Once upon a time, there was a great king of a distant land called Minnesota. He stood on top of a high hill, he could make smoke come out of his hands and his name was Santana. The people from Boston, New York and Los Angeles all wanted Santana to come and become King of their lands. They offered lavish gifts, like frankincense, myrrh, and melkies, but only one of them could win his services. In the end, the people of Minnesota decided to send him to the kingdom of Queens but the people in all the other lands were left to wonder whether the people of Minnesota (otherwise known as the Billsmiths) made the right decision. “The gifts of the people of Queens were no good,” they said, “our gifts were much better.”
Now, I think, might be a good time to revisit that trade and see if the Twins were right to pick the Mets as trading partners instead of the numerous other suitors – including the Yankees. It seemed like an odd deal at the time, when many felt that Smith could have had Phil Hughes, Clay Bucholtz, Jed Lowrie, Melky Cabrera, Jon Lester, or Austin Jackson, among others. Instead, Bill Smith, the Twins first-year GM, dealt for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Philip Humber. How are these players performing now, and did it work out for the Twins? Let’s see:
Carlos Gomez: He’s simply awful .277 wOBA: .229/.287/.337 – one of the worst hitters in the big leagues. No power, no average, no on-base. The only quality he has is speed and even that seems diminished. The Yankees would have included Brett Gardner as a(.337 wOBA: .270/.345/.379) virtual toss-in and he has similar tools but is a much, much better hitter. Melky, too, at .331 WOBA: .274/.336/.416 would have been a better choice. Austin Jackson is also likely to have a superior career. Ellsbury, as well, is a clear improvement.
Philip Humber: The, supposedly, top pitching prospect in the deal is even worse than Gomez. He has a 5.34 ERA….. IN AAA! I don’t think I’m going out on any big limb in predicting that, at almost 27 already, he’ll never be even a decent major league pitcher. Hughes is already a top, top, top 8th inning guy at only 23 and still projects as either a top-of-the-rotation guy or elite closer. Justin Masterson still projects as a mid-rotation guy and, if you compare IPK’s AAA stats, he blows Humber away at a younger age. Despite the injury, IPK has a much bigger upside right now than Humber, now that he’s returned.
Kevin Mulvey: 5-8, 3.93 ERA, 6.83 K/9 in AAA this year. Mulvey is better than Humber, but that doesn’t say much. Again, even a guy like IPK (also 24 years-old, 5-3, 2.35 ERA, 9.39 K/9 last year in AAA), who has struggled since the deal, still projects much better than Mulvey.
Deolis Guerra: 6-8, 4.89 in AA at least still has youth so, at age 20, there still is some upside. The downside is that, well, he kind of sucks. He still could put it together, but there are a million guys like this wallowing around the minors (ahemDellin Betances!).
There’s no question that minor league baseball players are notoriously hard to project, but Smith has to take some heat, here. We can’t tell, exactly, what was on the table, but he seemed to, but his statements in the press, have an axe to grind against the Yankees and possibly the Red Sox. He seemed to take a much poorer deal than he could have had, if he had courted the Yankees instead of overplaying his hand. He also made a deal, that summer, for Delmon Young, trading away talented sinkerballer, Matt Garza and stud SS, Jason Bartlett. That trade has not worked out, either, as Young has struggled (paltry .312 wOBA and terrible fielding), while Garza and Bartlett have flourished. In three short years, Smith has managed to trade away some of Terry Ryan’s (his brilliant predecessor) best acquisitions, and replace them with very, very little, indeed. It’s tough to follow a genius like Terry Ryan, but Smith seems to have proven that he has no idea how to make a big trade.
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31 Responses to Santana Trade Revisited
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TIQ IQ
I have a hard time projecting Phil Hughes to a “top of the rotation” starting pitcher… I know I will get boos and jeers over this but I don’t care, at best (to me) he projects as a decent number 3 pitcher and more realistically (to me) he projects to a 4 or 5 pitcher based on inconsistency. In other words he would be a 3 pitcher who is to inconsistent to stay a 3 pitcher and so he drops to the 4 or 5 hole in the rotation. I don’t like his straight fastball in the rotation, he has developed the cutter which I do like but even still he has an average slider, a decent curve he uses rarely, a developing change he doesn’t use and the 2 fastballs the 4 seam which tops out at 94 but stays mostly at 90-92 and the cutter which is in the upper 80′s. He’s an ok pitcher but I think he was hyped up way to much as a starter and in the pen he isn’t much of a pitcher he just throws heat and doesn’t effectively mix in the breaking ball so you end up with 10+ pitch at bats fouling off pitch after pitch, either way he goes (future closer or starter) he has a lot of developing to do.
