The non-Yankeeist Yankee blogs that I follow seem split on the team’s offseason moves. Some have been positive. Others have been negative. Much has been made of Curtis Granderson‘s platoon splits and strikeouts, as well as Nick Johnson‘s mouth-watering OBP, when he isn’t injured. But I haven’t seen a straightforward analysis of whether the team has gotten better or worse. Allow me to provide a simple one.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Hideki Matsui was worth 2.1 wins last season and Johnny Damon was worth 4 wins. Curtis Granderson was worth 2.7 wins and Nick Johnson was worth 2.4 wins, between Florida and Washington. This means that if the 2009 Yankees had Granderson and Johnson instead of Matsui and Damon the team would have won 1 less game during the regular season.
The best predictor of future performance is the most recent past performance. Therefore, without relying on any assumptions about improved outfield defense or a return to form for Granderson, right now the 2010 Yankees project to be a 102-win team. And they’re likely going to see improved outfield defense and a return to form from Granderson.
It’s hard not to be impressed with Brian Cashman right now. The team has gotten younger and cheaper without getting worse.
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