The recent moves by the Yanks and Red Sox have roster and trade implications for both teams. Lets take a minute and examine the potential fallout from each team’s perspective.
Yankees-Curtis Granderson: By adding Granderson’s bat, it greatly lessened the need for the Yanks to bring back Johnny Damon. That’s why Brian Cashman has a number in mind for Johnny, and if it takes more to sign him he’ll simply walk away. Many have used the recent 2-19 Bobby Abreu deal as a benchmark, but Abreu was signed to be the Angels everyday RF. The Yanks are (appropriately) signing Johnny to be a part time DH, which lessens his value to the team. You could also argue that the Yanks already have a better outfield than last year, even without signing Johnny. Curtis Granderson’s bat is similar to Johnny’s, and he’s far better defensively. So if you were to play Curtis in Center and move Melky to Left, you roughly maintain last year’s offensive output from your outfielders while upgrading yourself defensively at two positions. Johnny would be signed as much to replace Hideki Matsui as he would be to play Left Field, and as a part time DH he simply doesn’t have nearly the same value to the team. There are other, far less expensive options like Mark DeRosa or Nick Johnson, and Brian Cashman knows this.
Yankees-Jamie Hoffman: A seemingly small move as the first overall Rule 5 draft pick, but if the Yanks were to retain Johnny Damon and he was to split his duties between LF/DH, it would make either Melky or Brett Gardner very expendable. Granderson’s value is derived from him playing in Center, so Melky/Gardner would automatically be pushed to part time duty in Left. Throw Hoffman in the mix and one of these guys would never play. Gardner’s range is less important in Left and Melky’s arm is a bigger plus, so Gardner would likely be relegated to bench duty as a 5th OF/pinch runner. Though it’s worth noting that Hoffman’s skill set is very similar to that of Melky, so the Yanks may opt to trade Melky and keep Brett around as a bench player for his speed and defense. In any case, Hoffman makes one of the current outfielders redundant, so whoever has more value could be traded for some bullpen help. A 2nd Lefty would be nice.
Red Sox-Mike Lowell: His trade gives the Red Sox enormous flexibility to pursue replacements at a number of positions. They could sign a 3B like Adrian Beltre, they could move Youkilis to 3B and trade for a big bat at 1B like Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez, or they could shift Victor Martinez to 1B and try to find a Catcher via trade or a free agent stopgap. We’re already hearing rumors that they’re targeting Adrian Gonzalez and I’ll bet Theo makes a call for Miguel Cabrera as well, who would cost less in talent due to his enormous contract.
Red Sox-Mike Cameron: His signing signals the end of Jason Bay’s Red Sox career, unless they plan on putting CF Jacoby Ellsbury in a big package to get a big bat, and there are already reports of them doing just that. If they land Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, at 10.5 mil over the next 2 years they would still have room to be a dark horse for a LF like Matt Holliday or to jump back in on Jason Bay should his market recede.
Red Sox-John Lackey: With a strong rotation of Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Matsuzaka-Wakefield it potentially frees up Clay Buchholtz to be moved in a deal for a position player as discussed above. Even if they don’t love Wakefield as their #5 and/or feel his back won’t hold up, Buchholtz is still expendable. 5th starters are a dime a dozen, they can sign a guy off the scrap heap and patch things together.
The Red Sox have the potential for a monster off season if they add Cameron, Lackey and Gonzalez/Cabrera. And again, I wouldn’t rule them out on Matt Holliday should they land Adrian Gonzalez with his ridiculously inexpensive contract. That all depends on how you calculate the payroll, which I won’t get into here but check out the 1st comment I left below. If the Yanks want to maintain their edge going into next season, they still have work to do. As things stand right now, the Boston rotation is simply better than the Yanks. The Red Sox lineup still lags behind, but a deal for a big bat at 1B will narrow the gap, and if they somehow land Matt Holliday as well, then they would be clearly ahead. Yanks need a starting pitcher and to solve their LF situation to maintain the top perch in the AL East.
