[image title="austin_jackson_s" size="full" id="9315" align="center" ]You can bet that the Yankees have Austin Jackson on their mind when making decisions on Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and their potential replacements this off season. Austin Jackson has been a top Yankee prospect for at least three years now, and is on the verge of hitting the major leagues.
Of course, the two big questions for any prospect are: How good will he be, and when will be hit the majors?
How good is Austin Jackson?
There is a pretty big range of opinion on how good Austin Jackson could potentially be. Some see him as an above-average centerfielder, which plenty of flaws but enough natural athleticism to keep him in the lineup every day. Think about Shane Victorino. Some think that Jackson has the power potential to be similar to Curtis Granderson.
I believe that Jackson is much more of a Victorino than a Granderson. Take a look at his stat line since the second half of 2007:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 20 | Tampa | FLOR | A_adv | 67 | 258 | 53 | 89 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 22 | 48 | .345 | .398 | .566 | .964 |
| 2008 | 21 | Trenton | EL | AA | 131 | 520 | 75 | 148 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 69 | 19 | 6 | 56 | 113 | .285 | .354 | .419 | .773 |
| 2009 | 22 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | IL | AAA | 132 | 504 | 67 | 151 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 24 | 4 | 40 | 123 | .300 | .354 | .405 | .759 |
He hasn’t shown a lot of power before or after his 2007 half-season breakout. In fact, he has gradually become more a singles hitter as he has climbed the minor league ladder. This trend is a little bit disturbing, though by no means irreversible.
Austin Jackson has a problem: he strikes out too much. In a full season of play, Jackson will probably strike out around 140 times. This is where a lot of the Granderson comparisons come from. Unfortunately, Jackson hasn’t shown Granderson’s power hitting ability. He swings to the opposite field, much like Derek Jeter does, so his power ceiling is probably pretty low. On the other hand, it allows him to hit .300 despite the high strikeout rate.
I don’t think that we can expect Jackson to develop all that much power, though it is a possibility. It is more likely that Jackson settles into the 10-15 home runs per year range, with a decent number of doubles and triples. He’ll steal 20-30 bases too.
On defense, Jackson gets a bad rep. He is commonly referred to as a left field / center field candidate, as if he doesn’t have the range to handle center. Besides a handful of games in 2009 where he let Ramiro Pena learn the position, the Yankees have always used Jackson as a center fielder. While writers have complained about his poor routes to balls, they also always mentioned that his natural speed makes up for it. Austin Jackson is a superb athlete, and is a center fielder.
Jackson has one little-known trait that is important. He has an impeccable minor league health record. He has barely missed a game since his debut five years ago. Most minor league players miss time with minor issues, because teams are generally pretty conservative with minor league injuries. Jackson hasn’t raised a single warning flag for the Yankees. His 4.5 seasons in the minors seem longer because of this.
How soon will he be ready?
Most clubs would probably pencil Austin Jackson for a strong audition in spring training. The Yankees probably won’t be satisfied with a rookie as their Plan A. I’d be shocked to see him start the season in the majors, barring a spring training injury.
But honestly, why not? Melky Cabrera has some trade value, and is about to get a healthy raise. Cabrera is, at best, an average center fielder. Austin Jackson will be a better defender, and likely a better hitter. Brett Gardner is basically the same player, value-wise, as Cabrera. If I were Brian Cashman, I would explore a trade of Melky Cabrera for a back-end starting pitcher.
Jackson probably has little to learn in Triple-A. A full season is a long time, and by no means did he struggle while there. He might expect a little bit of improvement over time, but that improvement could also happen in the majors. There’s a pretty good chance that he’ll be better than either Melky or Gardner in 2010.
I guess my argument is basically this: right now, Melky is Plan A. Gardner is Plan B. Jackson is Plan C. Why not make Gardner Plan A and Jackson Plan B? Do we really need that much extra depth?
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59 Responses to How good is Austin Jackson?
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Granderson consistently showed much more pop as a prospect, as you stated.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Curtis-Granderson.shtml
can he hit righties? I don’t care that he doesn’t have Granderson’s power, if he isn’t an automatic out against righties like Curtis is against lefties, then he has value even if he isn’t hitting home runs
Well right now he is on track to strikeout like Granderson with much less pop, and while Granderson can hit a lot of doubles and triples right now Austin is a singles hitter…
In 2008 Granderson hit .259 against lefties (.280 overall) and while this isn’t the best of numbers it shows that he has hit them in the past, in 2007 Granderson hit .302 overall and only hit .160 against lefties, he has shown extreme potential and he has also shown some bad tendencies and some bad trends but believe he can be taught to be a complete enough hitter to play everyday and hit over .300 in our lineup. He shows the abiltity to walk some and has increased those totals over the past 3 years and if he can learn to stop trying to rely on the HR you should see both his average and OBP go up against both righties and lefties.
Granderson has never put all his skills together he hits .259 against left handed pitchers in 08 and only .280 overall while in 07 he hits .160 against lefties yet still hit .302 overall… If he can manage to put his abilities at the plate together and he hits .259 against lefties while cutting down on the HR swings you could see a guy who hits well over .300 every year with 25-30 HR power every year especially in this park.
With that said I like Austin Jackson a lot and there are only a few packages in which I would want to trade him in, one of those would be for BJ Upton, another would be in any deal for Felix Hernandez (dreams) and I would have to consider it for a long time in a deal for Granderson. As I have stated above Granderson who is still only 28 at the current moment has tons of yet untapped talent and could be a star in NY with the Yankees playing CF but Austin has a lot of untapped abiltity himself and is even younger than Granderson but you don’t know what you will get at all. With Granderson at worse you know you have someone who can hit 30 HRs a year in the 6-8 part of your lineup but at best you could have a superstar hitting in the 2-5 range hitter over .300 with 25+ HRs and doubles every year and 10 triples on top of that. With Austin at best you have a very good CFer who can hit and he mans the position for the next 10 years at worst he never catches on in the MLB and ends up a bench guy or something. Tough call!
that’s just 2008. for his entire career (2008 included) he hits .210 with a .614 OPS against southpaws. That’s worse than Ryan Howard, the poster child for “he can’t hit lefties”. For reference, Jose Molina for his career is a .235 hitter with a .609 OPS. That is such a stark split (Jorge Posada 2009 against righties, Jose Molina against lefties) that I can’t see Granderson as anything more than a platoon player, power or not. $5.5M for 2010, $8.25M for 2011, $10M for 2012 plus prospects is simply too much to pay for a guy like that.
