A lot of prospect lists are tossed out over the course of the off season. By far the most influential one – the one quoted almost exclusively quoted in newspapers – is Baseball America’s Top-10 list. The list is available freely on line for everyone to read, but the scouting reports are subscriber only. The list:
1. Jesus Montero
2. Austin Romine
3. Arodys Vizcaino
4. Slade Heathcott
5. Zach McAllister
6. Manuel Banuelos
7. Gary Sanchez
8. J.R. Murphy
9. Jeremy Bleich
10. Andrew Brackman
This list heavily, disproportionately, favors low-level, high-ceiling talent over surer things. This is in contrast to last year’s BA list, which included low-ceiling sure bets Phil Coke, Alfredro Aceves, and the medium-ceiling Mark Melancon. This year’s list has an average age of just 20, almost 19 without Brackman.
While in some ways this is nitpicking, the ranking of McAllister so low is a part of the persistent pattern of BA underrating guys who don’t throw 95. Ask yourself this question: If you had Zach McAllister, would you trade him for Arodys Vizcaino? There’s no way in hell I would. McAllister is ready to contribute in the major leagues, and has a pretty good chance of being, well, pretty good. He’s no ace, but there’s a ton of value in a guy who can pitch 200 above-average innings and stay healthy. McAllister is that guy. Vizcaino has a lot of time to get injured or develop some kind of problem.
That said, the list is impressive, and an improvement over last season. There is some serious ceiling potential in the young guys. Someone on the bottom two thirds of the list is going to evolve into the next Jesus Montero, and maybe even the next Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, or Mariano Rivera.
I don’t currently have a subscription for economic reasons, but Mike at River Ave Blues mentioned Baseball America’s scouting report of Montero. They said that he has improved to only below-average defensively (something that Mike Ashmore has also said), and may grade out to an 80 hit, 80 power guy. That praise is as strong as you are ever going to see for Montero. The consensus seems to be that, at least for now, Montero will enter the Major Leagues as a catcher.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
11 Responses to Baseball America Releases Its Top-10 Yankee Prospect List
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
“….Someone on the bottom two thirds of the list is going to evolve into the next Jesus Montero, and maybe even the next Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, or Mariano Rivera….”
Not “IS going to evolve”, but rather “HOPE is going to evolve”..since so many “laptop scouts” think Montero is the junior version of Albert Pujols, he should get as many ABs as possible in Spring Training. If he’s that good, then we should see him in the Majors in 2010.
We should absolutely not see him in the majors in 2010 unless you plan on making him the full-time DH for the rest of his career. He’s 20 years old and has played a little over two full seasons of minor league ball. His bat may be close to MLB-ready but his defense isn’t. He needs at least one (if not two) more years of minor league baseball if the Yanks intend to keep him behind the plate.
Steve, I think you mistake rhetorical flourish for prophesy.
FYI EJ: I have a subscription and have read the scouting reports. I don’t want to violate copywright laws by reposting them in their entirety but I’d be happy to provide you with access. Moshe has my private email if you’re interested.
Thanks MJ. I’ll talk to Moshe about it after finals.
These smaller pitchers rarely amount to anything more than occasional relievers.Yankees have better prospects than some of the guys on that list.
I wonder where Aroldis Chapman would be on BA’s list, should we sign him.
Given how weak the list is after Montero, he’d have to be either #1 or #2. I’d say #2, since Montero is far more proven.
I think the Yankees farm system’s strength is in the numbers.Some of these kids not in the top 10 but in the top 40 will develop far above some of the kids listed top 10.It’s an arbitrary and pretty useless list that shows little understanding of the Yankee farm system.
So, I actually disagree, even though I knocked BA in the post above. If you look at my post from earlier this Fall, I rated all of the young players listed in the top-10 except for J.R. Murphy (15) and Gary Sanchez (not listed as a part of my practice to wait for LA players to come stateside), just a tick lower for all of them.
BA is betting big on the Yankees really good young base of prospects. I don’t think that shows a lack of understanding of the Yankee farm system – everyone agrees that these guys are very good. I’m a bit surprised to not see De Leon up there, but besides that everything is consistent. What I think it shows is a consistent undervaluing of major league ready (or close to it) players. That’s why I rated Melancon #6, and they left him out of the top 10.
I really don’t see how you can legitimately put Brackman in the top 10 anymore I mean I guess he still has an ace’s ceiling but the chances of him even making the majors now are starting to slim up, the guys is 24 and hasn’t even been a successful starter in A ball I would put a ton of prospects above him at this point.
He’d almost definitely slot in at #2. I love Austin Romine, but there’s a huge gulf there.