Earlier this week, I posted the following comment regarding Aroldis Chapman:
I don’t think that he is worth 15 million let alone 50 million.
What do we know about him?
1. He pitched in Cuba for a few years. Our best guess on the level of competition between Cuba and low-level international competition is A+/AA.
2. He has erratic, but great, velocity on his fastball. Sometimes he’ll throw 90, sometimes he’ll throw 100.
3. He has terrible control.That doesn’t sound like Matsuzaka to me, who was one of Japan’s (higher level of competition, most good Japanese players went straight to the majors. Most Cuban players had a tougher transition) best pitchers, and in his prime.
Chapman should be treated like a high first round high school pick, but a little older. Let the Red Sox spend their money – I’d rather they spend it on a wild lefty with no track record than John Lackey.
After some reflection, I believe that I was wrong.
I still believe that Aroldis Chapman should be considered a prospect. He is young, inexperienced, and raw. He also has tremendous stuff and potential. Fans looking to place him directly into the MLB would be disappointed.
But that said, he is still worth 15-20 million on the open market. Think about it this way: were Chapman eligible for the draft, where would he be drafted? Based on his stuff, there is no way he would not be a top-5 pick, even without any college experience. These players often command 5 million dollars or more for their signing bonuses when teams have exclusive negotiating rights and benefits of the slotting system. Its hard to see them commanding less than 10 million on the open market.
Stephen Strausberg is a better prospect than Chapman, but imagine what we would have gotten had all 30 teams been allowed to bid on his services? I’d say he could have commanded 30 million. 15-20 million is a relatively small bet to make for potential production that could be worth 100 million dollars or more.
So yeah, I think he’s worth it. Go get him Cash.
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80 Responses to Second Thoughts on Aroldis Chapman
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TIQ IQ
I think that the comp is Dellin Betances.
Look – Cuba is a dump but they do know how to play baseball. Chapman got some pretty decent coaching and at 21, he still has huge control problems. He could be worth $100 million but the probability seems pretty low.
You’re probably right that the probability is low. But what are the chances that he’s worth 15 million? Pretty good. You don’t have to be that valuable of a MLB baseball player to be worth 15 million over 6 years. And what about 100 million? Even if there is just a 1 in 5 chance that he’s worth that much… that’s still a good bet.
Teams place huge money on prospects because of the huge potential payoffs, even if the probability of that payoff is low. That’s why the Yankees paid Andrew Brackman so much. I don’t think that Betances is a good comparison – Betances was never a top-5 prospect, and had flaws (though tremendous potential) from the get-go. Chapman is a lefty with betters stuff and much more advancement.
I wouldn’t overestimate the experience that Chapman has had in Cuba. They may have some good coaching, but the level of competition that he plays against lends itself to poorer play. When you’re playing the Dutch national team, do you really care if you walk a few extra players? You’re going to get 15 strikeouts anyway.
I would also say the Betances and Brackman comparisons aren’t good ones… Brakcman and Betances had injury concerns before the Yankees got them, Brackman had to have TJ when nwe drafted him and with Betances it was only a matter of time before he had TJ. No one even mentions injury when talking about Chapman which is a good sign because if he had injury problems that would talked about a lot to drive the price down.
If the new estimates are right and Chapman is only going to receive 20-25 million in total over 5-6 years then I think it’s a no brainer for the Yankees to sign him… He has upside to be an ace with his stuff and no matter how long shot that may be a left hander throwing 100 is special….
Everyone complains he is so “raw” well yeah he is only 21… Joba is 23 and still hasn’t figured it out and when you consider one of the greatest left handed pitchers of all time in Randy Johnson didn’t figure it out until he was 29 and coming off 3 consecutive seasons of 140+ BBs.
Joba has not figured it out consistently as a 23 year old IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL against the best hitters in the world.
When Joba was 21, he was crushing hitters in the minors at a higher level than Chapman was last year in Cuba.
You have made my point for me. Joba has control problems to this day that prevent him from being a consistent start in the majors. He has average control and will need to learn above average control to be an ace.
But his stuff is so good, he was dominant in the minors as a 21 year old (and as a reliever in the majors).
My point is that if you have dominant stuff, you should not be walking that many hitters against weak competition unless you really have some control problems.
In 2006 when Joba was 20 he had an amazing 6-4 record in 89 innings pitched with 84 hits 8 Hrs and 34 BBs which is 3.4 BBs/9, 8.5 Hs/9 and a 3.93
Now was he really crushing them or was he getting by?