You can’t ignore 2008 it did happen and only a year ago, if he lays off the love of the power stroke you should an increase in Avg for both handed pitchers and if he works with Kevin Long I don’t see any reason he can’t at least hit .230 against left handed hitters. The guy has been an everyday player I don’t see that changing and we don’t know the kind of prospects involved, if the Yankees think they can make his hitting against lefties go closer to 2008 I think they would be more than willing to make the deal, I’m sure their scouts will have something to say about it.
Let me reiterate this one thing however… I think Granderson is a luxury to acquire so I’m not pushing for him that hard I will let the Yankees make there scouting decision and go along with what they choose on this one.
I am still very much in favor of 1 of the 2 ideas involving Mike Cameron…
a.) Sign Mike and let him play CF with Melky in LF
b.) Sign Mike and let him play LF with Gardner in CF
Obviously Cameron can play both position very well even at this age and was one of the better defensive CFers in the NL last year being worth a UZR rating of 10. As to which position he plays depends on who does better in spring between Melky and Gardner, either on strengthens the bench but Melky gives you a big arm in LF which would be best for the outfields D…
Melky-Cameron-Swisher would catch a lot of balls and take away a lot of runs from the amount we gave up in the outfield last year, with Melky in LF and Cameron in CF we also slow down to oppositions base running abiltity which was one of our biggest weaknesses this year in the outfield we allowed people to go 1st to 3rd and to score from 2nd way to often this year!
Either way Cameron is a max 2 year deal (probably 1 year) and will cost less than 10 million a year (he made 10 this year in the last year of a deal that saw him make 7 the 3 previous years) and will bring with him 20+ HRs and defense that will upgrade any spot in the outfield he plays making him the perfect stop gap for Austin Jackson and it will allow us to decide what to do with the trio of Gardner, Melky and Jackson and decide which one gets traded and which one goes to the bench and who if the future and at what position. Win win for the whole team!
I 100% agree on Cameron. As for Granderson, the more I look at his numbers, the more convinced I am that he is not worth acquiring.
and I’m not ignoring 2008, I’m choosing a bigger sample with 2008 in there–my point is 2008 was an outlier
Granderson definitely has some holes that worry me but the larger sample size you are going off of is really on 2 years or so… 2006 he hit .218 in only 147 ABs against left handed pitching and in 2005 he hit .320 against left handed pitching in only 25 ABs so you only have 1 full season where he hit better than .240 against left handed batting and only 2 seasons where he hit under .200 against left handed pitching. All I am saying is the sample size either way isn’t huge and it’s too early to close to book on Granderson.
If he cuts back on his love of the long ball and tries to play within himself I think you could someone who could at least handle left handed pitching in .230-.250 range and hit .300 overall with 25+ HR power, if he can do that he is worth playing in LF or CF whichever one ends up working out better in the long term. You could even play Cameron in CF with Granderson in LF to help his D out.
There are risks with Granderson I give you but I am not sure if a beter option is out there (Kemp isn’t going anywhere) and I am not sure what you can really expect from Cabrera/Gardner as everyday players they are really more of a 2 man platoon and Austin hasn’t proven he can come in and take over the on any kind of long term basis yet. Cameron really is the smartest move for CF for now but he doesn’t address the position past 1 year 2 at the max.
I think he will get more extra base hits when he matures. I also think he got worn down this season.
While true you still don’t know how much more he will get and if those extra base hits come but don’t turn into HRs at some point his strikeout rate really drags his value down because he becomes an in the park hitter with strikeout problems instead of a power hitter who strikes out.
I think Austin has the chance to hit 20 HRs a year but he has a long way to go to get to that point and he may never reach that potential, at least with someone like Granderson you know he can at least hit for power.
The Melky trade idea isn’t a bad one, Melky has some more value than he has had in a while and right now it looks like he may be still developing his bat which may bring some potential but I think this is all a little cluttered with the Granderson stuff. One sort of effects the other one when you consider that Jackson is probably involved in any deal that lands Curtis and in that case it probably moves Melky to starting in LF.
Me personally I like both ideas enough that I would look into trading for Granderson as long as the Tigers demands aren’t to great and then I would sign Cameron to play LF for 1 year (maybe a 2nd year option) and then use the flexibility of Granderson and Cameron in the outfield (both can play CF and LF better than what we had this year) to trade Melky for an 8th inning reliever who can be the guaranteed setup man or a back end starter.
Cameron-Granderson-Swisher with you 4th outfielder/pinch runner Brett Gardner…
Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn and Jayson Werth are all free agents after next season and anyone of them can take over in LF for Cameron if you only want to keep Mike around for the 1 year, and Granderson will be the CFer for the foreseeable future. You could even sign Dunn to be the DH and sign Werth to play RF and move Swisher to LF.
Swisher-Granderson-Werth
DH/LF- Dunn
Or at that point you make a trade for a young LFer or Gardner can start in LF if you feel he has matured into an everyday player.
I would not be afraid to use AJax in a trade.I do think he’ll hit ofr more power eventually.
Tell you what, striking out 140 times and still hitting around .300 is an accomplishment in itself.
He could still get over the top, especially if he goes to a more Jeter-esque swing in Yankee stadium.
He has the power to hit HR’s, I saw that in spring training when he pulverized a ball for a very long dinger.
Better approach, Yankee Stadium and he could still work out.
Like I said though, I wouldn’t mind putting him in a deal.Better than signing an expensive free agent and giving up a draft pick who probably would have as much potential as AJax.
The deal has to be the right deal though, as you said his power should increase not to a Granderson level I don’t think but 20-25 HRs isn’t unreachable for a guy like Jackson… What deal though? I am not sure if other clubs value Jackson as much as the Yankees do so because of that I am not sure the availability of trades with Jackson as the main piece of the puzzle. If the reports are true that the Mariners wanted Jackson for Washburn then they can’t have thought of him to highly because Washburn isn’t exactly a spring chicken or someone with much potential other than a 4th or 5th starter.
