I saw this in a Jim Callis chat yesterday and thought it relevant:
Greg (LA)
Is it possible that the pendulum is swinging too far, and teams now OVERVALUE their draft picks? A rich team can lose their #1, which is presumably near the end of the round, and recover by picking more overslot players. What is the track record of end of round draft picks? I’m sure it’s lower than top of the round picks.
Jim Callis (2:27 PM)
Very good point, Greg. A team that’s willing to spend can easily compensate for giving up a pick in the back half of the first round. If there were a free agent I really wanted, I wouldn’t sweat losing my first-rounder.
I thought this was fascinating look into the current free agent compensation system. A team like New York and Boston can make up for losing an early pick by drafting a number of signability guys in later rounds. The talent disparity between first round talents and those players who drop due to contract issues is not great enough to prevent a team from signing a good free agent.
I think this is relevant when considering a player such as Rafael Soriano for the Yankees. My first instinct is to conclude that Soriano is just a luxury and is therefore not worth a first round pick. However, assuming the Yankees do not change their draft budget due to the lack of a first rounder, they are likely to come out of the draft with a similar amount of talent to what they would have if they had refrained from signing a Type A free agent. It may make sense for a team with plenty of draft resources to sign the free agents they want and compensate by drafting high upside, high cost players in later rounds.
What do you think? Have the Yankees become too attached to draft picks?
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8 Responses to Are Teams Overvaluing Draft Picks?
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TIQ IQ
Agreed.In comparison to the other sports, the relative value of the 1st round draft choice in baseball is not nearly as great.I think a quick look at the first player selected by the Yankees in the 11 drafts,excluding 2009, since Cashman took over in 1998 illuminates this point.
2008- Gerris Cole-Unsigned
2007- Andrew Brackman- Arm surgery;5.91 ERA in Low Class A in 2009
2006- Ian Kennedy
2005- C.J. Henry- Traded;Currently out of organized baseball
2004- Phillip Hughes
2003- Eric Duncan-.204 BA in Trile A in 2009: No Major league at bats
2002- Brandon Weeden-Out of organized baseball sinec 2006; No MLB appearances
2001- John-Ford Griffin-7 hits in the majors after 9 years in oprofessional baseball
2000- David Parrish-Out of organized baseball;No MLB at bats
1999- David Walling-Out of organized baserball since 2002; no major league appearances
1998- Andrew Brown- Out of MLB
A total of 14 major league wins and 7 hits. The jury is still out on three of these guys but still not very inspiring. Obviously, the Yankees and other teams need to continue to mine for young talent.As you suggest this can be accomplished by investing the money earmarked for the # 1 draft choice in the later rounds, as well as signing more players from Latin America and the Far East who are not draft eligible.
I don’t think it’s particularly informative to look at who the Yankees have drafted since 1998 and to then make the assumption that very little value comes out of the first round. Perhaps the Yankees have drafted poorly over the years? In certain instances it does appear that this was the case.
That isn’t to say that the Yankees shouldn’t give up their first round pick if there is a worthwhile free agent available. Last year was a textbook case where it makes sense to give up draft picks for impact players like Sabathia and Teixeira. But I don’t look at the Yanks’ first-round draft pick history as anything more than a team’s flawed draft strategy that has only recently begun to improve.
Actually the Yankee draft history for this period seems to be very reflective of the career path for the great majority of players selected at the end of the first round. I took a look at MLB drafts for the period between 1998, the year Brian Cashman started as GM, and 2003, a year chosen because to give enough time for draft choices to make the majors and establish a level of performance. I l have looked at the last 5 players chosen in the first round- picks 26-30- as well as supplemental picks 31-40 after the first round, Of this group of approximately 90 players, Soriano’s career surpasses the projected career of all players chosen in that group except the following(Group 1):I am also including a separate list of players (Group 2) who in my mind have either not shown a Soriano- level of performance but others may disagree. with or have shown some indication that they may lift their level to equal or surpass Soriano in the future..
Group 1
David Wright
Adam Wainwright
Adam Jones
Group 2
Kelly Johnson
Jeremy Bonderman
Jeff Mathis
Aaron Heilman
Mark Teahan
Dustin McGowan
Daric Barton
A very short list. Players with enough promise to be drafted this high simply don’t perform in the minors or if they do reach the majors often break down( Bonderman, McGowan, Noah Lowery). Looking quickly at the period between 2004 and 2008, there have been players chosen – Rasmus, Coughlin, Bard and Porcello- who have already shown indications that they equal or surpass Soriano but again it appears that overwhelming majority will not. Financial considerations aside, the very strong probability exists that Rafael Soriano’s future career will greatly surpass the career of the person the Yankees or some team might draft with the pick they are forced to forfeit. Sure, there’s a chance the Yankees will mine a David Wright or an Adam Wainwright.But it is far more likely that even with an improved strategy, better scouts or other improvements the pick will turn out to be at a Scott Thorman, the player the Braves picked with the very next pick after they chose Wainwright in 2000, than a Rafael Soriano..
Add Aaron Rowand to Group A . My mistake.
The only way you value a draft pick is if it comes from a trade, Aka Billy Wagner for the Red Sox. If you give up players of ok talent then the draft picks become of high value. Because you didn’t give up much and the talent that you would get from the draft can be players of higher talent.
Another way picks are of high value is if that drafting class is loaded with high talent. At that point you do want more draft picks in the 1st round. Better chance of getting a player that can really help the team.
think about some of the yankees best prospects for a moment. a-jax, z-mac, montero, romine, robertson, coke, etc. they were all later picks and/or came from international signings! you can get by w/o a first round pick if you use it wisely (dont you think tex, cc, aj were worth giving up those draft picks) not every year are you going to get big name free agents and have to surrender a 1st rounder but if there is a direct and crucial need for your team go for it! you can make up for it in later rounds and/or international signings. comments?
I definitely agree that the Yanks can afford to give up a draft pick (or two, or three, as we did last year) when impact players are available. I just don’t agree that Rafael Soriano is that player. There have been plenty of polished college relievers drafted in the latter half of the first round recently — Ryan Perry or Daniel Schlereth for example — that I don’t see the need for the Yanks to pay draft picks for a setup man like Soriano.
well in my mind BECAUSE of the fact nyy can make up for losing a pick, they should consider signing soriano. why? he’s got electric stuff. this wouldnt be farnsworth2 but he has great movement to a mid 90′s fastball and a really nasty slider. his control is pretty good and his only nock through his years with seattle and atlanta was his health. now yes, giving an injury plagued pitcher is risky (aj!) but the risk would be worth it IF he were to be healthy. comments?