Chapman when he was 20- 4.03 ERA, 118 IP, 109 H, 62 BBs, 130 Ks
Chamberlain when he was 20- 3.93 ERA, 89 IP, 84 H, 34 BBs, 102 Ks
Very similar numbers aren’t they? I would also say Cuba probably has tougher competition than Nebraska faced on a regular basis.
Exact same 9.9 K/9 and Chapman actually has a better H/9 than Joba did with only a slightly higher walk total and Chapman did it in 6 more starts against better competition when he was crossing the 100 pitch mark for the first time in his career. Seeing as how those are both Chapman’s and Chamberlain’s last year before going to the minor I say they are on a very similar level of development.
In fact they developed so close that when they were both 19 they had ERAs under 3.
Aroldis Chapman (19) 2006-2007- 81 IP, 59 Hs, 4 HRs, 50 BBs, 100 Ks, .207 BAA, 2.81 ERA
Joba Chamberlain (19) 2005-2006- 118 IP, 91 Hs, 7 HRs, 33 BBs, 130 Ks, .250 BAA, 2.81 ERA
Chapman- 6.48 H/9, 5.49 BB/9, 11.07 K/9
Chamberlain- 6.93 H/9, 2.43 BB/9, 9.90 K/9
Chapman had a better H/9 than Joba and a much higher K/9 than Joba but obviously Joba didn’t walk nearly as many batters, if I had to guess the reason, Chapman was probably going for strikeouts more and when you do that you tend to walk a lot of batters tying to get them to swing and miss… his high 5.49 BB/9 at 19 years old shows his mind set when he also has a ridiculous 11.07 K/9 while Joba only had 9.9.
On top of that you can see the following year Joba actually walked more per 9 than than he did the previous year while raising his K/9 to 10.3 both higher than he did the year before. Chapman on the other hand lowered his BB/9 the following year while also lowering his K/9 to 9.9 That shows better development from 19-20 from Chapman than Joba showed.
Joba’s walk rate is less than half of Chapman’s.
“Chapman was probably going for strikeouts more ”
I think that the far more likely explanation is that Chapman just has much worse control than Joba.
One can go back a few years with two pitchers, one lefty one righty…Sandy Koufax(L) and Herb Score.
Sandy came up as a very very (for those days) wild fastball and a little curve type of pitcher…it took him six years to learn how to put it all together, now he’s in the hall of fame (not deserved) for being a very good six year pitcher. Worth $100mm in today’s market?
Then you have the better of the two; Herb Score(R). First two years he was very very good, got hit in the eye and lost vision in one of the eyes, retired in three or four years. Worth $100mm in this market?
What needs to be addressed (and has been by EJ) is, the Talent is there, the age is there, the coaching is here, the money is here, the team is here…get him here.
Do you really feel Koufax shouldn’t be in the hall of fame? I have many debates on this and I can really see both sides but if you bring it up people usually act like you don’t know what you are talking about… Sandy was a great pitcher but only for a short time.
Let’s assume that this is a deal that gives the Yanks control for 6 years in the majors. Year 1, Chapman is so-so- worth say $5 million. He becomes a star and consistently pitches like a star in years 2-6. That means he has to be a $19 million star to be worth $100 million. Basically, he has to be one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball.
At $15 million, that is $2.5 million per year – which is more reasonable. The issues are 1) does he even learn enough control to make it to the majors? and 2) Does he get hurt.
Well he will start his first year in the minors and probably not even make it to the majors until a year after that!
Where is everyone getting 100 million? Lackey will be lucky to make that… At max the kid will get 45-50 million over 5-6 years and the newest reports put it at closer to 20-25 million over 5-6 years which is really a no brianer.
“I wouldn’t overestimate the experience that Chapman has had in Cuba. They may have some good coaching, but the level of competition that he plays against lends itself to poorer play.”
I don’t really buy into this. I think it’s far more likely that he just has control problems. It is not an easy thing to throw a baseball 60 feet 6 inches and have it land within 3-6 inches of the target consistently.
It took Randy Johnson 4 years in the majors to get his act together. Koufax took 4 plus parts of 2 other seasons.
Betances is a pretty good comp, I think. He’s a bit younger than Chapman but also has very high ceiling stuff and control problems. The peripheral numbers are pretty close as well.
Betances is a terrible comparison… Betances is a tall injury prone right handed pitcher with almost no chance of making it to the majors… Chapman is a left handed pitcher who stands around 6’4 and has no real injury concerns at all.
They both max out their fastballs around 100 and have control problems. They are close to the same age. They have faced roughly the same level of competition and have had similar results.