I read an article today which had people from the Rays organization saying that BJ Upton would be available for the price and that it would also depend on the long term status or lack there of from Carl Crawford… I personally believe if they trade Upton it will be to lock up Crawford long term so it could be a real possibility that he is available. If so I say we buy low and stick the kid in CF and bat him 8th or 9th and let him develop into the star he can become…
BJ has the abiltity to win a gold glove in CF every year (something Granderson can’t do) and he has the abiltity to swing for 20+ HRs a year while stealing 40+ bases a year so he could be more valuable at a younger age than Curtis Granderson is… I would think that the Rays would want Jackson to start with and they have major holes in their bullpen and they are looking for a catcher to replace Dioner behind the plate so they might be interested in Austin Romine as well, I doubt they have much interest in starting pitchers like McAllister or Nova and I really doubt the Yankees would trade Hughes/Joba for a CFer and especially not in division so who would it be for?
BJ has a lot of potential but is at the bottom of that potential as of last season, obviously the injury had something to do with it and I think the Rays abused him all year long having him hit so high up in the order, it over exposed him to soon, he should have been hitting in the middle of the order so he could take advantage of his power and not be focused on leading off and getting on for the number 2 hitter.
A. Jackson, D.Robertson, Higashioka and Kevin Russo for BJ Upton?
They get a CF replacement for BJ, a bullpen piece they can plug in the back of their pen, a possible future C and a 2nd baseman who is offensive minded and could play 2B for them if they decide to move Zobrist to the outfield due to injury or something. It truthfully is probably not enough, Jackson and Robertson carry a lot of value but I don’t know how much value Higashioka or Russo actually carry, they could be trade pieces for sure but I don’t know if they carry enough wait for this one to work out.
A. Jackson, Grant Duff, B. Laird and Romulo Sanchez for BJ?
Laird and Jackson are really the prizes for them in this trade and Duff we probably lose in the Rule V anyway so why not throw him in and Sanchez did pretty well for us but I am not sure how much value he carries in the trade market.
Upton definitely had a down year last year, but he is a premier young player in this league. Austin Jackson is a sub-elite prospect. David Robertson is a solid bullpen arm. Laird’s great Fall doesn’t suddenly make him an elite prospect, and Higashioka OPSed sub-.700 in rookie ball. Russo is a twenty-five year old singles hitter with zero pop and average speed. Romulo Sanchez wasn’t exactly setting AAA on fire. If you want Tampa to even pick up that phone the first word out of your mouth is Joba, Hughes or Montero and the second, if you’re lucky, is AJack.
HAHAHA… Montero, Hughes or Joba? Joba has little to no trade value as a starter or reliever right now and Hughes is seen more as reliever to the rest of the league than a starter right and Montero by himself would get you more than BJ Upton so I don’t know exactly what you are talking about.
I pointed out all the flaws in the trades I proposed and I know all the players very well, I was just showcasing some players you could use…
You could make a package revolving Austin Jackson it wouldn’t be that hard…. If you really wanted to make the deal you could just give them A. Jackson, Z. McAllister, A Romine and Robertson…
Hell Montero, Joba or Hughes straight up for BJ Upton would be laughed at by the Yankees after how terrible a year BJ had and you may be missing the fact that the Rays have to trade him if they want to keep Crawford and on top of that it’s like Kazmir, they can’t afford to have a player around making money who isn’t performing right away. They can’t keep him around if he is under performing all the time.
You are one of the people who over value other people’s players and think you have to blow the bank to make trades… Top prospects like Joba, Hughes and especially Montero aren’t getting traded in this climent and haven’t for a while. Look at what The Phillies gave up for Lee, nothing and Lee is the ace of the Phillies and was the ace of the Indians.
You could even put together a deal involving A. Jackson, H Noesi, A Romine and Laird.
That’s just silliness. He is a premier young player in the league, one crappy year at the plate doesn’t change that. The idea that we can throw B prospects at cost-controlled young talent and expect a GM not to laugh at us is nonsense. It’s a roto league attitude. A number of those guys hold promise, no doubt, but the four most tradeable commodities we have are Cano, Joba, Hughes and Montero and it’s going to take at least one of them to get back a Gold Glove CFer who hasn’t hit his 26th birthday yet. If we don’t offer one someone else will.
Premier player? That is a little lofty right now don’t you think? HE has hit above .271 in his career once in total, he has hit more than 11 HRs once in total and in fact he has only even had 1 good year!
2004- .258 Avg, 4 HRs, 12 RBI
2006- .246 Avg, 1 HRs, 10 RBI
2007- .300 Avg, 24 HRs, 82 RBI
2008- .273 Avg, 8 HRs, 67 RBI
2009- .241 Avg, 11 HRs, 55 RBI
Yes he has a lot of talent but I can’t call him a premier player yet because he only has 1 good year in his whole career, so instead of “one crappy year at the plate doesn’t change that” you should change that to “only 1 good year proves that” because he has never had multiple years prove him to be an elite player.
Austin Jackson would be who the deal revolves around and Austin Romine is much more than than a “B” level prospect and in fact he is one of our highest rated prospects.
You don’t have to give them nothing but to assume Joba, Hughes or Montero is involved for a CF who has never even had more than 1 good year and every other one before or after it was mediocre or less than mediocre… His D even slipped this year to the point people were questioning whether he is lazy ot not and a lot of what you hear out of the Rays would say he is.
Montero is on a level way above BJ…
A. Jackson, A. Romine, Z. McAllister and D. Robertson would be able to come close if not get the deal done.
They want a catcher long term and Romine is a great catching prospect, they have bullpen problems and Robertson really showed up in big jams in the postseason raising his value for trades while Jackson is the replacement for BJ and McAllister is the throw in and it allows the Rays to trade 1 player they won’t end up re-signing anyway and allow them to save money for Crawford and fill some positions of need.
Let me put it this way The Yankees (nor I for that matter) wouldn’t trade Montero for BJ Upton straight up if the places were reversed and the Rays were calling us for Montero… Jesus is on a whole new level that BJ as a prospect never reached and BJ’s potential up to this point isn’t equal to that of Montero’s… So how then are you going to tell me it would take Jesus Montero + Austin Jackson + prospects?
