Mike Axisa tackled this topic earlier, and it was one I was hoping to get a jump on as the news came over a slow baseball weekend that Josh Johnson and the Marlins are at a stalemate in negotiations after Florida offered him a pitiful three-year $21 million extension.
The good news is that Johnson will certainly be leaving Florida. The slightly less good news is that he’s not a free agent until after the 2011 season, which means anyone interested in acquiring Johnson will have to pay a king’s ransom. Mike speculates that a package including one of Joba/Hughes, Jesus Montero and two lesser prospects might get it done.
As excellent as Johnson is — a ridiculous 3.06 FIP (7th-best in baseball, right behind Doc Halladay) and 5.5 WAR in 2009 (and as Mike notes, as much as we want Joba/Hughes to succeed in pinstripes, it’s unlikely that either would end up developing into an even better pitcher than Johnson is right now) — I’m not sure the trade makes a ton of sense from the Yankees’ perspective. Granted, you’d get two cost-controlled years of one of the best young pitchers in the game, but sacrificing one of your own top two young pitchers along with one of the best hitting prospects around looks like an overpay. It also flies in the face of the way the Yankees have been conducting business these last few years.
When was the last time the Yanks made a big-time trade in which they had to part with at least one significant prospect? Probably the Randy Johnson deal in the winter of ’05, and that one didn’t even sting that badly as Dioner Navarro wasn’t anywhere near as heralded as Montero is.
If the Yankees were somehow able to pry Johnson from the fish using one of Joba/Hughes and an assortment of non-Montero prospects, then by all means, make it happen. Otherwise, I have no problem waiting Johnson out so he can pitch to new Yankee batterymate Montero in 2012.
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4 Responses to Will the Yankees reel Josh Johnson in?
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Giving up one of Joba/Hughes for Johnson is a no-brainer. As a best case scenario, they can develop into what Johnson already is, but the deal won't work for two reasons:
the first is that I'm pretty sure Joba is arbitration eligible after next year. If he has a good year, he will start getting too expensive for the Marlins pretty quickly. I'm not sure what Hughes' arbitration clock looks like, but that would likely be the deciding factor for the Fish.
The second is that I don't think a deal that doesn't include Montero will get it done, and the Yankees need a young catcher more than they need young starter, even one of Johnson's caliber
Montero is worth keeping for his bat, but it is important to note that he probably will not play Catcher in the majors. He is currently viewed as a terrible defensive Catcher and scouts have already begun speculating about where he fits now that the Yankees have a long term first base option in Tex.
Here's my question…If, as you admit, neither hughes or joba will end up being better than Johnson is right now, why weren't they given up for Santana…and why wouldn't you be ok to give them up for Halladay. I know those two are a bit older, and we're talking about completely different salaries, but if you're talking about sheer talent, you can't really expect hughes or joba to end up as good as any of the three.
Good question. My biggest problem with both the Santana and Halladay situations is that it seems shortsighted to trade for a guy who could be had for just money in one year.
I'm also obviously a tad biased with regards to our own guys, given how long it's been since the Yankees actually developed a frontline starter from within.
While Joba/Hughes may never be as good as Santana or Doc, I'd still rather have Joba and Phil plus those guys, not instead of.
Granted, it didn't work with Santana, although I truly thought he was going to make it to free agency. I also think Halladay will make it to free agency as well — as good as he is, he's also four years older than Santana was in 2007, and I just don't see the Yanks or Sox being willing to trade their young players. But I could be completely wrong.
As far as Johnson goes, he only has two years on Hughes and one on Joba, which makes hypothetically parting with one of our own a bit more palatable.