I don’t think it’s fair to criticize the Delmon Young trade yet, because number one they wouldn’t have made the playoffs with out his hot streak at the end of the year and the second the kid has the potential to still be a super star in the league. You can’t deny the power he has, he has the swing to hit .300 and he has an above average arm (even though he has made some bad throws in this series to home plate) he makes some bad defensive decisions but he has the ability and skill to play above average maybe even gold glove defense he just hasn’t put it all together yet. If he takes the hot streak he was on to finish the season, builds on it during the winter and comes to spring training ready to go he could be right around the corner from his break out season.
But they definitely would have made the playoffs if they’d had Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.
Same thing last year, too.
Bill Smith is a horrible, horrible GM who has destroyed the great work Terry Ryan had done.
I’m not defending the deals he made as a GM but what I am saying is just when it comes to Delmon Young you can see why someone would make a deal for the guy, I thought the Yankees had an opportunity to buy low on the guy last year and pick him up for a cheaper price than the Twins paid. Young has great potential and when he was in the minors the guy was dubbed as the right handed Barry Bonds, when you criticize the Johan deal that is more fair than criticizing a deal for someone who should have already developed into one of the great hitters of the game.
The Santana trade completely mystified me at the time, and still does to this day. How the Twins could have let him go for the pile of junk that they got from the Mets is unfathomable.Espicially with the names being bandied about by the Yanks and Sox. I can’t wait until someone reveals the inside story in a book.
It may be just that the Twins GM vastly overplayed his hand, and had to take the only deal on the table, at the end. It seemed to me that the young Steinbrenners weren’t going to continue the practice of the Yankees paying higher prices in trades than other teams. They had to take a stand to send a message to the other teams that the days of the Yankees overpaying in young talent were over.
I can understand this, as I was always very angry over this injustice.
It seems that Riccardi though, didn’t get the message, this summer in the Halliday auction, as he tried to do the same thing to the Yankees. His mistake–since he was villified for it and also lost his job.
It may take a couple of more years of the Yankees saying “No” until this message sinks in with some of the greedier GM’s.
Good for the young Steinbrenners.Even though I yearned for the trades at the time, until the field balances,I see the merit in this approach. The Yankees are going to the Series this year with their young guys. The Mets were opportunists on Santana, and jumped on that one. What a steal.
Tom G.
Phil has very good C&C of his fastball and the cutter, this makes up for the vary small movement on his fast ball. As a starter he will use his cutter, curve, change and slider much more then as a RP, also his fastball should be around 90-92.
To be honest, I see him as a right handed Andy (in his younger days). He is just fast enough, with other workable pitches to be a solid #2 or #3 depending on how well Joba comes up in Spring Training. Oh yes, those of you who have very little faith in IPK, be ready for next year…his break out year!
The Yanks will have a hard choice to make after the WS…do they bring back Andy or CMW, both, one or none? They will need to make some decisions on the rotation; CC, AJ, Joba, Phil, CMW, Andy, Gaudin and even IPK. Z-Mac and IPK to the BP replacing Phil.
Considering this, the Santana Non-Trade was great for us.
Believe me I have watched Phil Hughes from the beginning… I think giving him Andy’s pedigree is a little much, Andy isn’t a hall of fame pitcher but he has been very good for a long time and I don’t see Hughes being as good as Pettitte in his prime.
Chien Ming Wang won’t even be able to pitch until the all star break or so and because of that I don’t think he will sign with anyone this winter… I think he will wait until he is healthy and can prove he can pitch and then pick a team who needs a pitcher some time in the middle of the season, that would seem to make the most monetary sense for him and it is the safest bet for any team who wants him and personally I don’t want him back any other way… Let him prove he is the old Wang before anyone talks about bringing him back and putting him in the rotation.
