This off season, we’ve heard the oft-repeated line that ‘next year’s FA class is better’ and that it makes sense to sit back this season, to have money available for the bumper crop of star players available next year. But is that true? Are the players who will become available good fits for the Yanks and/or are they the types of players they’re likely to sign?
MLBTR produces an advanced Free Agent list every year, and has one for the class of 2011. Right off the bat, I’m not going to consider anyone who has a team option of any kind. If the Cards don’t exercise Albert Pujols for 16 mil with a 5 mil buyout, he must be on crutches and of no use to any team. However, Player options are fair game. If the economy improves at all (which it should) most of those are likely to be exercised. Let’s also dispose of three Yankees up front. Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera will all be Yankees as long as they are able to play Baseball, so while their contracts may be expiring, they’re not typical free agents. According to Cots, the 2011 payroll starts out at 118 mil, so there figures to be plenty of room to bring back Jeter and Mo and still be active in the FA market. The Yanks figure to have a need in the Outfield, a starting pitcher, and perhaps a Lefty reliever. Catcher is an area to look at as well, Jorge Posada will be 39 heading into 2011 and is a major candidate to regress offensively this coming season, which will make his subpar defense even harder to stomach. On to the list:
Catchers
Henry Blanco (39)
John Buck (30)
Ramon Castro (35)
Raul Chavez (38)
Ramon Hernandez (35) – option vests with 120 games played
Gerald Laird (31)
Jason LaRue (37)
Victor Martinez (32)
Joe Mauer (28)
Chad Moeller (36)
A.J. Pierzynski (34)
David Ross (34)
Jason Varitek (39)
Gregg Zaun (40) – $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyoutLeft fielders
Eric Byrnes (35)
Carl Crawford (29)
David DeJesus (31) – $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Willie Harris (33)
Jason Kubel (29) – $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout
Jason Michaels (35)
Manny Ramirez (39)Center fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33)
Coco Crisp (31) – $5.75MM option with a $575K buyout
Jody Gerut (33)
Willie Harris (33)
Andruw Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (35)
Jason Michaels (35)
Corey Patterson (31)
Willy Taveras (29)Right fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33)
Jose Guillen (35)
Brad Hawpe (32) – $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gabe Kapler (35)
Magglio Ordonez (37) – $15MM club option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in 2010
Jayson Werth (32)Starting pitchers
Bronson Arroyo (34) – $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Beckett (31)
Joe Blanton (30)
Jeremy Bonderman (28)
Dave Bush (31)
Matt Cain (26) – $6.25MM vesting option
Kevin Correia (30)
Jorge De La Rosa (30)
Justin Duchscherer (33)
Jeff Francis (29) – $7MM club option
Freddy Garcia (35)
Chad Gaudin (28)
Rich Harden (29) – $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
Aaron Harang (33) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Hiroki Kuroda (36)
Cliff Lee (32)
Ted Lilly (35)
Rodrigo Lopez (35)
Kevin Millwood (36)
Sergio Mitre (30)
Brian Moehler (39)
Jamie Moyer (48)
Carl Pavano (35)
Brad Penny (33)
Andy Pettitte (39)
Nate Robertson (33)
Jeff Suppan (36) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Koji Uehara (36)
Javier Vazquez (34)
Brandon Webb (32)
Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
Chris Young (32) – $8.5MM club optionLeft-handed relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (32)
Bruce Chen (34)
Randy Choate (35)
Pedro Feliciano (34)
Trever Miller (38) – $2MM option vests with 45 games in 2010
Darren Oliver (40) – vesting option
Dennys Reyes (34)
Arthur Rhodes (41)
J.C. Romero (35) – $4.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Bobby Seay (33)
Matt Thornton (34) - $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
A few quick observations. It’s amazing how ancient that Lefty Reliever list is, but we all know the old line about Lefties being able to find jobs in Baseball. Of that list, Jeremy Affeldt is one pitcher I could see the Yanks targeting, with Matt Thorton and Pedro Fleiciano as possibilities as well. Of course, Type A status and length of deal will be huge factors when dealing with Relievers of any kind. But given Damaso Marte‘s inconsistency in pinstripes, Jeremy Bleich‘s sub-par 2009 campaign and how far away Manny Banuelos and Wilkins De La Rosa are from MLB action, you can’t rule out a FA signing.
In the starting pitcher category, Cliff Lee stands out on that list as a perfect fit. AL pitcher with good peripherals who’s had post season success, the only thing you’d be worried about is length of deal at age 32. I don’t see the Yanks targeting Josh Beckett, even as a Plan B. They’re keenly aware of how much trouble the Red Sox have had keeping him on the field throughout his career, and at age 31 injuries begin to pile up, especially for a two-pitch power pitcher like him. If Josh couldn’t stay healthy in his 20s, you’d be foolish to think he’ll get better in his 30s. I think the Yanks will have two openings to fill, with Javy Vasquez in his final year and Andy Pettitte at age 39, though I wouldn’t rule out signing (the much traveled) Vasquez to an extension, assuming he has a good 2010 season in the Bronx. We all love Andy, but he barely got through this past season and was admittedly gassed in October. Another year of wear and tear on that arm at his age could be the tipping point past the point of effectiveness. This is why it’s a make or break year for BOTH Joba and Hughes. Rotation spots will be waiting for both of them in 2011 if they prove they can handle it this year, although the same could be said for the Closer’s role as Mariano moves well past his 41st birthday. Brandon Webb is very much a dark horse candidate, he has to prove he’s healthy before the Yanks would spend a dime on him, and shoulder injuries often signal the end for many pitchers.