At the end of the day, what matters is results. You don’t get an extra ball because you’re a lefty. They have lefty batters and hitters in Cuba too. Chapman pitched lefty in Cuba and he still had control problems. Against some lineups, it’s an advantage to be a lefty. Against some it is a disadvantage.
Here are their 20 year old seasons:
Betances 115.33 innings 10.5 K/9 4.6 BB/9 (low A)
Chapman 118.33 innings 9.9 K/9 4.7 BB/9 (Cuba)
A lefty gets more opportunities in this league and you are kidding yourself if you think they don’t, a left handed pitcher with a 100 MPH fastball is a lot more rare than a right hander and because of that most batters never to rarely face that kind of heater from the left side, that is what gives guys like CC and Randy an advantage over righties that have a high heater.
The other thing that separates them is Chapman carries no injury concerns while with Betances everyone knew more than likely he would eventually end in TJ surgery that really makes a huge difference.
I also don’t think I would compare Cuba to low A, it’s more than likely closer to a dumbed down double A which Betances never made it too and won’t even be pitching next year.
Look the Cubans he faced didn’t see that many lefties and likely never saw one who threw 100mph and he still walked them at those rates.
He was walking them because he was trying to strike them out… If you look at his batting averages against (which is where being a lefty makes a difference not walks) he never got above .240 BAA and he most was under .220 BAA that is huge… One year he had a .200 BAA as a 19 year old.
His walks come from a common problem with young power pitchers (Joba is a good example) they have this great power stuff and because of that they want to strikeout everyone they face but in doing that you end up walking guys trying to get them to chase and trying to be to fine, once they learn to pitch to contact and only really go for the K when they need it it evens out the walks and the BAA takes over and the ERA goes down because they are putting less men on.
Lefties often times walk more batters than righties when there young because since there are less lefty handed pitchers it is harder to get there mechanics down and get people that know how to instruct a lefty, Johnson walked everyone under the sun for 6 years before getting it down but he was striking people out and getting the job done in that time to a 4.2 ERA which isn’t bad and once he figured out how to not walk so many and pitch to contact every once in a while the numbers got progressively better.
Here’s another question, assuming that you have a budget (which the Yanks do) would you rather sign Chapman at $15 million guaranteed or 15 $1 million signability cases? Guys like Black and Betances come along with a decent level of regularity.
I would much rather have Chapman than 15 pitcher who will never make it past Scranton…
You want to bet that 3rd rounder Zach McAllister ($348,000 bonus) doesn’t make it past AAA?
How about Brandon Webb (8th round draft pick)
There are countless others.
It is very hard to tell which youngsters will be great and which will be busts.
Just ask Brien Taylor.
Albert Pujols was a 13th round draft pick…
McAllister actually will make it past triple A and probably will get a chance to start a game at some point this year…
You never know who will develop and who won’t but you have to take a chance everyonce in a while or you will never have anyone with a talent level to develop…
Did the Yankees know for sure that Montero would develop when they gave a 16-17 year old boy a 1.6 million dollar contract? No they didn’t but they took the chance, this is like that only he is more experienced than Montero and can make it to the majors much sooner than Jesus could.
Everything is a risk it’s just calculated risk…
I agree but there is a big difference between $1.6 million and $15 million.
You can get 10 Monteros for 1 Chapman.
If you know of 10 Montero’s sign them up…
the point is super prospects like this only come along every once in a while, how many 17 year old kids are blasting balls like Montero was? Very few so it was worth the risk…. How many left handed 21 year old pitchers are out there with 100 MPH fastball and the makings of a devastating slider? None right now and we have no potential “ace” in our system. The reward is worth the risk, this isn’t a Giambi contract we can’t get out from under where the guy is making 20 million a year and not producing… Worst case scenario he can’t develop a change and you focus on the slider and mechanics and make him a setup man or closer… HE would cost a lot for that but for a worst case scenario it isn’t a bad last resort.
I don’t think that you can assume that there are 10 Montero’s out there. If we assume that the team spends its budget on the best player available, then each of the succeeding 10 Montero’s is worse than the previous.
Spending it on IFAs and signability guys would also yield results in the longer term than Chapman, who would probably be ready in a year or two.
I don’t think that there are 10 Montero’s each year. But this is a signing where you spread out the dollars over 4-5 years. There are 2-3 high upside Latins each year, on average. The Yanks seem to be spending $3-5 million on International signings each year. You could halve that if you spend $3 million a year on Chapman over the next 5 years.
I guess that I think that this fascination with a single statistic, FB top-out is misguided.