I also doubt you will find to many people that call BJ Upton a premier player or elite player when he has only ever had 1 good season and that season wasn’t blowing me away to be honest… His brother is a better player with way more Value than BJ so don’t rate BJ as the best CFer in the league, he has talent to reach that level but right now he is under preforming on D and O.
Montero hasn’t stepped into a AAA batter’s box yet. A young, cost-controlled five-tool who has already played in his first All Star game is understandably more valuable. That’s not to say that Montero’s upside isn’t as high or higher than Upton’s, certainly it is, just to say there’s a huge difference in value between a top prospect and a young stud, especially when Montero’s defensive abilities are questionable.
Yeah Romine’s a good prospect, one of the better-rounded catchers in the minors. He’s also in High A. McAllister is a decent pitching prospect. He’s also considered back-of-the-rotation. And Robertson is a solid bullpen arm. If Jackson is your elite prospect, a designation a lot of people seem to be questioning after a good but not great AAA year, that’s not a great package. We seem to forget that with the exception of Robertson these are all prospects, and outside of the top twenty-five or so prospects fail more often than they succeed. Upton is, at minimum, a sterling defensive CF who gets you forty steals and, at max, a 20+ HR guy who is patient, hits for average, and still gets you forty steals and Gold Glove caliber defense. It’s going to take an elite prospect to land him.
B.J. Upton actually slightly improved this year. He was the 4th best defensive centerfielder last year and came in at 3rd this year. UZR of 11.1 and 11.8 the last couple of years.
Hughes and Joba have more trade value around the league than any of the other players you named (other than Montero, of course).
Well of course they have more value than guys that are nobodies in the system but the point I am making is that Joba especially is at the lowest point of value he has ever been since before the draft therefore the Yankees won’t trade him because it would be retarded to since you couldn’t get full value for him.
I am not saying you can’t trade Joba and Hughes right now I am saying because of their low trade value in relationship to the talent they have you will only lose out if you trade one of them now, the only thing to do is wait and see because right now trading either one is selling when low and not when high.
LOL @ Joba has little to no trade value… that’s almost as funny as Hector Noesi having trade value. I’m also sure all the other teams would like to see if Hughes can work for them as a starter.
You really don’t seem to understand do you?
I’m not saying you can’t trade Joba, you can trade anyone you want if you are willing to take little enough… That’s not my point! Joba is at an all time low with his trade value… That’s just how it works, you come off of a bad year in which you didn’t go past 4 innings often enough to be full fledged starter in the eyes of scouts so your trade value goes down.
When I say he has little to no trade value I mean on the grand scale of things, you couldn’t offer Joba to the Jay for Halladay and have them wetting their pants to get a hold of him, Joba would just be another piece of a trade right now not the main focus as he would have been a year ago when he was “untouchable”.
YOU CAN NOT TRADE JOBA RIGHT NOW AND GET FAIR VALUE FOR HIS POTENTIAL!
This is basically what I am saying when I say he has little to no value right now… You could trade him for less than his talent says he is worth but why would you do that? You have to keep him and let him prove he is a full starter and let his talent develop there is nothing to gain by trading him now.
Basically the same goes for Hughes! You could trade Hughes right now but he has proven he is effective as a regular season setup man but he has yet to prove he can be a starter for a full year in the major leagues until he does that it worthless to trade him either because you probably won’t get what is fair in return for the talent level of a guy like Hughes.
Maybe this will put it better….
“Joba’s trade value, while still good because of a raw ability, is at an all-time low right now. The only reason to deal him now is if you’re confident his value will drop further still in the near future.”.
~Larry Barnes
Now I expect Joba’s value to rise so therefor there is no reason to trade him because he doesn’t have the value to get a fair deal in return…
I am honestly not sure Melky has much trade value right now. He’s hitting his second year of arbitration and stands to actually make real money at this point. He’s the type of guy who is valuable when you’re not paying him much, but isn’t worth much once he’s in arbitration. I don’t think you’d be able to net much at all for Melky right now.
Also, I know you don’t mean it this way, but this profile seems to suggest that Shane Victorino is a likely outcome for Austin Jackson. I think that’s more like a ceiling for him. Victorino is a damn good player.
Melky still has trade value because he is young and still under team control playing a premiere position in the MLB, as long as he is under team control he has value especially now that his bat is developing… It’s not like Melky will win huge arbitration hearings for big money, this isn’t Ryan Howard at most he would get a 20% raise maybe.
If you actually think BJ Upton has more value than Montero in a trade then I don’t know what to say… Who cars if Montero has never stepped into a Scranton box… The guy has the abiltity to hit at the major league level right now and he is only 19 years old, he is one of the highest touted power hitting prospects in years! Montero has more trade value than anyone in our system and if the Rays asked for Montero for BJ straight up the Yankees would laugh at them!
BJ has barley played well in his time in the majors and Montero is projected to hit 40+ HRs a year at the major league level and he isn’t even 20 years old yet… Montero > Upton and the Yankees wouldn’t trade Montero straight up for BJ…!
BJ has never played Gold Glove defense and his defense in CF was barley any better than Mike Cameron’s D in CF this year which is solid but not gold glove caliber and that is the difference in 10+ years (in age) and Cameron actually had a higher RngR rating which means he was better at getting balls hit into his zone that BJ was this year! So he was the better CFer when it comes to balls hit to CF and he is 36 compared to 25.
BJ Upton has had 1 year where he proved he can hit 20 HRs and where he proved he can hit over .270… Also BJ would never steal 40 bags for us because he would be hitting in the 7-9 range for a while to come and wouldn’t have the chance to steal more than 20-25 bases at the most.
For most of his career he has proved he can only hit .240-.260…. BJ Upton also struck out 152 times last year which is 11 more than Granderson did last year, BJ also struck out 154 times in 2007 his best statistical year of his career and he still only hit 24 HRs that year. In fact in the last 3 years combined BJ has struck out a total of 440 times… 440 times in 3 years… that is an average of 146.6 strikeouts a year!
