ESPN’s Buster Onley has a brand-spankin new Twitter account for this off season and has posted this tidbit late yesterday:
NYY are not interested in signing Holliday. They’ll talk to Boras to keep other bidders honest, but corner outfield not a priority for them.
Can’t say this surprises me one bit. The Yanks spent lavishly last off season (while still lowering payroll) in what was a strong free agent class. But this year’s edition is both weaker overall and the Yanks don’t have any glaring needs like they did last year. Also, coming off a World Series championship they have some equity with the fans and media, and therefore an opportunity to do some things they’ve been meaning to do for a while.
I’ve been on record saying I think the Yanks will lower payroll substantially this off season, and will likely lower it further next year. I think there are a few reasons for this. Brian Cashman’s control of Baseball Ops, Hal Steinbrenner not being his father and the looming CBA negotiation with the Player’s Union in 2011.
We know that when Cashman took control of Baseball operations in 05 he set out to run the team differently than it was in years past. Rebuild the farm system, use it to fill roster needs and make trades from a position of strength. He has been far more selective in signing free agents than George ever was. Hal has a Master’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Florida and if nothing else, can therefore be expected to run the team more rationally and disciplined than his father did. Since 07 when George gave the reigns to his sons, we’ve been living in a new era of Yankee ownership, one that is still taking shape annually.
Now we get to the looming MLB labor negotiations. 2011 sounds like a way off, but most economists think we are in a ‘new normal’ which includes lack of access to credit for small businesses, high unemployment and non-existent GDP growth (when you subtract the stimulus dollars) for the foreseeable future. That means business conditions will likely still be soft when the CBA expires, and Bud Selig will be looking for union givebacks. In that environment, he will probably get some. Rules changes are almost always bad for the Yanks and almost always targeted at reigning them in financially.
This is why I think the Yanks take their payroll DOWN a few notches this off season and next, in anticipation of rules changes. Those changes could include higher Luxury tax rates, lower thresholds for paying them, international draft, hard slotting system, etc, etc. I doubt Bud will get all of that, but whatever he gets will be bad news for the Yanks. By getting their payroll down now, they won’t have to do anything drastic later. If I had to put a number to it, I’d guess the Yanks come in at 185-190 for 2010 and 175 for 2011.
That’s why when I hear fans talk about spending like crazy on guys like Matt Holliday, it strikes me as misguided. Brian Cashman took control of Baseball ops to have this team operate differently than when George was running things. People still don’t seem to get that. Hal would have taken payroll down last year, but Cash convinced him there was a unique market opportunity with CC, Tex and AJ. I think the long-rumored downsizing of the Yankee payroll starts this year, in anticipation of rules changes in 2011. I also think the Yanks will be better off as a result.
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22 Responses to Buster Onley-Yanks Not Interested in Holliday
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TIQ IQ
Your post was right on…
I have said, we should use the players we have, if for no other reason then to see what we do have in our system. Trading for older and more expensive players is not something we have to do anymore. In years past, we didn’t have a minor league system, now we do…let’s see if we have guys we can plug in. We have enough stars, we don’t need the whole team being all-stars.
Melky-LF, Brett-CF, Swisher-RF and Pena as a back-up for the OF/IF is a start. CC, AJ, Andy, Joba and Phil is not to bad…they will be much better then they were last year, if not, we have Gaudin and Mitre.
I realize we have the money to go out and get whomever we want but, again…”want and need, are to different things”! Do we need them , or do we want them?
Well I agree to a point but we NEED to get rid of Damon no matter who starts in the outfield and we NEED another starter because relying on the rotation we have right now is foolish.
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte
Joba
Hughes
To go with this rotation you have to guarantee that no one gets hurt and we have to use another 3 man rotation in the playoffs because neither Joba nor Hughes is ready to be the 4th starter and both would go back in the pen for the playoffs.
Gaudin and Mitre are ok 6th and 7th emergency starters at times but I don’t want to go into the season knowing if Andy gets hurt we are stuck with a terrible rotation.
Sabathia
Burnett
Joba
Hughes
Mitre
Now you have both Joba and Hughes as starters in the playoffs and I definitely don’t believe in that working out!