There are a ton of players with great top-out FB speed that I’d pay $15 million NOT to have on my team. Farnsworth is only the first that comes to mind. Heck there are lots guys who SIT at 95 that are borderline useful relievers. The Yanks are considering cutting one of them right now (Bruney).
The Yanks have the guy with arguably the best pure stuff in the game already on their staff and I have to make a special order of TUMS from the pharmacy every time he pitches (AJ).
The guys who are aces: the Sabathias, the Greinkes, the Halliday’s, the Lincecums. They have good fastballs but they can control them and have at least 1 plus secondary pitch. 90% of the guys with the top end speed never get those 2 things.
It’s fun to fantasize about Chapman brushing back Youklis at 102 in Fenway but the cold reality is I’d rather see a guy who sits at 93 with great control and a killer curve than a guy who can’t control a 102 mph fastball.
You are comparing him to relievers and right handed pitchers it’s not the same!
If Chapman were right handed no one would even be wasting there time talking about him this much, he wouldn’t get anymore than 10 million at most and he wouldn’t be considered the best pitcher besides Yu not in the MLB.
The fact he is left handed makes him special… His fastball is at Randy Johnson’s level and Randy didn’t get it going until he was 29, a full 8 years younger than Johnson… How you can’t be excited about a guy like that I don’t know… At 20-25 he is more than worth the risk and the Yankees would be stupid to let someone else get his potential.
You are trying to compare a 21 year old kid who has never been in the majors to CC Sabathia at 29? Halladay at 32? and Lincecum after 2 consecutive Cy Youngs?
His control will improve… Once they get his mechanics down the rest will come, I can’t believe you are trying to compare this kid to the greats now as a reason not to sign him…. When CC came up he was a 2 pitch pitcher with great velocity and less than great control but over the last 7 years he has developed into an ace.
Randy Johnson’s walk totals
1990- 120 walks
1991- 152 walks
1992- 144 walks
1993- 99 walks
1994- 72 walks
Would you have paid 15 million not to have Randy Johnson on your team? Because with you attitude you would have given up on him and today he has 300+ wins and is one of the greatest 2 lefties ever to play the game.
I would not have paid $15 million to have Randy on my team for the first 6 years of his career and that is what the Yanks will get with Chapman.
Randy Johnson had a 4.32 ERA in his first 6 years with a total of 707 Ks in 766 innings, you wouldn’t take that for Chapman’s first 6 years? He would be 27 at the end of that time and coming into his prime as Randy did and only getting better from there… A 4.32 for a 6’10 left hander who had mechanical problems isn’t bad and Chapman is 6’4 and has less wingspan to deal with in his mechanics.
I don’t think that is bad it’s just not worth that much.
My point is that it could take a while for Chapman to improve his control an dhe might never get enough control to be an ace.
That is true but it is worth the risk when you consider what a guy like that can become… I’m not saying he is Randy Johnson but if it took Randy that long to develop and he won 300 games Chapman could be a very decent not hall of fame pitcher and it would be worth 15-20 million… If you can get in on the ground floor of a 60-70 million dollar pitcher for 25-30 isn’t it worth the risk?
It is certain that his control will either improve or not improve. It did not improve in the last 2y years of his time in Cuba. Some pitchers just never get great control (Farnsy and AJ, for example).
It is certain it will improve or not improve? Really! Tomorrow it will definitely rain or it won’t….
Actually his numbers did improve…
2005-2006 54 IP and 54 BBs
2006-2007 81 IP and 50 BBs
2007-2008 74 IP and 37 BBs
2008-2009 118 IP and 62 BBs
So you see his walks per inning actually did slightly improve until he went over the 100 innings pitch mark for the first time in his career which can easily more than explain his minor setback in his walk totals…. For a kid who started baseball when he was 17-18 years old he has developed at a level one would expect from the type of competition he was facing and the lack of any real training facilities that would meet ML expectations and with no real abiltity to control his own future and therefore his mental state was probably never fully at ease, especially while contemplating escaping his country for the US and the MLB.
Or you could say that he hit a plateau. The numbers support that conclusion.
A plateau? How do the numbers support that? He improved every year and had a minor setback in some areas when his work load went over 100 IP for the first time, numbers almost always support the year the player goes over the century and 200 IP mark they experience arm fatigue and reduced velocity at the end of that year.
The kid is 21 I highly doubt he has reached anywhere near his plateau.
And to be fair, his BB/9 went from putrid to merely awful and stayed there.