Of course Romine is only in high A ball, next year he will start his season in double A but that is how all prospects work, you don’t just trade prospects in triple A and in fact a lot of time you get bigger deals done with guys from the lower levels of the organization… If you don’t believe me the Red Sox won’t be able to pull off any deals at all because most of their real talent is in double A or lower so how come they are linked to every trade in the league? It’s because people do value low level talent.
The Red Sox traded for Victor Martinez this past year and they gave up 1 major league level prospect without much value in Masterson and then threw in Bryan Price who has never seen any higher than A ball and Nick Hagadone who has never seen anything past advanced A ball. So trades do take place with prospects in the lower level of the farm system.
Do you think BJ Upton is a better player than Cliff Lee? The Phillies gave up none of their top tier prospects for Lee and he is a staff Ace who led them to the World Series… Name the last time a huge name prospect was traded? Scott Kazmir 5 years ago? Even the recent Kazmir trade by the Rays wasn’t a huge trade and Kazmir has more value than BJ does.
Kazmir was traded for Alex Torres who had never been higher than double A and only pitched 20 innings in double A before being traded to the Rays and the other player involved in the Kazmir trade was Matt Sweeney who plays 3B/1B and has never been above A ball, did that trade all of a sudden not happen?
Even Matt LaPorta is ranked at the same level of player as Austin Jackson this year and LaPorta was the main piece involved in the Sabathia to the Brewers trade, did that all of a sudden never happen?
McAllister is a back end of the rotation starter and that is why he makes sense in this deal… Every player invlolved in a trade doesn’t have to be Roy Halladay for the deal to work… You just happen to be one of the people who thinks they have to overpay for everyplayer and you see me as the guy who underpays. We are already giving up our 2 best everyday players in the trade when you consider Jackson is out best outfield prospect and since Montero may end up a DH Romine is our best infield prospect at the current moment.
A. Jackson, A Romine, Robertson and McAllister for BJ Upton is a fair deal… They fill holes and save money to re-sign Crawford long term.
You can’t loo at the Rays like everyone else, if they want to keep players that preform they have to trade the ones who aren’t…. Kazmir got shipped out to make room to pick up Crawford’s option because he was under preforming on his contract, BJ has been under preforming for all but 1 year of his career and sooner rather than later is going to need a new contract… If the Rays want to keep Carl Crawford long term (and they do) they are going to have to trade Upton to make the contract room necessary to do so. Just like with Kazmir if they can fill holes in the future while doing so they win.
The Rays can’t afford the big free agents so they much replenish their team with young players acquired in trades…
With Robertson they get a possible future closer who is major league ready as a setup man right now (although he walks to many to be our setup man), they get a future starter who can pitch in the back end of the rotation for cheap, they get Romine one of the top ranked overall catchers in the minors to be groomed to replace Dinor Navarro who has been benched and they get Austin Jackson who has a lot of upside and can take over in CF for them defensively right now if they want to do so.
The Yankees are taking the risk in acquiring a pre-Madonna who has never done anything to deserve his attitude towards the game.
Does BJ have talent? A boat load of it! However he has never actually put it together and he isn’t worth breaking the bank for… If the Rays think BJ is worth Montero then they won’t trade him anywhere and they will just end up losing Carl Crawford next year in the proccess of keeping a CFer who has hit .270 once and .300 once and other than that can’t get above .250 BA. They want to keep Crawford and that means they have to move guys who have underperformed and are having contracts coming up soon.
Cliff Lee was 31 when the trigger was pulled and is an FA next year. Upton will be 26. Kazmir is oft-injured; Upton has been durable. Victor Martinez is a great hitting catcher but an average hitting first baseman (and was probably still a discount), while Upton gives good offensive production (if he recovers his 2007 form great offensive production) from a defense-first position. Apples and oranges. Upton is still cost-controlled. Nothing I’m saying is objectionable, it’s the novice farm system watcher’s dream that a good role player and some strong but sub-elite prospects are going to bring back one of the most highly-regarded young players in the game.
Scott Kazmir is a 25 about to be 26 year old left handed starting pitcher who has succeeded at the highest level in the toughest division in baseball as the “ace” of the The Tampa Bay Rays. For 4 straight years Kazmir put up sub 3.7 ERAs in the AL East and you think he has less value than BJ Upton?
Kazmir has made 32+ starts twice and has made 26+ starts in the 2 years he didn’t make 32 (not counting his rookie season) and he has always put up stellar numbers except for the 1 year in which he was traded in which case he still put up a 1.73 ERA with the Angels after his trade!
BJ on the other hand has had the opposite of Kazmir’s career, instead of 1 bad season Upton only has 1 good season in his entire major league career and on top of that he only has 1 mediocre season out of the rest… In total he has 3 terrible season out of 5 and 1 good season where he did anything worthy of being called a top tier player.
You do realize BJ started the year on the DL recovering from torn labrum surgery in his left shoulder right? HE then went on to bruise a bone in his leg in the minors during his rehab start this year, in 2007 BJ had a strained left quad that kept him out of action for over a month! Towards the end of the year this year BJ suffered an ankle injury when sliding back to first base which kept him out over 2 weeks and the upon his return from that injury he would go on to re injure that same ankle in the outfield while tracking down a ball… I could go on and on and I could bring up minor leauge injuries he had as well…So to say he hasn’t been injured and Kazmir has so that’s the reason for lesser prospects is BS… BJ has been injured plenty of times and has even undergone surgery which is something Kazmir has never had to do.
Just compare the following 2 stats lines…
1899 ABs, .266 AVG, .352 OBP, .410 SLG, .762 OPS… 49 HRs, 226 RBI, 526 Ks
1923 ABs, .269 AVG, .331 OBP, .385 SLG, .716 OPS… 36 HRs, 228 RBI, 246 Ks
The top line is BJ’s career numbers and the bottom are Melky Cabrera’s and both have played the exact same number of years at the big league level… Now Melky is an average CFer at best and shouldn’t be an everyday CFer going forward because he doesn’t have that level of talent and yet he still has very comparable career numbers to the “Elite” BJ Upton… I am not trying to say BJ doesn’t have talent and I am not saying he can’t be one of the best CFers in baseball because I believe he can but you act as though he is already there… The guy has only had 1 season in the MLB worth writing home about and the rest of his years make him look worse than Melky and in fact the only thing making his career numbers slightly better than Melky is that 1 good year.