You are also assuming that AJ will be healthy all year and will be as good or better than he was this year… If he gets or hurt or takes a step back in his production then we definitely can’t keep up with other rotations in this league.
We got lucky in the playoffs because we never played the final game of a series therefore CC never had to pitch more than twice in any series, if we go to 7 games against the Angels we could very easily lose the WS.
IMO we very much NEED a starting pitcher who can at least start in the playoffs, we don’t Lackey or a King Felix or something stupid like that, we just need a reliable 3rd or 4th starter who can deepen the rotation and allow a little more flexibility with Hughes and Joba and will give a little insurance to Pettitte and Burnett in case 1 gets hurt.
Wrng wrong wrong wrong. People dont want to hear about the Yankees shopping at Kmart. You dont get equity when you win your expected to do it again. If I see Halladay and Mauer and Felix and whoever else is out there that could help the Yanks win go elsewhere I am not going to be happy. This garbage about teh CBA who cares??!!! I dont and If Hal Steinbrenner thinks he can run the Yankees like the KC Royals he is in the wrong city.
Felix Hernandez isn’t going anywhere because the M’s are going to re-sign him long term, Halladay is 32 about to be 33 years old and is only going to be worth the prospects and contract extension for maybe 3 years if that and then you have to deal with a declining almost 40 year old starter you can’t move anywhere. Mauer isn’t going anywhere, like Hernandez the team has the money to sign him,long term and unlike Felix he as already stated he wants top stay and will take a home town discount to do so.
We aren’t running the team like the Royals… We are being smart! You don’t just sign someone because they are expensive… That doesn’t make sense! We have depth in the system and while we should make a trade or 2 to open up 40 man roster spots and save guys from the rule V we don’t need to go out and sign every FA out there.
whats up with the picture of joel piniero
I wondered the same thing haha glad it wasn’t just me…
Damn! I thought he looked a little thin. That was from Cards blog from a post concerning Matt Holliday. I guess Cards fans don’t know what their own players look like, either.
Thanks for pointing that out, it’s been fixed.
At first I thought it was Holliday but I thought he was to skinny and I looked closer and realized it was Piniero, I thought I missed something about Piniero in the article haha.
I agree that the yanks shouldn’t sign any type A free agents and give up their first round pick. But I see no harm in trading marginal players from the minor league system to upgrade defense and athleticism. The truth is the Yanks may have players who will never start in NY (Miranda of the top of my head). But these players are talented enough (or cheap enough) for the Pirates, Royals, Ms, etc. I see no harm in shopping.
Not to mention we are going to lose some guys to the Rule V anyway as it stands because we don’t have enough 40 man roster room to save everyone so a trade of some kind should go down.
Although I agree that the Yankees would like to bring down the payroll, they will do so selectively and not let pass the opportunity to significantly enhance the team. Yes, the fans and media will cut them more slack this winter because of the WS victory. But I doubt the honeymoon will last beyond the middle of next season if the team falters. Nor am I persuaded that ownership (Hal) will be satisfied with anything less than a return to the play-offs and some success there. What this means is that the Yankees may sit out this year’s FA class, but they won’t do so twice in a row if the results on the field in 2010 come up short.
Bud Selig ALWAYS talks about labor give-backs. What management doesn’t use a down economy as a rationale to extract concessions? Since a high luxury tax dampens the market (especially since some teams do not plow the revenue sharing into player salaries, as with the Marlins), the union will resist fiercely changes in that system. Forget any kind of a salary cap. So the most the owners get is an international amateur draft. I don’t think that hurts the Yankees terribly because they’ll still have more money to spend on all forms of amateur talent. Moreover, if the team cannot secure young talent for its pipeline, it will have mor ereason to invest in sure-bet free agents at the major league level.
I know some readers here would like to see the Yankees give their youngsters a chance. Alas, the evidence (minor league performance, lack of interest by other major league teams, ratings by prospect gurus at BA and elsewhere) suggests that most of these guys will be role players at best. Apart from Montero and Jackson, I would be hard put to identify a sure-fire major league regular in the organization. (Romine and others at the single-A level are simply too far away still to make a judgment.) And the same can be said for the pitching in the organization — nary a #1 or 2 starter among them.