His walks per 9 improved what else do you want? They improved every year showing he has an abiltity to get better with each passing year.
The walks per 9 did not improve between 2008 and 2009.
The point in talking about the aces, which I thought was pretty clear, was that top-out fastball speed is not enough. You need a secondary pitch and control.
He is 21 and developing, CC didn’t have a changeup when he came up and he had a so-so slider but the pitch he relied on most of the time was his plus fastball until he developed as a pitcher… No one just comes up as a perfect player it takes development, what you are asking of him is impossible.
He has flashed signs of plus slider better than Joba’s at times and working with his mechanics should help even out his slider and give it a more consistent break… What do you want? CC Sabathia in a 21 year old defecting Cuban? All you can ask for his potential and a wiliness to learn and having natural talents. He has 2 of 3 if he wants to be great as he says he has a shot to make it, that’s all you ever have.
Noel Arguelles is a year younger and supposedly has a lot better control despite the same circumstances as Chapman.
Of course he has a shot. The question is how much is he worth given the probability of him making it and the upside.
My point is that he has a long way to go and his chances of being an ace are pretty slim.
King Felix, a super-stud prospect, got a $710,000 bonus. All of this talk of Chapman being worth $30 million is silly in my opinion. The risks are too great.
20-30 million isn’t silly for a 6 year contract on someone with that much potential… Montero got a bigger contract than Felix Hernandez and by over 300,000 dollars, Felix is an ace pitcher and had more of a guarantee than a power hitting 18 year old kid… Felix also signed at a much younger age than Chapman meaning he was much farther away from the bigs and he hadn’t even fully developed his body yet.
Noel Arguelles isn’t rated near the prospect as Chapman being a year younger and his only interest from major league clubs is the Rays and Rangers… That should tell you something.
Noel Arguelles also has a fastball that sits 88-91 MPH with a slider and a changeup… That is no where close to comparable… He can’t get by on pure stuff so if he didn’t have control he wouldn’t be anything, being a left is probably the only reason he gets away with his main 2 pitches being an 88-91 MPH fastball and a slider.
To compare Noel Arguelles to Chapman is like comparing Randy Johnson to Andy Pettitte, Andy is good but he never was Johnson and no matter how good his control was he could never be as talented.
You said “What do you want? ”
My point is that 21 year olds can learn control.
I’ve read that Noel sits in the low 90s. He was lower earlier when he hadn’t pitched in a while.
I agree completely. Sean Henn had a 100 mph fastball before going down with TJS.
Thank the gods someone around here doesn’t think; having a fastball no one can hit (but can’t control) is a sure bet to be very good. Without C&C of the FB and another pitch to go with it…you are nothing but a could have been.
In other words, sign him (if we can) but don’t think he will be another 300 game winner. We can only project, we can’t make things go the way we want them to. If the talent is there and he doesn’t get hurt????
We have other pitchers (that some think are out of the picture to go anywhere) that may yet turn out to be even better then him. Don’t forget Mo had TJ in the minors, he turned out ok…so have many others, so let’s not forget about the guys we already have.
If he is that good…go get him Cash!
Did I ever say he would Randy Johnson? No I didn’t! I said Randy didn’t figure it out until he was 29 and became a 300 game winner so to dismiss Chapman because his control isn’t great at 21 is stupid!
To say Chapman has no future because he has bad control is just as dumb as saying he is a HOFer just because he has a good fastball…
If you watch the small sample size of tape on the internet you see a flucuating fastball and a very raw slider but at times he has flashed a slider better than Chamberlain’s… It’s not consistent at all but he has shown flashes of his 2nd pitch and if CC went from a 2 pitch pitcher (Fastball and slider) and was able to add a changeup it’s not out of the question that Chapman can too. It’s no guarantee but he potential and at 15-25 million total for 6 years it’s a no brainer with what he could turn into and if he doesn’t pan out he is one of a 100 others who didn’t but it was at least worth a try.
If the Yankees scout like what they see I am all for signing him…
I fully believe once he gets with some real pitching coaches and has the chance to straighten out his mechanics you will see a lot less velocity fluctuation and his slider will be more consistent… I also have read where he claims to throw a 2-seam fastball as well which may explain why sometimes it dips to 90 instead of fluctuating in the high 90′s all the time.
My big issue is not so much the reported variation in FB velocity but the fact that he walked 4.5 per 9 in 2008 and 4.7 in 2009 as a 20 year old.
Those numbers indicate poor control and moreso, you’d like to see improvement in control over time. Cuba’s level of competition is not great because they have talent dilution but they do have decent coaching.
