Yesterday we discussed who we might give Jesus Montero up for. Now I want to discuss which of those players the Yankees might be able to get with a package built around Montero. Here is the full list of names, from the original post and the comments:
Evan Longoria- unlikely. He’s an all around superstar signed to a team friendly deal.
Justin Verlander- I think that you might be able to steal him this offseason with a mega-offer, as IIATMS speculated this morning.
Zack Greinke- Never going to happen. Ace pitcher just coming into his own and signed to an affordable deal.
Joe Mauer- This depends on how contract negotiations go with the Twins. They could not get him today, but possibly at the deadline if it seems like he will hit free agency.
Felix Hernandez- You would have to empty the farm along with Montero, but he could be had.
Hanley Ramirez- Hanley is signed long term and does not get really expensive until 2012. He is probably untouchable until then, although the Marlins have shown a willingness to trade young stars for the right package.
Albert Pujols- The Cardinals would never trade him.
Tim Lincecum- Is there a more untouchable player? Cy Young pitcher on a team that will have no problem paying him.
Matt Wieters- You could get him, but adding any legitimate prospects to Montero makes it a bad deal for NY.
Jason Heyward- Same deal as Wieters.
Justin Upton- He is unsigned and will become expensive soon, but he is not going anywhere for the time being.
Brian McCann- I think you could get him with a Montero/Chamberlain plus package, but I do not love his body type.
Grady Sizemore- Definitely possible. I’d like to see him bounce back before giving up Montero.
Roy Halladay- Could be had. Do you want to sell the farm for a 33 year old?
Troy Tulowitzki- Great player and leader signed to a stellar contract. Not available.
Pablo Sandoval- I think Montero could give you Sandoval like production, so I’m not making that trade.
Tommy Hanson- It would take Montero plus, and I’m not sure it is worth it.
Ryan Zimmerman- Just signed to a good deal, staying put.
Adam Jones- The O’s are not going to trade their best young players to the Yankees.
Nick Markakis- See above.
Matt Kemp- The Dodgers are a franchise that can pay Kemp, and will.
Jon Lester- Never going to happen.
Adrian Gonzalez- He’s blocked by Tex, but Montero plus could get him.
Josh Johnson- Very possible. A package built around Montero would get you Johnson, would be like the Beckett deal.
Ryan Braun-Braun’s contract is one of the most team friendly in the sport. He will be a Brewer for a long time.
Clayton Kershaw- If he is traded, it will be for one of the other’s on this list, not prospects.
Stephen Strausberg- Too much hype for the Nats to trade him.
Basically, I think a strong package built around Jesus could get you the following players in the proper circumstances:
Verlander, Mauer, Hernandez, Wieters, Heyward, McCann, Sizemore, Halladay, Sandoval, Hanson, Gonzalez, Johnson.
Agree? Disagree? Have players to add?
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41 Responses to Discussion: Who Could You Get For Jesus Montero?
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TIQ IQ
I would do it for the first three and probably Johnson. To me, Montero is much more likely a DH-in-waiting than he is an acceptable ML catcher. So, despite the great bat, I don’t hold him in as high regard as some others do. With so many promising catchers in the organization, I also do not see the wisdom of dealing him for anothe rcatching prospect. Mauer, though, is a different story….
Like I said, it is all dependent on circumstance. You can only get Felix or Mauer if both fail in contract negotiations with their current clubs.
Josh Johnson
absolute STUD and 26
would be a Horse for next 10 years.
Refugee from WW, first of hopefully many posts to be dropped here…
I agree with your list and the comments/notes you added. Since you have Roy Halladay (established, veteran All-Star), Hanley Ramirez (established, young All-Star) and Stephen Strasburg (likely BA.com top-5 overall prospect), I haven’t figured out the criteria for the list as it just seems to run the gamut of desirable players. As such, I’d add:
Miguel Cabrera, Brad Hawpe, Carl Crawford, Matt Cain and Brandon Webb
For whatever it’s worth, I’d trade Montero in just about any situation, including one that would involve Roy Halladay. As good as his bat has been in the minors, his value is entirely tied to his ability to provide plus-level offense as a catcher. Since no independent scout has been willing to predict an MLB future behind the plate, I’d rather trade him before that value dissipates entirely. He’d still have a good, but not elite, stick as a 1B/LF/RF/DH.
