One of the Yanks toughest calls this off season
Now that the off season has officially begun for the Yanks, I’m going to switch from my ‘Random Thoughts’ posts about the games and various news items to specific pieces on players and payroll issues the Yanks will have to address this off season. Each one deserves its own post examining the thought process behind the decision as I see it.
First up is Chien Ming Wang. Making a decision on him will be one of the Yanks toughest calls this off season. We all know his track record of being a back to back 19 game winner and his propensity to eat up innings and pitch deep into games with a low pitch count. When he’s right, he saves your bullpen from being overworked every 5th day and is an extreme ground ball pitcher who gives up very few Home Runs. Given the improved Yankee infield defense with the addition of Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter’s resurgence as a Shortstop, we can only imagine what kind of season Wang might have had if he stayed healthy this year. Going into the 2008 season, I thought he was a lock to log his first 20+ win campaign. Fans may remember that his last 19 win season in 2007 was one which he missed most of April with a hamstring pull, so 20 wins seemed conservative if he stayed healthy. But we all know what happened in 08, he suffered a foot injury running the bases in Houston and followed that up in 2009 with his 3rd shoulder injury in his time with the Yanks.
Shoulders are always the trickiest, unlike elbow injuries which can be repaired shoulder injuries can either end a career or leave a pitcher a shell of his former self. Yankee fans just watched their team wrap up a World Series title facing a once great pitcher whose career started heading downward at a relatively young age with a torn labrum. Pedro’s brother Ramon had a promising pitching career ended by a shoulder injury as well. Wang’s injury doesn’t appear to be major, he was diagnosed with a damaged capsule, which is considered less serious than a torn labrum or rotator cuff tear. But even when he was healthy last year, he pitched terribly. He clearly lost his delivery as a result of last year’s Lisfranc foot injury, and his confidence sagged along with the results. Adding recovery from another injury only muddies the waters even further. It’s anyone’s guess if he’ll ever regain the form he had 2005-2008.
Fans aren’t going to want to hear this, because we all want things resolved and tied up nice and neatly. But the Yankees probably will take a ‘wait and see’ approach with our former Ace. I think Wang’s contract situation won’t be resolved until he starts throwing again, which as Joe Pawlikowski from River Ave detailed will be next spring. He’s still in rehab mode right now, and checking in with Dr James Andrews to get updates on his progress. They’ll want to see what he looks like on a mound before investing any money in him. And if they approach him that way, it’s the smart move.
After they look at him, he likely will still only get an incentive-laden offer from the Yanks. But since the Yanks are a lock to non-tender him this off season, many other teams will be monitoring his progress and he will be bidding on him as well. How much the Yanks will be willing to guarantee will be key to how this plays out, and will depend on how he looks in the spring. From Wang’s side how much money is guaranteed will heavily influence where he lands, but changing teams will factor in as well. He’s got enough on his plate already coming back from what amounts to two injuries. Changing teams would only add to his adjustment period. So the Yanks will have certainly an inside track on him. From the perspective of rival teams, if the Yanks were to pass on him completely it would send up a red flag on Wang’s health. GMs are often hesitant to offer contracts to injured pitchers when their original team wont bid on him, especially one that throws around money like the Yanks do. Nobody knows a pitcher’s health history better than the team that developed him, and if they’re willing to pass there’s a sense of Caveat Emptor on the part of other GMs.
One very important note about Wang, he may be more valuable to the Yanks than anyone else. When he’s right, he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher who gives up very few Home Runs. The new Yankee Stadium yielded a franchise record in HRs this year. He could be an even better fit if there’s an early injury to one of the starters and/or we never get the 8th inning situation settled, which is an open question going into next year. I assume Joba and Hughes will be our #4 and #5 starters next year, so the primary set up role that Hughes performed so well last year is still unsettled. Should one of them struggle as starters next and the bridge to Mariano becomes shaky, there will be a pull to move one of them back to the setup role and an open spot in the rotation as a result. The timing of this all works out pretty well for the Yanks and Wang. He won’t be ready to go until mid-season next year, and by that time we’ll have a good idea of where the Yanks stand in both their rotation and bullpen. All totaled, the Wang situation doesn’t appear to be one that will be settled anytime soon.