At that age in a weak talent league, he should be blowing people away with his fastball, not walking a player every other inning.
I imagine he is sacrificing walks to get more strikeouts and he also has a very inconsistent slider which is also because of his lack of mechanical command… He may not be facing top level competition but he isn’t being trained or taught or worked out at the top level either, it all matters when judging someone don’t just think about one side of it… With better coaching, training and facilities you should see leaps and bounds of improvement he’s only 21 years old I think there is still time for development… People just want a finished product from a kid and it’s not going to happen.
Let me ask you this, say he becomes a harder throwing (than right now) AJ Burnett from the left side, is that not worth 8 million a year? The Yankees signed Burnett to his deal at 31 do you not think a developing AJ from the left side isn’t worth something? Good fastball, develops an offspeed pitch and uses a power change he never really gets a feel for, walks batters but stays at the top of the strikeout list and is a solid no. 2 starter.
I think that right now his control makes AJ look like Greg Maddux.
AJ is not only fast but has nasty movement on his pitches.
And he has nasty secondary stuff, which Chapman does not.
Again you are comparing a finished product to a 21 year old kid who hasn’t developed yet or even spent a single year in the minors… Cuban baseball officials pull kids when they are getting to good and don’t let them play as much anymore internationally for fear they will leave, they never want them to develop to their full potential.
Do you not understand AJ is 32 Chapman is 21…
The point is that his control is pretty bad at this point. It could improve to where he becomes an ace.. It could not, hence the big risk.
That is the same with everyone ever in any sport… JaMarcus Russell in the NFL can throw 80 yards on one knee and he busted but you have to take the chance because of the talent level that is the point.
No – you don’t have to take the chance. You only take it if you think it is a good bet.
If you knew what you were talking about you’d be dangerous.SANDY Koufax went to the U of cincinatti as a Basketball player and played mostly first base for them in the spring and fall.HE could throw hard, very hard and Dodgers made him a BONUS BABY to get him to sign.In those days a Bonus baby was not allowed to be sent down to the minors at all, because owners didn’t want to pay big bonuses so they punished each other and made bonus babies stay on the major league roster.Though Jackie Robinson had broken the barriers, many Black players of the mid 50′s will tell you that racism still was rampant all over baseball.Guess what? So was anti-semitism.
Though Koufax has rarely alluded to it, that’s just WHO he is, not a complainer, when he came up and threw some huge games from the standpoint of strikeouts both in Spring training and I believe in the majors, he received almost no coaching year after year and heard comments like, “He’s too wild, why isn’t he a Dr. or lawyer?
It wasn’t until Norm Sherry, a Jewish career minor leaguer catcher and brother of 1959 WS MVP LARRY Sherry was brought up be the Dodgers 3rd string catcher and taught kOUFAX, both a delivery he could repeat and a change-up that Koufax got any real coaching and then the things he did were pretty amazing.He pretty much dominated the National league for 5 years, set the all-time strikeout record, pitched 4 no hitters in 4 years, dominated 2 WS and by in large had zero hitting support and bad fielding behind him.One year, I believe 66, Don Drysdale was the teams best hitter, highest average and the most HR’s were from 2nd baseman Lefebrve, I think 22 and they beat teams with monster hitters and pitching staffs in the superior National League.
I rember one season Dodgers needed to beat Phillies 2 out of 3 and Sandy won either Thursday or Friday night and had to come back Sunday to clinch it and pitched a shutout.
Team came first and he pitched injured constantly and took cortisone shots in his elbow until finally
at age 29 he announced his retirement after winning I believe 26 games that year.
He never threw at batters unlike the head hunters of that day like Drysdale & Gibson who got guys out with stuff and intimidation and most players of that period will tell you Sandy was the toughest pitcher they ever faced.
I don’t believe that compiled stats makes a hof’ER, GREATNESS AND DOMINANCE DOES.nOT 1 YEAR GREATNESS BUT WHEN YOU’RE THE MOST DOMINANT PLAYER OF YOUR DAY YOU HAVE A GOOD ARGUMENT TO BE THERE.
I remember him very well, the last two years he used some combination of horse liniment and something else on his arm…it was so hot and smelly that players didn’t believe anyone could use it, and play. I know about the Bonus Baby rule also…Detroit had the option on Jim Bunning…and past?!@#?!
You are right, he dominated his last five or six years but, the HoF voters are always saying; “It’s the whole career, not a small portion.” Of course, it’s always about whom ever they like or don’t.
Being a Yankee fan…I hated him and Don Drysdale (saw both of them) when the yanks played them in the WS.