Welcome, MJ, great to have you aboard.
I would not trade him for Hawpe (awful defensively, could be had for less), Webb (injury issues), or Crawford (will be a FA soon). I would probably include him in a Cain deal, and I think you could get him in that sort of deal. Cabrera is obviously blocked by Tex, and has a monster contract and a notoriously suspect work ethic (Oprah like weight fluctuations, drinking, spousal issues) that would give me pause.
In regard to your last point, I’m pretty sure I’ve heard Keith Law say that he’s a top prospect even if he doesn’t and up at catcher. The reason that more guys are not on the list is that I would not deal him for any players that are nearing free agency, which is why I wouldn’t include him in a Halladay deal. The Yankees have not developed a premium middle of the order bat in a while, so I would only deal him for a player the Yankees will have control of for a while, or elite young guys like Mauer.
Thanks Moshe, glad to be on board!
I agree 100%, I wouldn’t trade him for Hawpe or Webb for the reasons you mentioned. I only added them because they fit the profile of players that’ll probably be on the move given their team’s financial profile and expected pay increases due to those guys.
I also agree on Cabrera. He’s blocked by Teixeira and he’s certainly not a bargain in terms of his contract. That being said, he’d make one hell of a DH and, given how expensive he is, I wonder if Detroit wouldn’t be willing to either take lesser prospects for him or take Montero and toss in some money (the way the Rangers did with A-Rod).
Crawford’s (or Cain’s) 2011 free agency doesn’t concern me because I assume that any trade of Montero for a free-agent-to-be would take place with the understanding that the Yanks would lock up that player before he reached free agency.
I, too, saw that Keith Law report. I just don’t see how one can extricate his defense from his overall prospect profile. If he’s a .325/.379/.509 player as his MiLB record suggests, there’s a ton of value there, no question about it. But if he can’t catch, that’s a solid but not spectacular 1B/OF/DH type. I don’t see how Law can just pretend the catching aspect doesn’t come into play.
You are right, and I think I’m probably falling into the “love your team’s prospects” trap, plus hoping that somehow he ends up at catcher. He has great value, but probably not quite as much as we have built him up to have due to him playing catcher in the minors.
Regarding the free agents, I just think it might make more sense to wait for a guy like Crawford to hit free agency rather than empty the farm for that type of guy. Further, like you noted with Cabrera, I think Crawford and maybe even Cain could be had for a package that didn’t include Montero.
I don’t understand how his value is tied to being a C… Montero has the kind of raw power and body type to end up a 35-40 HR hitter at 1B, LF or DH how does that not have value? This is also a guy who has the abiltity to be a guy who is hitting for power and average driving in runs as a legit number 5 hitter and providing protection for Alex and Tex’s decline.
I hear ya, but I think his value is being tied up at C specifically because you can find a slugger at 1B, DH or a corner OF spot but not behind the dish. Right now we have no way of knowing if he’s a competent 1B or OF and, at present, he’s blocked at 1B by Teixeira anyway. If he truly can’t catch, he better start learning how to play another position but, unfortunately, the moment he starts doing that, his value begins to decrease…
I’m saying worse case scenario you have a DH who is young and strong hitting 30 HRs and a year with the abiltity to hit above .300, we don’t have a DH option right now that can hit 30 HRs or hit .300 separately let alone together. That kind of power in a kid so young is a rarity to me his value is tied up in the fact hat I don’t look at him as a C I look at him as a bat and he is a very talented one with only up to go.
don’t get me wrong he is more valuable behind the dish than at any other position but even at DH if he is only hitting 30 HRs he’s something special and if he taps into his potential and can hit 40 HRs as a DH or at LF then he is a rare bat in line with Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard but from the right side.
In regards to Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward and Matt Wieters, how often are prospects or under-two-years-of-service impact talents traded for prospects? I’m not commenting on the plausibility of such a deal; basically, I just can’t recall a significant prospect(s)-for-prospect(s) deal occurring in the past decade.