You make a lot of sense, some people over rate our own players, hopefully I am not one of them.
I go by what I see and compare it to the stats and reports…a lot of these gurus give their thoughts by what they read written by someone else.
This year is the one year we can look at our own players and give them a chance to make it or not. The reason I think that is, there are no #1 players like Tex, CC, AJ out there to be had. I think we have guys younger and cheaper that can do about as good…maybe even better then some of the older players on the way down in talent.
Not saying I am right, nor saying to pass on someone that becomes available, fits the team and is priced right. Just the thought of spending money for someone that will not improve the team as Tex, CC, AJ and A-Rod have, makes no since at all.
A little bit of hope, optimism, and talent leads me to believe that Joba, Phil, Brett and Melky as full time players can get the job done, without buying an over age OF or Pitcher.
You can’t count on Joba and Hughes to be great! You can hope for the best and put them in the position to succeed but you need someone insurance behind it in case it fails, so you need to sign at least 1 pitcher who doesn’t cost a whole lot but can pitch and can provide some insurance for those guys.
Brett I would like to see what he can do starting in CF everyday this upcoming season but I don’t want to see what happens when you have Melky in LF and Gardner in CF everyday! The offense will be severely lacking… Melky’s power is growing but he hasn’t gotten to the point he will hit 20 HRs yet and he probably never will hit for much average above .270-.280, we would be better off signing Miek Cameron to play LF. He hits .250-.260 which isn’t far off of Melky’s average, he has better defense in CF this year than Melky did and he is guaranteed to hit 20+ HRs and it allows Melky to be the 4th outfielder and to be there in case Gardner goes down.
If Melky was starting LF when Gardner went down this year we would have had an everyday outfield of Ramiro Pena- Melky- Swisher and that outfield just won’t let you win.
Getting a guy like Cameron allows you to have someone who can play CF and LF with above average defense and bring more power than anyone can to that position on the team.
It’s fine to have young talent you want to use but just expecting them to become superstars or not get hurt is silly, you have to at least get a cheaper pitcher who can give insurance and a cheaper outfielder who can provide upgraded defense and bring some kind of bat in to lengthen the bench by putting either Melky or Gardner on it.
A guy like Ben Sheets who can sign a low risk high reward contract would be perfect for the Yankees… He has injury concerns yes but if he gets injured you are back to the rotation you were expecting to go into the season with, expect that either Joba or Hughes got some experience in the minor leagues before being asked to start at the major league level.
Hughes starting in the minors wouldn’t be bad to watch his innings a little bit and to give him some confidence back as a starter since he failed in the playoffs… Joba however would probably get more out of starting the year in Scranton that Hughes would… Joba already has had limited time in the minors anyway and getting a chance to practice his craft in an environment that is meant more for development than winning would probably be better for him in the long term when it comes to knowing his mechanics and throwing his heater more consistently.
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte
Sheets
Hughes
This is a solid rotation with someone who when healthy can more than be a number 4 starting pitcher and being so low in the rotation will allow him to pitch less innings overall for the year and with our offense we could watch his arm and not overpitch him at any point in the season and if Joba is doing really well in Scranton and is deserving of a callup before anyone gets injured you can go with a 6 man rotation at some point to even further help protect Sheets’s arm and innings and allow both Hughes and Joba to start at the major league level and at the same time take away some of the urgency to win in their starts because we would be working with a great rotation.
Sheets and Sabathia were “close” with the Brewers and anyone who talks about Sheets publicly only has good things to say and the guy is a former ace of a ball club so you know he knows how to pitch still… Can’t hurt to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal incentive laden based on innings pitched and effectiveness.
I almost always disagree with you but I completely agree on Sheets. He’d be a perfect no risk signing.
Anyone in the lines of Sheets who comes in a 1-2 year package and can sign for low money should be considered and that even applies to Wang to some degree but because Wang is a one pitch pitcher I am wary of him if he never gets his 95 MPH sinker back.
Not sure if you were rebutting me with this post, but I agree with almost every word you said. But I would add that role players have value, and I think givebacks are likely in 2011.