I believe they will let Andy decide if he wants to come back… I mean we don’t exactly have anyone you can guarantee will be a number 3 starter next year (not one you can win with anyway) and if Andy wants to pitch again he did well enough this year to earn another incentive laden contract with maybe a little more guaranteed money because of how well he did this year… However I am sure some of this depends on what he does tomorrow and going forward in the playoffs.
I have little faith in Kennedy but I also think next year will be his break out year… just in the bull pen as opposed to the rotation, I think he will be used in a similar fashion the Aceves, taking whatever innings they need eaten up whether that be one inning or 3. I just don’t see his stuff translating very well going through a major league line up 3 and 4 times a game he is just to easily figured out, and on days he doesn’t have his better command he is really just a target out there.
I don’t see either Kennedy or McAllister having the kind of stuff to take over in the 8th inning role, I have a gut feeling that you might see Huston Street in a Yankee uniform by the start of the season. Cashman and Girardi seem set on making both Joba and Hughes starters of the future and neither one of them are stupid individuals (although they don’t always make the best choices, but who does) so if you are taking Hughes out I think they realize they need to put someone in and if the Rockies hadn’t done such a huge turn around after they fired their manager I think Street would already have been a Yankee, Cashman likes the guy (IMO) and he will most certainly at least be available for trade talks this winter so don’t be surprised if the next set up man for Rivera is Street.
The best part about the Santana non trade was CC Sabathia!
I agree with your analysis. I think a lot depends on how the post season plays out.
One glaring need, right now, is that of a top 4th starter. In the 90′s run, there was almost always a big 4. The Yanks will really be hampered in the ALCS and Series in the 4th starters role, unless Gaudin enters Yankee lore by pitching his heart out.
I hope the Yankees hold on to Wang in 2010, but only in the aspect of a 7th starter, looking at some possible late season reinforcements.
Even if Andy and AJ have big post seasons, I would think that one of the two has a good possibility to regress, or be hurt in 2010.
Also, you certainly don’t want to depend on youth (IPK, JOBA, Hughes,etc.)on anything but the 5th and 6th holes, (espicially for a veteran team with many players high performance windows closing or declining).
All this points to one thing—The Yankees need to obtain another dependable horse pitcher for 2010, even to maintain 2009′s performance.
I hope they go after an impact guy able to pitch in the AL East.
It would be nice to be doing this in the guise of a defending champion, rather than a “let’s retool and try it again” mode.
Let’s see what this post season brings.
Regards,
Tom G.
I think Chris or Mo was the first to bring it up but in the ALCS we could have Sabathia pitch on short rest and avoid the “need” of a 4th starter…
I keep saying his name but the one starter who jumps out to me in this upcoming free agent class (that you don’t have to spend Lackey money on) is Harden, the guy has AL ace type stuff but he has a lot of command issues so he walks almost as many as he K’s which for an “ace” isn’t good but for us he would be a 4th or 5th starter (depending on Joba) and either way you can live with walks in the 4th or 5th spot when it comes with that much talent. I don’t think a “horse” is necessary because the only “horse” available is Lackey, all you really need is a dependable veteran pitcher who can pick up innings and not give up 6 runs a game.
Yeah but would Wang accept a minor league deal? Because if he is going to be the “7th starter” he would have to sign a minor league deal to make it worth it because no way I sign the guy to a starters contract and then place him on the DL and hope he turns into the old Wang at some point. If you wanted to do that you might as well just wait until mid season like Clemens did so many years or like Pedro did this year, it’s best for him and the t eam he goes to.
I see the Yankees cutting Wang loose at first, and then resigning him to a much, much much,reduced contract($1M or less). I think Wang would go for something like this because he is from Taiwan and the Yankees are the only American organization that he’s familiar with, knows the people, has top notch training/rehab facilities, access to top medical people, etc. I know that Wang is expected to miss half the year, which means that he may miss the whole year–maybe a couple of late season starts, if he’s lucky. So he would really be the 8th (or even 9th) seeded starter. The benefit to the Yankees is that he may come back to a 12 to 15 win level in 2011. The Yankees did something like this with that ex-Cub 20 game winner who pitched for the Yanks in 2004 (bad example, I know). If or when Wang ever regains his pitching abilities, his spot with the Yankees will be long gone, but new ones may open up–who knows with pitching. I’m sure if the Yankees sense that he will never come back they will cut him loose completely. Everyone knew this when he was injured the last time. I believe that Posada gave him a talking to that essentially said–look out for yourself now. However, I thought I saw him sitting in the dugout during the ALDS, which to me is a good sign that the Yanks are thinking of keeping him around–if he keeps progressing. He’s still a young guy, who had a high level of success.