I can’t recall one either. Moreover, I highly doubt that the Orioles would trade a polished two-way catcher for a guy that profiles more as a DH type. Weiters is one year removed from being considered the game’s best prospect, according to Baseball America. Hard to see Baltimore shipping him out after he put up a .301/.351/.415 line in 246 2nd half AB’s.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html
I think you could get him for Montero and Chamberlain, with another lower level guy thrown in. Would that deal make sense for the Yankees? I’m really not sure.
I guess it all boils down to what one’s view of Montero is. If you value Montero highly, you probably don’t do this. If you see Montero as the team’s most tradeable asset based on market timing and “Q-rating”, you make the trade.
For me, I’d do Chamberlain/Montero/lower level throw-in for 5+ years of cost-controlled access to the game’s #1 catching prospect. It moves Posada to DH for 2010-2011, solves the Matsui situation, takes us out of the Mauer sweepstakes and turns some of the Cervelli/Romine/Higashioka/Murphy surplus into tradeable assets.
It obviously also has to do with how you view Chamberlain. I know you are not a big fan of the guy, but if you view him as a potential ace, him + Montero even as a 1Bman is a bad deal. If you are down on him and think he’s a #2-#3 and think Montero is more valuable as a tradeable asset, then you make the deal for all the reasons you just noted.
Almost never.
To elaborate, teams almost always become attached to the guys that they have raised in their own system, and therefore two prospects of similar value rarely get traded for each other.
Cash is going to part with Montero, posssibly Jackson and a couple of pitchers (Kennedy, Aceves?). Maybe even Joba or Hughes. For who ? Halladay and big contract Wells. Taking Wells (21 mil per yr) off their hands will provide a discount on Halladay. You saw it here first !
I can practically guarantee that will not happen. There is no way that Brian Cashman will take Vernon Wells in any deal. If he did, None of the guys you mentioned (Hughes, Chamberlain, Montero) would be included.
With due respect Moshe, you can’t “guarantee” anything. Wells will sove the CF problem for the next 4 yrs. He was hurt for a couple of years but will be back. His salary above Damon or Matsui can be considered to be like a Igawa type payment to the Japanese team.
You are right, I can’t guarantee it, I meant that as a figure of speech for “I really, really, really, really doubt it.”
He was awful last year, and will likely be an epic albatross on the Jays or any other team. He can’t hit anymore and has become a defensive liability. He was worse than Melky last year by plenty. Considering Cashman didn’t want to add Santana’s salary in a trade, I highly doubt he would add Wells’.
Oy vey, Wells will cause more problems over the next four years than he’ll be able to solve. He’s a financial burden on any payroll — even the Yankees — and his performance has been inconsistent:
2006: 129 OPS+
2007: 85
2008: 122
2009: 88
Which Wells is the real Wells at this point? The guy roughly 25% better than league average in 2006 and 2008 or the one roughly 13% worse than league average in 2007 and 2009?
I’m not sure I understood your Igawa reference but I’m not sure it really matters. The Yanks wouldn’t take Wells to get Halladay under any circumstances.
… and if they did it would be for all low level prospects and be viewed as nothing but a salary dump by the Jays and they would never do that while including Halladay.
I should mention that unlike his wildly-fluctuating offensive output, his defense has been horrid. UZR/150 puts him at -24.0 and -18.7 for 2007 and 2008, respectively.
Why would the Yanks pay the remaining $107M on Wells’s contract for such a poor player?
Melky = 274/331/385 12Hrs 68 rbi
Wells = 260/311/400 15Hrs 66 rbi
” .. worse than Melky by plenty” ????
Pretty much a statistical wash and Vernon was playing hurt. The whole idea here is to get the Blue Jays to give up Halladay reasonably and to shore up the OF (AJ in left maybe) for some years to come. Money be damned. Halladay yoked with CC and AJ will “guarantee” one of more titles on the next few years.
Vernon Wells WAR 2009 = (0.1)
Melky Cabrera WAR 2009 = 1.6
Vernon Wells WAR 2007-2009 = 1.9
Cabrera was worth 1.5 more wins to his team than Wells was to his. Make of that what you will, but when you consider the $107M remaining on Wells’s contract, I think the choice is clear that Cabrera is CLEARLY the better baseball player given his offensive and defensive contributions and the cost associated with him.