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12 Responses to What's Cookin on the Hot Stove?-Chien Ming Wang edition
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TIQ IQ
CMW would be perfect for us next year…if he fully recovers his ’06/’07 form. He avg., about 6-2/3 innings a start, which is good now-days. I have always liked the way he pitches, maybe things will work out for him and the Yankees.
Excellent article. It says it all very well. There’s not much that I could add to this.
Maybe just this….What a boost to the Yanks if he can indeed, come back to his old form.
Also, one long term thing to consider is that Wang is a national hero in China (even though he is from Taiwan). And China is a vast developing market for baseball. It would be good business for the Yankees to further establish their brand on the mainland, and having a successful comeback story for Wang, next year, would be a great, great story.
Who knows, maybe in 20 or 30 years, MLB will be getting tons of baseball talent from China, like it has been getting from Latin America in recent decades. It would be nice to hear, in say 2022, the best prospect in China say, “I signed with the Yankees because CMW was my hero, and he was a Yankee.”
Both You and Steve have a great perspective…One from the realistic side and the other, from the future impact on the Yankees.
Very good work guys.
This could also apply to Godzilla and Japan. Keeping the pipeline open for another year and treating him well might help land someone (like Yu Darvish) in the future.
True, true…
absolutely
Chien Ming Wang is a well established pitcher from Taiwan. Taiwan is a developed nation with its own democratically elected political system, economy, currency, military, health and social welfare system. Oh yeah, Taiwan respect human rights and freedom of speech. So Taiwan is not part of China. There will be no doubt more Taiwanese baseball prospects will be arriving from TAIWAN, but mlb should bring up guys from the farm system as well.
Oldfan: You are probably Chinese or who has a wife who is Chinese but please don’t spew Chinese Communist propaganda here and try to confuse people.
Geeze, Dave, relax.
Your the first person in my life to ever call me a communist, or even associate me with anything communistic.I am far, far from being a communist. That is a good one.
Listen, you are reading far more into my comment than is there.
I do understand where you are coming from, as I am a history buff,and world traveler, in addition to being a baseball fan, and if we had a nice talk, I think that we would probably agree 99% on the geopolitics of free Taiwan/ mainland China. But, I come here to talk Baseball, not politics, or international geopolitics.
You know, MLB led a team, which included representatives from the Yankees and Red Sox, to mainland China in the last year to start initiatives, dialogues, etc. on BASEBALL. I find big picture things like this very interesting.
I like CMW, and hopes that he makes a great comeback with the Yankees.
I don’t feel that I said anything controversial in my comment. For instance, if I make a comment about the Yankees extending their scout system into Venezuela, or Panama (to find another Mo),or Puerto Rico,or any country or region, I don’t feel like I should be made to write a treatise on the geopolitical or political situations in those countries, and explain my views on them.
I’m just talking baseball, or the Yankees, or the business of baseball.
Admit it, my friend—you over-reacted big time.
Next time, why don’t you ask more, instead of assumming what isn’t there, before you attack so readily.
Hey, we just won the World Series!
One thing I’m a little confused on is how will the Yankees see Wang throw on a mound and then sign him? Won’t he become a free agent if they non-tender him and wouldn’t other teams be willing to offer him a new contract? If that’s the case, and one would have to assume that it is, wouldn’t it prevent the Yankees from signing him next year (if he’s already with a new team)?
If (when) he’s a FA the Yanks will be in the same boat with everyone. If another team signs him first or for more money, it will be because the Yanks gave up on him. See Ben Sheets.
Bingo.
Let me add that the risk of losing him is fairly low, given his performance last year. Pitchers who pitched WELL that are hurt don’t get signed. See Ben Sheets.
Ben Sheets isn’t comparable, though. He had surgery well into the offseason, after filing for free agency (he wouldn’t be able to pitch all year). Wang had surgery in July.