No I was just making sure to put the point of view of adding some people in the offseason just as long as they aren’t huge splash spends…
No doubt we have some role players who have stepped up and can step up more I just don’t want to be in a position that puts those kind of guys in areas of having to succeed… Role players often get over exposed when they become needed in order to win.
No to Holliday! No to Lackey! No to Halladay!
We should use our money to sign cheaper guys to shorter contracts that can help us now and upgrade both the defense and athleticism on the team in the outfield and we need a 3rd or 4th starter to help lengthen the rotation and give some insurance to Pettitte and Burnett in case one or both gets injured during the season.
I don’t have much of a problem with signing cheaper players i.e., Sheets/Camaron for one year but, they will want longer contracts then that. I don’t want anyone to block one of our own kids.
No team goes into a year with real good back-ups for their rotation, we on the other hand, already have guys that are about as good (or better) as anyone (cheap) out there. We have Joba, Phil, Gaudin, Mitre, maybe even CMW(later) and Z-Mac etc. Gaudin, Joba and Phil will be better in 2010, because of the work they will do over the winter and ST.
Would I like to have a dependable #4 starter who is better then those guys…yes but, not at the price it would entail.
Six man rotation is out of the question, pitchers are what they are, very regimented (almost all of them) one doesn’t mess with them like we did Joba last year.
From watching Joba, Gaudin and Phil this year I saw flashes of very good talent…Gaudin, not as much as the other two but, enough to make me believe they will come into camp and win a starting spot. Am I too optimistic…maybe I am, “so what” that’s what the off-season is all about.
I find it hard to believe that either Cameron or Sheets will receive more than 1 year at max 2 year deals… Sheets has to prove he can pitch and like Pettitte this past year he will be working on incentives but unlike Pettitte he won’t have a forever home in doing so. Sheets most likely would be better off with a 1 year deal because if he can prove he can pitch effectively and can prove he can stay healthy he will be able to pick up a much bigger contract the following year, and maybe even sign to be a top of the rotation starter on an NL contender so because of that a 1 year deal wouldn’t be far fetched for Sheets.
Cameron a 1 year deal may be less likely, I don’t see a huge market for Cameron but places like the Yankees, the Rangers and maybe even the Red Sox (should they decide to move Ellsbury to LF) could all use Cameron’s D in either LF or CF next year… Again I think a 1 year deal suits Cameron because it allows him to move on if he gets replaced or isn’t happy with his new team.
Bobby Abreu only got a 1 year deal last year with the Angles and I think there is was more of market for him than Cameron now, Bobby is a top of the order bat while Cameron is more of a defensive player with some power to add to it but he isn’t a top of the lineup guy and he doesn’t bring the patients Bobby got.
Once again Bobby this year only got 2 years from the Angels and at 10 million a year.. I don’t think Cameron will get that much this year and since he isn’t re-signing with a team I really think he will only end up with a 1 year deal and he will probably be a late signing in this free agency period much like Bobby last year.
I could be wrong but that is how I see it as of now…
Actually we did sort of work around guys “regiments” this year and could have very well used a 6 man rotation and with Joba, Mitre and Gaudin we came close. Pettitte, Burnett and Sabathia all worked with 5 sometimes even 6 days in between starts which is exactly what would happen in a 6 man rotation so I really don’t see how you think that wouldn’t work?
Joba’s problem was he was pitching 7 days between one and 5 the other and 10 the next (with how they were working it) and he never actually knew how many days he was going to get in between each start… If you tell everyone it’s a 6 man rotation they know when they are starting… It’s the same as the 3 man rotation in the playoffs, as long as you tell them the plan and work it out then what you have done becomes the new regiment. You just can’t skip all around each start and never let the starter know whats going on.
I never said there is a problem with being optimistic and in fact my post encourages it but I also point out a need to have a backup plan and insurance policies you can trust in case that it doesn’t work out… Gaudin and Mitre aren’t good back up plans, those are plans C’s and D’s…
Sheets is the type of pitcher we should be focusing on, not necessarily him in general but that kind of guy either by way of the 1 year deal or by cheap trades for a younger 3rd/4th starter… Nothing wrong with the backup plan, the only problems arise are when you think you don’t need one and in the middle of the season end up stranded with Mitre as your 4th starter all year or something.
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