Victor Martinez isn’t going to be the Red Sox starting first baseman next year, he is going into spring training as the starting catcher and Varitek will be his backup. His trade wasn’t a discount his trade was what is normal for this type of economic Climate, top prospects don’t change hands as much anymore and instead 1 or 2 higher level prospects coupled with 2 or 3 lower ranked prospects make trades now days.
Lee was 31 but also under contract for 2 years as an Ace of a club and as the reigning Cy Young award winner! He single handedly kept the Phillies in the World series and he was traded for chips and a soda basically.
Romine and Jackson are both considered more than just “role players” in the eyes of the baseball world and David Robertson is looked upon as more than a “sub” prospect of any kind.
Romine is one of the most valuable prospects in the Yankees system and it just so happens to be a position of need and want to the Rays and in fact I have read where they have shopped for a catcher to replace Navarro. You could get Upton in a deal involving A. Romine and A. Jackson as long as you throw in 2 more prospects from the middle layer.. Obviously the Rays have to pick these players but you act as if BJ Upton is a golden god or something… You act as though Upton is considered one of the top 10 CFer in the baseball and he isn’t… In fact most people view BJ in the way you would a barley know prospect because of the lack of any real production and the ridiculous strikeout rate for someone who has shown little power for the most part.
Are you serious? Nothing you are saying is objectionable? Well I am sorry your honor I forgot I was in the presence of greatness!
You talk about BJ Upton like he has proven himself in this league… You act as though 2009 was just 1 bad year that is the exception to the rule when in reality he has only ever had 1 year in which he proved he had any talent at all and as of right now that is more the exception that the rule. You also don’t seem to understand the inability of the Rays to keep both Crawford and Upton and since Crawford has actually proven himself to be more than a 9 hole hitter they want to extend him for the good of the future of the team and fan support!
I really don’t take kindly to you implying I am a “novice” and I really don’t know where you get off thinking you are better than me or something just because you have a differing opinion than me… If anything that is what is “silly” and it’s actually bordering on name calling if you want to be truthful about it!
I am still floored that you believe that it would take Montero plus for BJ Upton… Anyone on this site could tell you that isn’t true and even though he is just a prospect who will start in Scranton next year I guarantee most of the people on this site right now given the choice would take Montero over Upton any day! Montero by himself could pick up more than BJ Upton, I don’t even think I would trade Montero straight up for Justin Upton and he is light years ahead of his brother in both abiltity and talent!
I will also say that those 526 Ks in only 1899 ABs results in a strikeout every 3 and a half at bats… Even Melky only strikes-out every 7.8 ABS and he is a free swinger with much less overall power and speed than Upton.
And I would point out that Austin Jackson was K-ing every four trips to the plate. At AAA.
Which has nothing to do with anything… I never said Austin Jackson is better than either one what I am telling you is BJ’s numbers aren’t as good as you make them out to be what Austin Jackson has to do with that I don’t know. If you are trying to say he is King every 4 having to do something with the trade I don’t see it having any baring, the only reason I bring up the Ks is to show you just how much BJ strikes out… If anything Jackson’s K rate just shows you that Upton strikes-out more often in the bigs than Austin Jackson does in triple A.
I wouldn’t want to part with Romine (in part because I think a good season offensively and defensively at Trenton will put him in the elite prospect conversation, especially if he can become more patient). And I wouldn’t deal Montero for Upton either. But the Rays are going to ask for him, ESPECIALLY within the division. It’s like look at the NFL Draft “values” for given picks and saying that we can package such and such to move up because the math on those values works out. You need a willing seller. You can look empirically at a guy like AJack and a guy like Romine and tell me that they add up to BJ Upton. And I tell you that a Rays team is going to look at Jackson, about whose potential there is nothing approaching a consensus, and Romine, who has yet to catch a game at AA, and say flat out no. Why do they want a package centered around a CF when they have Jennings? And Romine isn’t enough to anchor a package for Upton. DRob is definitely an asset, but he’s still a bullpen arm who didn’t get thrown into pressure situations regularly until the postseason, and even then was third fiddle to Joba and Hughes even though neither was pitching consistently. With the SP talent they’ve got they’re almost certainly going to insist on Montero at least and that’s where Cash hangs up the phone.
NFL trading and baseball trading are totally different animals and can’t even be compared… Talk about apples and oranges!
Robertson didn’t get put in pressure situations? I believe in the playoffs he came into 3 different bases loaded situations with less than 2 outs and gave up 0 runs in those situations, in fact almost every time he pitched in the playoffs it was a huge situation and the only run he gave up was Phil Hughes’ after Hughes walked two guys to start an inning… The Rays have huge bullpen problems and definitely would see someone who K’d 13/9 as an asset late in their pen.
So since you talked to the GM of the Rays and the Rays owners what else did they tell you about their plans? Because if you didn’t talk to them you have no idea what they will say no to! Do you?
Are you crazy? Montero is a player at 3x the level BJ ever was and they would never ask for Montero because they know they would never get him, and I highly doubt they want Joba right now…
Austin Jackson is a prospect that is ranked right by Matt LaPorta right now in the outfield prospects hierarchy and LaPorta was the main piece in a the Sabathia deal so how then is Jackson and Romine not a starting point for trade talks? I never said that the other 2 guys have to be who I said they were I was simply throwing out names from the beginning and you think you are god with all the answers or at least the your answers.
Romine and Jackson with Robertson is a 3 man package that would interest the Rays for sure and if you give them the choice of several players not name Montero, Joba and Hughes to choose from for the 4th guy you could definitely come up with a package they would take BJ for.
You have to stop looking at BJ as a god and realize that his value doesn’t sit as high as you think it does because Montero is someone who has been shot down in talks about Roy Halladay why then would the Rays think Montero would be available for a career .260 hitter who has only played average to above average D for 2 years?
I don’t look at BJ as a God. I look at him as a proven young talent whose worst case scenario (patient hitter, great defense, 40+ steals) is still very good and whose best case scenario is a legit five tools. Do you really think he’s going to be a sub-.700 OPS over his career?