Money be damned is certainly a fine attitude to take when you’re talking about adding Sabathia, Teixeira or another championship-caliber player. Vernon Wells is clearly not that type of player so you can’t just ignore his cost when you consider that he’s only been worth approximately two total wins over the past three seasons. The operative word here is “stinks” and Vernon Wells certainly does.
What a crazy mix of logic. First you want to be a pure sabermetrician and then you go off on how the “cost” of a player is a fair judgement of his value. How can a player be better because he costs less ?
Of course cost has to enter the equation; baseball isn’t played for free, after all. Assuming your scenario — New York trades prospects X, Y and Z for Halladay and Wells — the Yankees will certainly move to extend Halladay at a rate similar to what Santana/Sabathia are earning (let’s assume 5Y/$100M). When you add an additional $107M to that, we’ve reached $207M for Halladay and Wells, rid the team of young, const-controlled talent and only improved the rotation.
If you want to argue that Vernon Wells is better than Melky Cabrera on the field of play, I’m willing to entertain that argument, although it’s certainly not evident to me that you’re correct. Despite that, you simply can’t ignore the enormous cost disparity between Cabrera and Wells. Cabrera earned $1.4M in 2009 and is probably due to make around $2.5M in 2010. If two players are approximately equal but one makes $2.5M in one season (with no guaranteed financial obligation beyond this season) and the other is owed $107M through 2014, how can you neglect cost? That’s $104.5M in resources being allocated to a player performing no better than a guy you could’ve had for $2.5M. How does that make sense to you?
The Igawa reference is to the lost millions NY paid just for the priviledge to sign him. Same for Sox and Matsazaka. The extra cost of Wells over Damon or Matsui could be considered payment to land Halladay. So far as Wells defense I can’t accept UZR over my own eyes. Have you seen how Tex is rated? Have you watched him play ? Which do you believe. Jter also for that matter. Wells is superior to Melky or Gardner, closer to Torii and even he is given crappy ratings.
I agree that defensive metrics aren’t perfect and that I don’t fully understand them enough to blindly believe in them. I also know that Wells isn’t “superior to Melky or Gardner” and is most certainly not “closer to Torii” as a defensive centerfielder.
As you said, you don’t have to believe in defensive metrics to know what you see with your own eyes. If you see in Wells a similarity to Torii Hunter, I just don’t know what to tell you. We’ll just have to agree to disagree. Frankly, you’d be arguing on an island on that one. There isn’t a single scout in baseball that would agree with you there.
O.k I’ll agree to disagree but tell me please … do you really know every single scout in baseball and can you vouch for their opinions? Your statement is pure hyperbole and just can’t be taken seriously, it’s akin to saying “It’s so because I said so!”.
At any rate it’s been fun. Thanks for responding.
I don’t obviously know every scout in baseball. You’re right, I exaggerated. Nevertheless, it seems to me like you’re arguing semantics now with respect to my style of argumentation.
You’re entitled to believe that Wells is the superior offensive and defensive player to Cabrera but the metrics show otherwise. When you factor in the difference in price between the two, I don’t even need one scout to tell me what this means. Wells stinks.
MJ basically said everything I would have said. I watch Wells with my eyes, and he has really slowed down out there, and his reactions were never great. He is a lesser player than Melky for a much higher price, and is widely considered the worst contract in baseball.
Dave Vernon Wells in CF doesn’t sure up anything in the defensive outfield! The guy is terrible in the outfield and should be moved to the corner outfield anyway but he doesn’t produce offensively.
Gardner is far and away the best defensive player at CF on our team and Melky is a better CF than Vernon so therefore Gardner > Melky > Wells
Wells would be the worst of the 3 in CF and I would almost guarantee that the Blue Jays would agree, that is the worst contract in baseball and not one statistical category will backup Vernon being a better player and when you add in the money it isn’t close… MJ and Mo are completely right here… I would take Mike Cameron over Wells on both sides of the field!!
