Yanks vs Twins-Pitching Matchups

Fresh off one of the most epic Baseball games I’ve ever seen (BTW-Casilla was safe) and a champagne soaked post game celebration, the Minnesota Twins now have the privilege of facing the best team in Baseball in a game that starts a mere 20 hours after last night’s festivities ended. As Tom noted yesterday, from a Yankee perspective it couldn’t have worked out any better. We got a match up with a team that we’ve owned in recent years, and avoided the difficult task of facing a shut down pitcher like Justin Verlander.

So let’s look at the pitching match ups for the upcoming series, and compare bullpens as well.

GAME 1:
CC Sabathia 230 IP 7.7 SO/9 2.6 BB/9 42.9 GB% 3.94 xFIP
Brian Duensing 84 IP 5.7 SO/9 3.3 BB/9 45.5 GB% 4.97 xFIP

GAME 2:
A.J. Burnett 207 IP 9.5 SO/9 4.2 BB/9 42.8 GB% 4.50 xFIP
Nick Blackburn 206 IP 4.3 SO/9 1.8 BB/9 45.8 GB% 4.78 xFIP

GAME 3:
Andy Pettitte 195 IP 6.8 SO/9 3.5 BB/9 42.9 GB% 3.94 xFIP
Carl Pavano 199 IP 6.6 SO/9 1.8 BB/9 44.5 GB% 4.24 xFIP

GAME 4:
CC Sabathia 230 IP 7.7 SO/9 2.6 BB/9 42.9 GB% 3.94 xFIP
Scott Baker 200 IP 7.3 SO/9 2.2 BB/9 33.9 GB% 4.39 xFIP

GAME 5:
A.J. Burnett 207 IP 9.5 SO/9 4.2 BB/9 42.8 GB% 4.50 xFIP
Nick Blackburn 206 IP 4.3 SO/9 1.8 BB/9 45.8 GB% 4.78 xFIP

Game 1 looks like the most lopsided match up, and to make matters worse their bullpen is short after last night. I’m sure the Twins would have liked to start Baker in that game, but he obviously had to be used last night. Duensing was 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 84 innings this year that were split between the rotation and bullpen. His secondary numbers are all mediocre, as is his stuff according to scouting reports. It’s also worth noting he went 20-22 with a 4.00 ERA in 3 seasons at Triple-A before making his big-league debut this year. Everything about him screams AAAA pitcher, and the Yankee lineup isn’t kind to those pitchers. The only reason he’s in the rotation is Liriano wet the bed and Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins got hurt.

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On to Game 2, Nick Blackburn has faced the Yanks only 4 times in his short career, with results ranging from a fine outing on 2008-06-01 to a disastrous outing at Yankee Stadium on 2008-07-21 and a decent outing on 2009-05-16. Inconclusive. He’s typical of the Twins staff in that he doesn’t strike anyone out and doesn’t walk anyone. He puts the ball in play, but at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium that’s a dangerous thing to do.

For Game 3 Yankee fans are all too familiar with Carl Pavano, I will only say that he pitched well against the Yanks earlier this year, and of course in the 2003 World Series. Don’t let his 3rd worst ERA in Baseball among qualifying pitchers fool you, his 4.00 FIP is much better. Closing a series out facing Carl would be very sweet for Yankee fans.

Now lets look at the closers.

             IP      ERA     WHIP      SV      SV%
Rivera      440     1.90     0.94     243     93.1
Nathan      419     1.87     0.93     246     90.8

As you can see, both are two of the best closers of their era. Both teams will want to avoid trying to pull one out in the 9th. Last night’s 2 innings of work will likely mean Nathan’s unavailable for Game 1.

Prediction: Twins are a great story and a great organization, but I just don’t see them taking a game in this series, and Game 1 looks like a blowout. They won’t even get to use their best pitcher until Game 4, and there may not even be one. Yanks sweep.