The upshot of this is that we’re a poor trading partner for them. You want to send them back a CF. They have an up and coming one in Jennings. Romine is a C, a position of relative need for them (Navarro may not be as bad as last year but he’s probably not a consistent mid-.700′s OPS guy either), but he’s not going to anchor a deal, not yet anyway. The one guy we have that they are likely to really want is Montero. That’s where Cashman should hang up the phone. And as I said even Montero is probably not enough by himself.
He is a patient hitter has “proven” he can strikeout 146 times per year on average in his career!
I think he will be that bad for his whole career? No, but right now he hasn’t proven that he will have better numbers than he is putting up now. A lot of guys played in this league with talent and never lived up to what they were suppose to be, heck look at Kyle Farsnworth why isn’t that guy a closer? All the talent he needs but it never worked out, that is the risk you take with guys who have underperformed their whole career. Therefore he is only worth a little more than what he has proven to be he isn’t worth what he could become otherwise Joba could be traded for almost anyone because when he is throwing hard as a starter he could be great.
Here we go again! Montero for Upton I laugh if you really think that Rays would want Montero plus… You way overrate BJ Upton!
BJ also hit .190 against left handed batters this year with 1 HR in the proccess…
Last year against lefties he hit .269/.415/.404 and the year before that he hit .281/.389/.512.
So? What does that have to do with him having a terrible year against left handed hitters as a right handed “power” bat?
If you will notice something daneptizil those numbers are going down by year… we call that a trend in sports…
2009- .190 BA against left handed pitching
2008- .269 BA against left handed pitching
2007- .281 BA against left handed pitching
That just proves he is getting worse at hitting lefties by year, are we suppose to believe he is guaranteed to break out of a 3 year slide in one offseason?
Yes that is why I said he has only been average to above average for 2 years in CF but he still wasn’t gold glove caliber this year and he clearly tanked a couple of plays especially one in NY that he clearly should have caught but showboated the over the shoulder catch and another one at Yankee stadium where he simply didn’t run hard enough.
You still refuse to answer my question. Why would they want Jackson? They have Desmond Jennings, a combined AA/AAA OPS of .888 and 52 steals. And even if you believe the best about Romine’s value he is not enough to anchor a deal. It makes zero sense for them to deal him to us unless they can ask for Montero, and even then I don’t see them doing a 1 for 1. It doesn’t make sense for either side, plus its intra-division. It’s not going to happen.
Jackson is a year younger than Jennings and has played an entire season in triple A as opposed to Desmond’s 30 games, Jackson is a higher ranked prospect than Jennings is and has the potential for more power than Jennings does while Desmond is the faster player. Jackson could develop into a LFer as well if his bat picks up and at the rate the Rays trade players because of payroll, they could trade BJ and still be in the market to trade Carl Crawford in order for them to extend Carlos Pena’s contract which is due up after the 2010 season. Shedding payroll is nothing new for the Rays and it will be apart of their future as well it one reason it’s hard for them to compete because in order to keep 1 player they have to get rid of another.
Intra-division doesn’t matter when it comes to getting a deal, only idiots like the Jays former manager hikes up price within the division, that;s why trade talks about Halladay to the Sox or Yankees has cranked up around the league because the new GM is willing to trade in division as most smart GMs are now days.
Where are you getting this Montero 1-1 thing? The Yankees would never do it and the Rays would never ask for it Montero by himself has more trade value now than BJ Upton does as a pro ball player already. Even if the Rays don’t want Austin Jackson there is no way in hell they ask for Montero… they might ask for Hughes but Montero? They aren’t that ballsy!
Or should I say Jackson is at the same or higher level of prospect as Jennings is and has the potential for more than Jennings does while Desmond is the faster player…
Why wouldn’t they ask for him? They’re under no obligation to move Upton now and would be disinclined to do so on any but their terms, especially coming off his worst year as a pro. 2009 was Jennings’ breakout year, we’ll see where he ends up in the overall rankings but he’ll definitely close the gap with AJack, maybe even overtake him.
The point is they’re under no obligation to trade Upton, even less of one to trade him to us, and the only top prospect we have who is likely to really interest them is Montero. Even if you’re right on Upton’s present value, and I don’t think you are, they will get a more appropriate package from someone else.
Why wouldn’t they ask for him? Because it would be like asking for Roy Halladay and only offering Joba Chamberlain it just isn’t going to happen…
No obligation at all, unless they plan on losing both Crawford and BJ to free agency anyway… BJ will be a free agent after 2012 and both Crawford and Pena’s contracts end after next season. They need to retain at least 1 of those 3 guys and it would do them well to keep 2 of the 3. The best way to do that is to remove the one who is the least productive and lock up the two you know perform when it matters.
Trade Upton for some pieces that fit into the future while saving yourself from having to give him a raise in arbitration and be able to lock up Crawford and Pena to long term deals before the season ends.
I heard the Rangers were interested in BJ but weren’t willing to part with any of there top prospects to get him and apparently they have him on the back burner so I think that tells you something… If anyone can afford to spare some prospects in a trade it’s the Rangers and they don’t seem inclined at all and they looking for someone to play CF.
Three more years of cost-controlled Upton versus a speedster who will be on the wrong side of thirty in 2012 and command eight figures per annum for both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, by your logic it makes a lot more sense to sell Crawford while his value is high.
The day the asking price comes down to AJack and Romine plus is the day that the Rangers and half a dozen other teams get on the phone and make their own offers.
I don’t want Crawford I think he will only start to decline once he hits 30 and before long will be in the defensive range of Johnny Damon but from the looks of it the Rays don’t see it that way, they seem genuinely intent on trying to sign Crawford long term.
I also am not sure how much you can get for Crawford, I mean as you said he is a pure speed guy who hits at the top of the lineup with limited power who in 2 years will be 30 on his decline. Probably get more for Crawford then you would get for BJ at the current moment though.
The day the asking price goes up to Montero plus is the day hell freezes over!