Getting back to the original question, I would think that Josh Johnson would be the best bet in terms of availability. Using the Beckett trade as the model, a package of Montero and 3-4 solid young pitching prospects, not including Joba or Hughes, might do the trick. A Sabathhia/Johnson/ Burnett troika should give the Yankees a formidable threesome for the next period of time.My hunch is that Felix will eventually re-sign with Seattle and that Detroit will bite the bullet and keep Verlander while waiting for the great majority of ” dead weight” contracts to expire after 2010.
As for the others, I doubt either Wieters or Heyward would be available. Wieters is a CATCHER, posted similar offensive numbers to Montero in the minors and is the face of alook moribund franchise moving forward.Heyward is a 5-tool guy, from Atlanta and closer to being major league ready as an everyday player.
If the Yanks don’t explore acquiring Josh Johnson (if he is indeed available) they’re nuts. Like your proposal: Montero + young pitchers. I am not averse to trading either Joba or Hughes plus maybe McAllister for him. I think he is bona fide stud. Something that Joba & Hughes must prove yet.
Josh Johnson has some real injury concerns and I think the Marlins only offering 3 years kind of shows their trust in his arm… The Yankees refused to give Wang a long term deal for a reason and it happened…
Johnson would probably only be done with Joba and Hughes+ or Montero+ and I don’t agree with doing either one, we don’t need another ace right now we have a 29 year old CC what we need is a solid middle of the rotation guy and some miscellaneous pieces. To trade Montero now would be foolish and trading both Hughes and Joba right now is silly as well when you consider both are at lows on their trade value compared to what it could be… If 1 of them turns into a close comparison to Johnson and the other one is a 3 or 4 starter they have more value than Johnson does by themselves not counting the other prospects you have to give up.
I can see trading for him I guess, but he is probably going to be a FA in 2 years and it’s not like his career is winding down.
Dave, you justify taking on Well’s 100 million dollar contract as the “cost” of Halladay. What you are essentially arguing is that Halladay is worth 100 million + whatever he gets as an extention (hypothetically 100 for 5 years on the cheapend), or 200 million dollars for 5 years of his service. This premise doesnt even factor in the prospects involved = Montero, Jackson +. Are you truly arguing that? Please think before speaking.
HAHA I would agree with Jason… Isn’t the price of the extension the “price of trading for Halladay” and isn’t having to give up 2 or 3 of your top prospects for Halladay the “price of signing Halladay?
Once you get past that and realize that you are trading for a 33 year old Roy Halladay who has no where in his career to go but down and one of the most underachieving players in the game who on Dec 8th will be 31 (Wells) for Montero, probably A.Jackson+.
There is absolutely no way any team is going to give up a talented and proven position player for Montero, period. He is 18 years old, and while is a talented prospect with potentially big upside, he is still a prospect. People, I understand your passion but I don’t understand your logic!
And if you want to focus on trading to upgrade the team, focus on what positions the Yankees need to fill to repeat! Miguel Cabrera is a marginal starter and would have trouble getting into an everyday lineup on most playoff caliber teams. The NYY outfield is old and needs to be rebuilt. That’s where the discussions should be focused. What are the available young outfielders that possess speed, high BA, high OBP, decent slugging %, and good defensive skills (GLOVE and ARM). Like it or not Damon’s terrible throwing arm is a HUGE defensive liability. Miguel Cabrera, wouldn’t start for most quality playoff teams and Swisher is also marginal but good to have on the team. The Yankees need to fill these holes if they want to repeat.
Montero just turned 20 yesterday. He is likely to be rated one of the top-10 prospects in baseball by Baseball America. I’m not sure I see why you think teams wouldn’t trade a “talented and proven position player” when that’s exactly what happens in baseball every year. The Yanks traded prospects to Minnesota for Chuck Knoblauch. The Yanks traded prospects to Toronto for David Cone. The Yanks traded prospects to Pittsburgh for Nady/Marte. You get the picture…
The Yanks should obviously be interested in patching holes in their everyday lineup and I agree that the outfield is the team’s biggest area of need outside of another starting pitcher. However, you don’t trade someone of Montero’s caliber for a patch on a hole. You trade him for a star. The guy you’re describing sounds like Mike Cameron and Montero’s worth a helluva lot more than a solid everyday outfielder that hits and fields.