Remember, back then the mound was higher and those two guys could bring it very hard. Also, Sandy was a Jewish Orthodox…which meant, he didn’t pitch on Saturdays, many people didn’t know anything about it.
I was trying to show how both Chapman and Sandy started out with not much more then a hard fastball and wildness, it took Sandy time (and coaching) to be what he became…why not the same with Chapman?
His HoF vote is a matter of opinion, I would have him on my team anytime…he was one of the great ones, he just had a short (5/6 yrs) great span of time.
No it’s Joba’s problem as well… Joba’s first year in college he walked 33 batters in over 100 IP with a 9.9 K/9 rate but the following year he walked 34 batters in 89 innings and his K/9 rate went up to 10 K/9… It’s all related, it’s one of the reason Hughes ended up walking guys in the playoffs and it is one reason Joba always has a high pitch count. You can not always go for strikeouts, it runs up your pitch counts and makes you walk batters. The higher the K/9 goes up the more the BB/9 goes up…
The point with the comparison to Chamberlain which you missed is that while Chapman walked less per 9 each year Joba walked more, while Chapman took his K/9 down Joba’s went up, Joba was regressing while Chapman was developing.
So you are saying you wouldn’t sign him to a 5-6 year 20-30 million dollar deal?
If you wouldn’t I think that is a huge mistake in personnel, you scout and sign the best players you can and Chapman has “potential” to match almost any prospect you can find stuff wise… He has a fastball that he can hit 100 on more than a 1 time basis and he has shown flashes of a slider better with more across the zone bite than Chamberlain, he can get by with that while developing his changeup and be plenty good… if he can post an under 5 ERA for his first 3 or 4 years he is an asset, you can win games with that… Hell our “ace” in Wang won 19 games with a 4+ ERA you telling me Chapman can’t be a 4 or 5 starter in a year or two with a 4 ERA? He is young enough to have all the time he needs to develop and we have enough money for the contract to not actually hurt us if he doesn’t develop and if he comes close to his potential you are in on the ground floor of a 50 millon+ dollar pitcher for 20-30 million, and it’s not hard to be worth 50 million as a starting pitcher anymore these days, hell Lackey turned down 70+ million before this season and expects to get 80+ million from a team and he is 31 and at best a number 2 pitcher… Chapman being left handed just has to sport a decent ERA with his K numbers to e worth 50 million and if you have him signed in at 20 you made a great investment.
I don’t have enough information to know if he should be signed and at what price. What I have read makes him interesting to discuss. The control issue is a huge red flag.
When Contreras came up, he had been dominating in Cuba with an under 2 ERA. He had good stuff and was used to just throwing it over and getting strikeouts. Players in Cuba could not hit him simply because of stuff.
He came to the US, threw his stuff and major league hitters… well they hit him. Hard. It took him a few years to learn better control and to become effective.
My points are that
1) If Chapman walks that many people in Cuba, he really has poor control. I mean not that he doesn’t have the kind of pinpoint control that you need to be a major league ace. I mean that he can’t get the ball over the plate at times.
2) He might learn that kind of control but it is a very hard thing to do and most people (even most people with great arms) never learn it no matter how hard they try.
Now, if he has some simple mechanical flaw that the Yankees see that can easily be fixed which will dramatically improve his control then that lowers the risk of the signing.
In reality all of these postings saying pay this or that are sort of pointless. We simply have no idea what kind of shot this guy has of being a top of the order starter. I think that it is very clear that there is a lot of risk associated with this guy and vaporizing $15 million that could be spent elsewhere is not a slam dunk. The Yankees have a budget even if we all like to pretend that they don’t. George is no longer in charge, Hank is.
They have a budget sure but 8 million or less per year isn’t going to influence the 200 million dollar budget one way or the other.
What’s with all the writing becoming links?
Well yes it will – that is how a budget works.
200 million is how much the Yankees spend per year… Now they spent some 218 million this year even if they wanted to cut down to 200 million 8 million dollars wouldn’t be the sticking point in being able to do that… I understand how a budget works but you obviously don’t… bigger amounts of money affect the budget more than smaller amounts and the Yankees don’t worry about 8 million when Alex walked away with 30.
Koufax pitched on Saturday every week.You don’t know what you’re talking about.He missed 2 WS games on the Jewish High holidays, I ofrget what they’re called in 1966 but was not an observant jew.
I must admit, I was a DOdger fan in those days and Koufax was the greatest pitcher I’ve ever seen.nothing he couldn’t do and he could pitch a complete game on one day’s rest.