At this point I am willing to trade Austin in any deal that nets a long term solution at CF or any deal that involves us getting a 28 years old or younger starting pitcher…
Austin is a good player but his potential is only so high if his power doesn’t develop and while he isn’t a bad fielder in CF he isn’t the greatest and if you are going to deal with 140+ strikeouts and no power you would like for him to be a little sharper defender.
2 centerfielders who pop in to mind as possibly available would be the obvious on of Curtis Granderson who has been rumored as on the block and one who hasn’t been mentioned would be Grady Sizemore.
Sizemore has some of the same problems that Granderson does which include the lack of abiltity to hit lefties but like Granderson he also bring extrme power to CF.
Two players who come to mind as possible CF trade options for the Yankees…
Of course the obvious one is Curtis Granderson, the other not talked about as much player is Grady Sizemore… Sizemore is a year younger than Granderson and exhibits the same kind of power from the left side of the plate having hit 33 HRS in 2008. In 2009 he had an injury shortened season which ended in surgery so he has a little bit of a question mark to him there but either one could play a better CF than we currently have and bring enough power from the left side of the plate hitting high enough in the order to completely replace Damon’s production in the lineup.
Who costs more? Granderson coming off of his worst average year but best with power or Sizemore who is coming off of mid season surgery and like Granderson a down year with his average (although that can be explained by the injury).
Both players are going to bring extreme power to the CF position but they both have some huge flaws… Sizmore like Granderson doesn’t hit lefties that well (though he is slightly better than Curtis) and also like Granderson Sizemore tends to strikeout 130-150+ times a year, Unlike Granderson however Sizmore has never actually hit higher than .290 in a season and they both hit leadoff in their respective orders.
quite often , especially when dumping salary as teams often do, it’s more important that the fans think they received a top prospect then if he really is a top prospect.I think AJax passes the top prospect test.
He is ranked in the top 25 I believe when it comes to prospects rankings but I don’t know how much people know of him in other camps.
You could possibly do a Austin Jackson trade in which you bring back Sizmore… Sizemore coming off injury and the Indians look to be in complete rebuilding mode and at 27 Grady is one of the guys who would be in his 30s once they start winning again so to get the most value for him he needs to be traded soon.
Grady is under contract until the end of 2011 but he has a team option for 2012, once he is traded however his team option morphs into a player option basically turning it from a 3 year contract to 2 years as soon as you acquire him. Because of this the Indians are losing leverage with the idea of trading him because even though he is coming off of surgery he only under contract for 2 more years and if they wait a year to trade him he is a 28 year old instead of 27 and only has 1 year left on his deal instead of 2… This means they should at least be open to the idea of trading him either during the winter or in the middle of the season during the trade deadline.
Montero and Romine in my and i believe the Yankees minds are the true untouchables.Posada is almost over and Montero’s bat is super special for a catcher and good for anywhere else.
Romine does it all and has only scratched the surface of what he can be and yankees know it.
You trade OF’s and pitchers who look to be limited.You don’t trade Catchers with special ability until 1-2 make it.
I agree Montero is off limits but I think if a deal comes along the Yankees really like but Romine is the holdup there will be no holdup.
Grady Sizemore Vs Curtis Granderson… I started all numbers in 2006 because that was Granderson’s first season with 500+ ABs.
Grady Sizemore is 27 years old and Curtis Granderson is 28.
Sizemore offense
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2006- 655 ABs, 190 H, 53 2B, 11 3B, 28 HRs, 78 BB, 153 Ks, 22 SB, 6 CS – .290/.375/.533/.908, .214 Avg against LHP
2007- 628 ABs, 174 H, 34 2B, 5 3B, 24 HRs, 101 BB, 155 Ks, 33 SB, 10 CS – .277/.390/.462/.852, .284 Avg against LHP
2008- 634 ABs, 170 H, 39 2B, 5 3B, 33 HRs, 98 BB, 130 Ks, 38 SB, 5 CS – .268/.374/.502/.876, .224 Avg against LHP
2009- 436 ABs, 108 H, 20 2B, 6 3B, 18 HRs, 60 BB, 92 Ks, 13 SB, 8 CS – .248/.343/.445/.788, .216 Avg against LHP
Sizemore defense
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2006- Arm 1.7, RngR 12.1, UZR 14.8
2007- Arm -3.6, RngR 5.9, UZR 3.5
2008- Arm -5.1, RngR 5.5, UZR 1.5
2009- Arm -2.2, RngR -1.5, UZR -2.6
Granderson offense
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2006- 596 ABs, 155 H, 31 2B, 9 3B, 19 HRs, 66 BB, 174 Ks, 8 SB, 5 CS – .260/.335/.438/.773, .218 Avg against LHP
2007- 612 ABs, 185 H, 38 2B, 23 3B, 23 HRs, 52 BB, 141 Ks, 26 SB, 1 CS – .302/.361/.552/.913, .160 Avg against LHP
2008- 553 ABs, 155 H, 26 2B, 13 3B, 22 HRs, 71 BB, 111 Ks, 12 SB, 4 CS – .280/.365/.494/.859, .259 Avg against LHP
2009- 631 ABs, 157 H, 23 2B, 8 3B, 30 HRs, 72 BB, 141 Ks, 20 SB, 6 CS – .249/.327/.453/.780, .183 Avg against LHP
Granderson defense
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2006- Arm 0.1, RngR 12.4, UZR 13.7
2007- Arm 4.5, RngR 8.8, UZR 14.2
2008- Arm -1.4 RngR -7.5, UZR -8.9
2009- Arm -0.6 RngR 1.4, UZR 1.6
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2008 was the year Granderson was injured and you can see that reflected in his defensive numbers while Sizemore was injured this year and suffered for it as well in the field. I think Granderson is on the rebound and will only improve his defense next year, all his numbers went up defensively from last year to this one and at one time he was putting up much better defensive numbers in CF than Grady was. Sizemore is also on a trend of downward defensive play and he has gotten steadily worse, if that continues he could become a LFer in no time.
I also think Granderson can hit left handed pitching well enough to be an everyday player in our lineup, with Sizemore you are getting a guy who has been better in his career against lefties than Granderson but has been inconsistent with his priduction Vs the southpaws…. Both are great CFers who have fallen on slightly hard times at least enough to be traded from smaller market teams, so which would you rather have?