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7 Responses to Implications of the Yanks-Red Sox Offseason Moves
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TIQ IQ
The part of this post that is most speculative is the Matt Holliday stuff. But it depends on how you’re calculating their payroll. According to Fangraphs they’re at 123.5, 46.5 mil below the 170 number we’ve been hearing the Sox say is their limit. Maybe that number needs to be updated, but even if that doesn’t include the recent Lackey+Cammy signings the number still goes up by around 25 mil. Still 21.5 to play with, and A-Gon only makes 4.75 next year. Plus you have to subtract the salaries of the players traded to San Diego. Still 17-18 mil of room for Holliday.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=6&season=2009&month=0
However Alex Spier of WEEI has them ALREADY at 168 for salary tax purposes, and includes all the IFAs and even something called ’40 man’ and ‘Benefits’ which add up to 12 mil that he doesn’t explain.
I believe that the Sox will try to avoid paying the Salary Tax, which kicks in at 170. If they go over it will only be by a token amount, say 5-10 mil. But I’m just not sure which numbers are accurate. If its Spier, then forget the stuff about Holliday. If Fangraphs is right, then I can definitely see them landing a LF from somewhere.
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2009/12/15/breaking-bank-look-red-sox-payroll-2010
I’m pretty sure I read some comments from Theo saying that this was a record payroll for the team, and that they are just under the 170 mark. Perhaps that is because the Lowell deal is yet to go through?
I haven’t given up on the idea that Gardner might sill be a valuable starter and leadoff batter some day, somehwere.
Forget what we saw after the thumb.Think spring training, great catches, inside the parkers and clutch hit.THINK STOLEN BASES.
fRANKLY, yANKEES ARE RUINING A GREAT ASSET.
Unless the Yankees add Sheets and Damon, I’m going to anticipate the Red Sox being next year’s favorites. Seems like the Sox have at least one more big move left in them, while Cashman, though this may just be posturing for negotiating purposes, seems content to just find a relatively cheap DH option and chance it w/ Melky, Joba, and Hughes playing significant roles. Joba and Hughes both have another year of experience so perhaps this time relying on them to fill SP slots isn’t as bad as an idea as it was in 2008, but I’d still like to take a flyer on Sheets. You can never have enough SP esp when it has a ceiling as high as Sheets’. I have no prob with Melky playing some part-time LF and coming out anytime Posada/Arod/Jeet/etc. gets a half-day break by getting to the DH spot. For this to happen though the future DH needs to be able to play at least some OF. This makes Bay and Damon ideal, though Bay will cost too many years. As Yankee fans we can only hope Damon comes to his senses or no other team loses their mind and agrees to Boras’s demands.
The more I think about it, the more I think the Red Sox caught Cashman napping this week. Considering Cameron signed for such a sweetheart deal and considering the Yanks seem to be at an impasse with Damon, I don’t see why the Yanks didn’t just sign Cameron and tell Damon to go eff himself.
As for Lackey, perhaps it wouldn’t have been prudent to sign him to a 5Y/$85M deal when the Yanks are already so heavily invested in the front of their rotation but they certainly didn’t do themselves any favors by just letting him go to Boston without getting involved. It’s not that I wanted Lackey, it’s that the flexibility he gives them in trading Buchholz that makes his signing so dangerous. Cabrera (or Gonzalez and Holliday) would make Boston a very clear favorite in 2010 and beyond.
I’m not panicing but I’m not thrilled that the Yanks added Granderson when Cameron was just sitting there for the taking and will settle on feasting at the dogshit buffet of Sheets, Duchscherer or some other reclamation project while Lackey fortifies Boston’s rotation in such a strong manner.
Perhaps because Cashman didn’t want to give Cameron a 2 year deal? Personally I’m a big Cameron fan, but two years is a little risky, I rather give that to Damon, even when you factor in the defensive issues.
Also I’d say the Redsox rotation is deeper than the Yankees, but on a player to player comparison I wouldn’t say its overly better.
I’m real happy we didn’t sign Cameron.He’s the type that will get old overnight one season and start striking out even more and batting .220.
Hope it’s this season.