farnsworth, he was a performative gamble in that the consistency wasn’t there. With Soriano, the only significant issue is his health. He’ll cost a draft pick if signed, which, of course, stings. However, Soriano’s arm appears worth it, especially if Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain aren’t in the bullpen next season.
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
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15 Responses to Rafael Soriano is not Kyle Farnsworth
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Are you going to write a post about how Rafael Soriano isn’t Juan Cruz?
Because he pretty much is.
It’s not worth it. A reliever has to be so good, almost Rivera-good, to have an impact worthy of giving up a first round pick.
Let’s just stop.
Why don’t you actually look at Cruz’s numbers before making that comparison? His numbers varied significantly from year-to-year. His two best seasons were separated by a span of 4 years and his FIP was close to 4 while pitching in the NL West. Again, Rafael Soriano is a different pitcher. You also ignore the fact that Soriano has spent MOST of his career in the AL (unlike Farnsworth or Juan Cruz).
People see bad relievers and immediately say, “Hey, there’s one bad reliever, therefore, his awfulness must apply to every other reliever out there.” Believe it or not, though, some relivers are actually worth paying for, especially when your bullpen isn’t a sure thing in 2010.
Totally agree with you on this one Chris ;for the reasons stated and because of the additional fact that Soriano has already demonstrated an ability to close games should that need arise during the term of his contract, unlike either Farnsworth or Cruz. As for the forfeiture of the draft choice, I think this is a fear which is vastly overrated. Looking specifically at the history of players that have picked since 1998 around the spot where the Yankees will be selecting in 2010, their post- selection history indicates a very strong likelihood that Soriano’s performance going forward will be superior to the player the Yankees would ultimately choose in thst spot . Obviously, there have been exceptions, but for every David Wright, Adam Wainwright, or Huston Street there have been multiple C. J. Henrys and Craig Hansens. This is not an indictment of Brian Cashman or the scouting staff. merely an acknowledgment of how much harder it is to project in baseball than the other sports.
I think it depends on what other moves the Yanks make. If they trade Montero, A-Jax, Joba, Phil, etc, it would be nice to replenish the now once again depleted farm system w/ draft picks. Does anyone else remember the Yanks having zero talent in the minors? A trade for a “Halladay type” would never have even been mentioned 2-3 years ago.
Wasnt the only reason why Cruz hung around so long last winter was because he was a Type-A free agent, it was nothing to do with his talent, people are treating these draft pick like they are gold, if the Yankees lose the first rounder they will make up for it in the later rounds by going overslot, Soriano would be a great pick up
Exactly, Kareem. The Yankees can literally afford to makeup for missed picks in the earlier rounds.
I would trade an Eric Duncan or CJ Henry for Soriano easy…
Chris makes excellent points the consistency of Soriano is what makes him stand apart from guys like Farnsworth or Cruz, people look at all relievers with good fastballs in terms of Farnsworth when in reality he was just one bad signing.
Rather sign Lackey, lose the 1st round pick and move Phil or Joba to the pen. That seems a hell of a lot better than trading Joba/Montero/A-Jax for Halladay, signing Soriano and still losing the first round pick.
I would rather do that, too, Matt.
I wouldn’t!
I wouldn’t want to make the trade either, I would just rather sign Ben Sheets to start and sign Soriano and lose what is basically a useless first round pick anyway.
I’d rather use Bruney who will probably be lights out next season along with Melancon and eventually DUnn.
Duff is interesting also, stop with the free agents & overspending already!
i just want to point out that the line posted for Soriano above does not represent continued excellence (which would earn him a big contract and make him worth a first round pick). No the line posted for Soriano above shows one of continued above averageness (not nearly as appealing or sexy but a more accurate interpretation of the numbers) for a pitcher that has had some injury concerns.
The only way the yankees sign a type-A reliever is if they sign another type-A, either a pitcher or a position player, which I really doubt. The only one I see is Lackey.
I agree. At least that way they’d only be giving up a second rounder for Soriano which is more palatable. 1st round draft picks may not be sure-fire things but lets not treat them as if they’re worthless just because the Yankees haven’t made very many good ones in the past…
It’s not that they’re worthless, really. It’s just that the Yankees have the ability to overpay and collect first-round talents in rounds other than the first one. Therefore, first round picks, at least for big money ball clubs, are not as integral as they are to a team like the Marlins or the Pirates. That’s not said to downplay the importance of draft picks in the first round, though. I’m just pointing out that great talent can still be acquired in the later rounds.