Just to be clear, Chapman’s BB/9 worsened between 2008 and 2009.
K/9 BB/9
2008 9.61 4.50
2009 9.89 4.72
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9382
No duh… Because 2009 was the first time his innings went over 100 in a single season… I already covered this…. His walk per 9 got progressively better every year until this last one when he went over the century mark in innings for the first time in his life and he increase his K/9 mark meaning he tried for more Ks as well.
So I decided to model this out using 5 scenarios.
1) 5% he becomes an ace like CC Sabathia over the last 3 years
2) 5% he becomes a #2 like AJ Burnett last year.
3) 10% he becomes a back end starter
4) 30% he becomes a decent reliever (think 2008 Brian Bruney over a full season)
5) 50% he’s a bust (injuries or just can’t learn control)
So I project that he plays 2 years in the minors and then 2 in the majors under his initial deal (assumed to be 4 years) and then a another year at $450,000 and then 3 more at salaries paid using arbitration.
This gets you a value of $16.8 million ($12.9 million accounting for the time value of money at 5%). He would yield a draft pick worth $4 million at the end of this if he left, which bump this to $20.7 million ($15.6 million at a 5% discount rate).
So basically, under these assumptions, he’s worth $15-$20 million.
there is nothing to back anything here up you just made up numbers…
Well no – at least the first 5% number is pretty solid as an assumption.
You just made up a bunch of numbers… None of that is stats or truth just your opinion.
So the big question here is what is the likelihood of scenario 1 (although the reliever values do account for 36% of the value in this scenario, the same as the ace scenario)?
Let’s assume that there are roughly 13 true aces in the game today and they each last 10 years. 11 of these are from the US (the exceptions being Santana and King Felix).
Over the last 2 years, there have been 13 starters, on average drafted in the first round. Let’s assume that these all had potential ace stuff. Remember, you don’t need a 95 mph heater to be an ace – Cliff Lee sits at 91 (and Maddux was a second rounder).
Of the 11 American aces, 7 were first round picks (Greinke, Halladay, Kershaw, Lincecum, Sabathia , Verlander and Wainwright) and 4 were not (Haren, Johnson, Lee and Lester). In order to keep the number of first round American aces constant at 7, over a 10 year period, we would draft 130 pitchers and need 7 to become aces (or 5.38%).
So my 5% guesstimate for scenario 1 is not crazy. Clearly we could argue and increase the 13 by a few, or decrease by it 1 or 2 but I think that 5% is in the range.
Also, please keep in mind that a lot of those 130 first round picks were much more advanced than Chapman is today in terms of their pitch control. Still, 95% of them did not become aces.
You just don’t get it do you…?
No one is saying he will become anything… No one ever knows who will be good and who won’t be good… Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick Mark McGuire was a first round pick it’s all educated guessing but with that you have to take risks and chance someone developing into the talent they have and that is what this is.
If you don’t get that you don’t get that…
So spend $50 million and pray? Actually, I’m pretty sure that the Yanks go through this kind of exercise when they determine how much to pay for players. The Rays have admitted that they do.
This is pretty much standard financial analysis.
Did I say 50 million? Your problem is you already assume what people are thinking and saying and you build your argument on your own imagination…
I never said pay him 50 million at most I think he should get 40 million over 5 or 6 years but I think his value right now falls more in line 5 years 25 million or so…. You won’t get him for 15 and 25 isn’t a bad compromise.
Exactly 21 year olds can learn control so if Chapman learns control he is better than the other guy will ever be because he has a fastball that reaches 100 not one that tops out at 92.
Well, 5% of them learn enough control to be aces, 95% don’t. If this is the risk for Chapman, the Yanks should pay around $15 million.
You take back your own statement because it proved you wrong?
you would rather get Noel Arguelles because he has better control but only throws 91 the likelihood he becomes an ace is almost 0% therefore he won’t see anywhere near the money that Chapman will and with Chapman’s potential as a starter and having the fall back to put him in the pen makes him more valuable as well.
Chapman is worth 25 million over 5 or 6 years you’ll never get him for 15 and he has the talent level to make that up on the field…. He doesn’t have to turn into an ace to be worth more than 15 million this is where you make you mistake, Lackey is a glorified number 2 starter and so is AJ Burnett and both are going to make 16 million next year alone, if Chapman is a half way decent 4 starter in his career he is worth 15 million over 5 year, if he becomes a number 3 or 2 pitcher than 25 million is a bargain.
…and because I believe he is a good bet you have to take the risk… Can you not connect dots?