Tom G.
I really don’t see how you can consider him young…? Wang is 29 years old right now and won’t be able to pitch until after the all star break and he turns 30 in March so by the time he can throw a ball in an actual game he will be a 30 year old power sinker pitcher coming off of shoulder surgery. I really don’t see him being fully recovered and rehabbed from the surgery until a year later so by the time he can even regain full form (if he ever does) he will be 32 years old and by that time we don’t really need a number 4 or 5 sinker ball pitcher we already have a farm system full of them (McAllister, Nova, Noesi, DJ Mitchell…) and this up coming year we should be able to use both Nova and McAllister in some role (if both are still on the team of course).
I just don’t see a place for this Wang in the rotation… I would rather take an incentive laden contract with Harden or even Sheets before I would Wang heck I would offer Lackey a big contract to be the number two pitcher on the staff if I wanted to bring back Wang and I don’t want the Yankees to go anywhere near Lackey.
Considering some of the scrap heap pitchers that the Yankees have signed to minor league contracts over the past few years for “starting depth”,(I try to forget them if i can), I just don’t see where Wang is any worse than those fellas. In fact, considering Wang’s poise, and occasional performance in big games, and how he fits in with the team, he is clearly superior to all of them (Jason Johnson, Tim Redding, Brett Tomko, many more, et al).
Of course, he has to be healthy and able to pitch.
Yeah but would Wang do that? I really doubt it, you would be asking him to take less money for no guarantee of any playing time at the major league level let alone a starting rotation spot and a chance that he spends almost the entire year in Scranton. He could just wait until half way through the season prove he can pitch and that he is healthy and get a pro rated contract to play the second half of the season on a contender with a guaranteed rotation spot, and if Andy Petitte gets hurt or Joba gets worse or Hughes is at his innings count the Yankees could be one of the teams offering him a contract at that time. It just doesn’t make sense for him to sign a minor league deal unless he just refuses to do anything but pitch for the Yankees or go to Japan because there will be teams that will want him if he can prove he can a least get ground ball outs again and that he is recovered from surgery, but at this point I don’t even know if he will be able to do that an effective level coming off shoulder surgery it makes more sense for everyone involved to wait and see what happens once he is recovered enough to actually pitch.
Well, we will just have to see how this works out with Wang. I just sense that both parties want to try to get it to work.
If it doesn’t, it will be a sad and disappointing end to a very promising early Yankee career. Maybe the worst such instance in Yankee history.
The only other pitching comparisons that come to mind are maybe, Stan Bahnsen, Ryan Duran, one guy that Casey Stengle wore out prematurely in the 50′s, that I’ll think of in a moment, there’s a couple more, too. I’ll think of them.
Sad, Sad, end, if it happens that way.
I’m ready for the Sunday night Clincher.
Looks like we’ll be facing the Dodgers, if we get by the Angels.
The Twins will be hung over for some time thanks to these trades.
According to 2008 and 2009 WAR as calculated by FanGraphs, they got some farmhands from the Mets and:
Carlos Gomez: 2.9 WAR total, .6 in 2009
Delmon Young: -1.6 WAR total, -1.3 in 2009
for the low, low price of:
Johan Santana: 6.6 WAR total, 2.8 in 2009
Matt Garza: 6.4 WAR total, 3.4 in 2009
Jason Bartlett: 6.6 WAR total, 4.8 in 2009
Considering the swaps by position, just this year they missed out on 4.8 WAR of Jason Bartlett at short for .7 wins from O-Cab (split with the A’s), 1.2 from Nick Punto (split with time at second base) and -.3 from Brendan Harris (split between second and third). That quite a three-headed monster, there.
If you let Baker and Blackburn sub for Santana and Garza, things look a little better on the pitching side since in 2009 the Twins pair was actually better than their traded counterparts (6.5 vs 6.2). The tragic part for Twins fans is that the fearsome foursome never had to be separated in the first place. Even if they couldn’t have kept Santana, the others make a fine top three and they get two wins just by not having Young.
Terry Ryan was a slick operator for getting Nathan, Liriano and Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski. Bill Smith is the bizarro Ryan. He’s Brian Sabean. Twice over.