In the outfield, I don’t see the Yanks targeting a 30 year old Carl Crawford. So much of his game is tied up in his speed, which figures to decline in his 30s. Also, I have long maintained that Brian Cashman will prefer to keep LF open as a landing spot for Derek Jeter and/or Alex Rodriguez. Jayson Werth makes more sense to me. A 5-win player who provides excellent power and defense, you can simply move Nick Swisher to LF and play Werth in Right. Swisher is signed through 2011, so you field the best OF we’ve had in years with Werth-Grandy-Swisher for one season and the LF landing spot is open for your aging stars afterward.
Finally, we come to Catcher. Joe Mauer is by far and away the star of the class, with Victor Martinez as another possibility. But I think the Twins will retain Mauer. He’s the face of the franchise, and with the Twins entering a new ballpark in 2010 they should have the revenue to keep him. They’ve already been discussing an extension, and the two sides don’t seem so far apart that they wont reach a deal eventually. I’ve always viewed V-Mart as more of a 1B than Catcher, so I suspect the Yanks will look to fill this area of need internally. Expect Jesus Montero to get some playing time in the Bronx in 2010, as the Yanks assess which direction they want to go.
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9 Responses to Next Year's Free Agent Class
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TIQ IQ
Unfortunately, Maurer is going nowhere. Better chance for him to depart if Boras was his agent. Shapiro will drive a good deal for him with the Twins.
Right, his agent Ron Shapiro is well known for putting his client in the best spot for him and his family and not necessarily squeezing every dime out of a team. In Mauer’s case, that spot is clearly Minnesota. Shapiro did the same with Jim Palmer, Kirby Puckett, Cal Ripken, and a zillion other guys. If the team wants him (yes) and the player wants to stay (yes) they’ll strike a deal. He’ll get a huge deal of around 20 mil per and probably have his number retired as a Twin someday.
Steve , do you really think the twins will give up 20mil?/ i think he will take less than 20mil and stay in minny..class act mauer
Abso-fricken-lutely. Although, Mauer seems the type that would be willing to take a 16 million per year deal to stay home. They did pay Nathan a lot of money, they paid Radke when they wanted him, they made Kirby Puckett the highest paid player a couple of times. They will spend if they need to, but their spending is few and far between. In the case of Joe Mauer, he is “That Guy.”
Wherever he signs, he will have more money that he needs for his lifetime and that of his kids. Why not stay in Minny and be a hometown hero? He can parlay that into a post-baseball career in politics or business, if he wants.
What it will eventually boil down to is what Mauer really deems important in his career. If he stays in Minnesota, he realistically will dramatically decrease his chances of ever winning a World Series ring. He did commit to Florida State to play quarterback; this could have been a negotiating ploy, but clearly he could have gone to the University of Minnesota if he wanted to just enroll in college to scare the Twins. He wanted to WIN if he played football, which is why he picked FSU.
Why am I writing all of this? Basically, I am playing devil’s advocate to my own previous statement. The Twins WILL try to keep him. However, if Joe Mauer wants a World Series championship, he will sign with the Yankees or Red Sox, as those teams present him with the best year in and year out championship opportunity.
There is little chance that ARod/Jeter move to left field. What makes anyone believe that they would make a smooth transition to the outfield? Jeter’s bat wouldn’t play well in left. Alex is more interesting, but I still see him eventually moving to DH full time. Werth would be a great add, and I have always had a man-crush on Crawford. The fear of Crawford being tied to speed is understood, but Damon was still a good outfielder after his speed was declining. I think that Crawford would be a great sign on a 5 year deal. Not sure if he will be 29 or 30 once he is a free agent, but either one wouldn’t make me nervous to sign him to a 5 year deal.
I agree that Mauer is going to be retained by the Twins, and I think that V-Mart will be signed to an extension by Boston. Even if he isn’t, however, he will be moved out of the catcher role soon; the transition has already begun. I think the Yankees are confident that the catcher of their future is either Montero or Romaine, and I believe that they will both share the job, with Montero being the DH on his day off behind the plate. That said, if Mauer reaches FA, he will be the starting backstop. The Yankees will put on a CC Sabathia type push for him.
I think Cliff Lee (or Vasquez if he has a good year) and one of Werth/Crawford will be signed provided Mauer doesn’t reach free agency. I could see Brandon Webb also. I totally disagree on them signing a lefty reliever; they won’t tie up another 4 million per year to get an Affeldt when they are paying that to Marte. LOOGY players are too easy to find, and far to volatile.
To clarify I didn’t advocate a LOOGY, just said that it can’t be ruled out. Other than that, agreed on most points. Thanks for reading and for the thoughtful reply.
That’s a good point, I just re-read your write up. It does say that “Affeldt is one pitcher I could see the Yanks targeting, with Matt Thorton and Pedro Fleiciano as possibilities as well,” and I guess it’s with that statement that I disagree. Feliciano is the only one that I could realistically see, and that is only because I think he would be cheapest. Regardless, I just don’t see them tying up another multi-million dollar contract to a second lefty out of the pen, but it’s not unheard of.