Anybody think once the Twins realized the Yankees weren’t going to bite they panicked and traded Santana for whatever they could get because they saw the injury coming?
He has bone chips, so I don’t think it was about the injury. They just didn’t have the money for him, and maybe thought that he would never return to the heights of 2004-2006 that would have warranted the contract extension he was able to extract from the Mets.
Considering Gomez, Humber and the rest of the rogue’s gallery, maybe they should have just offered him arb when his contract expired and picked up the draft picks when he signed elsewhere.
I don’t mean this specific injury, I mean he had already started to lose velocity in Minnesota on his fastball and there are reports that he was hurt in his last year there, not to mention he had the exact same surgery (for bone chips) with the Twins he is having now… so what I meant is do you think they saw the injuries starting to pile up on the horizon (as they often do in smaller power pitchers AKA Pedro) and shipped him out before he broke down and couldn’t be traded for anything?
Edit button just went away… His previous bone chip surgery was after the 2003 season…
Chris,
I remember Hank S. comments at the time which said it all. He was a little mad that the Yankees were being asked for too much young talent–more than others teams were being asked for, and that the Yankees were tired of being treated like this and were not going to do the deal.
Do you think if the Twins had asked for 6 (or even 7) grade B, grade C, and grade D minor leaguers, instead of Hughes, Melky,Kennedy, and Marquez, that the Yankees wouldn’t have done it?
After the Yankees said no, the Twins got 6 grade B,C, and D prospects from the Mets.
Amazing World we live in.
I really don’t think so… I think Cashman had his eye on the prize the whole time and the prize was not trading a dime for CC Sabathia, now if the Twins wanted to just give him away yes they would have done that but with the drop in Santana’s velocity and the fact that Sabathia was just around the corner from being a FA I think Johan was plan B but just available first. At least from everything you read that was my impression of Cashman’s thinking.
I actually sense the Yankees want nothing to do with him and I don’t think they will even think twice about offering him a contract but we will have to wait and see how they want to handle it.
I actually think the Phillies have a chance to beat the Dodgers if and when they play… The Phillies have a good enough line up to compete with the Dodgers but they have Cliff Lee and he holds the key, if they could pitch Lee 3 times in the NLCS (they would have to avoid pitching him against the Rockies) the Dodgers have no one to match up with him and throw 0 after 0 after 0 up and because of that I think the Phillies could and would beat the Dodgers… but I had the Cards in the series and you see how well that worked out…
I,too, picked the Cards, and was most fearful of them against the Yanks. The Dodgers played dreadfully down the stretch, almost sleep-walking, then they woke up when it counted. Where have we seen Joe Torre do this before?
Thanks Dodgers for knocking the Cards out.
As for the Phillies/ Dodgers, the Phillies beat them last year, and the defending champs have the sense of expecting to win again, and have numerous HOF-ers on the team.But they also have huge holes/weaknesses in the pitching staff.The Dodgers are a hungry somewhat-youngish team, right now. The Dodgers played very well against the Cardinals, an arch-foe who has knocked them out of the playoffs many times,historically.
The Dodgers avenged themselves against the Cardinals this NLDS, and I say this is the theme of the playoffs this year.
The Dodgers avenged past playoff losses to the Cards.
The Angels avenged past playoff losses to the Red Sox.
The Dodgers will avenge last years playoff loss to the Phillies.
The Yankees will avenge past playoff losses to the Angels.
The Rockies are only allowed one miracle season a decade.
The Twins shouldn’t have beat the Tigers (something got messed up with Destiny, so they took the place of the Tigers, on whom the Yankees would have avenged the 2006 playoffs)
(OK, I’m stretching here, but the Yankees can’t lose playoffs to the Twins, ever.)
Now, for the Yankees/ Dodgers series, which is the most played WS foes.
The Yankees have dominated the Dodgers, mostly, in these match-ups, but the Dodgers won the last meeting in 1981.
So, the Yankees avenge the 1981 Series (which they should have won after winning the first 2 games) by beating the Dodgers this year.
Actually, there is an overabundence of story lines in a Yankee/Dodger matchup.
-Torre’s revenge for being fired.
-pupil versus master (Girardi/Torre)
-Manny versus the Yanks
-Arod versus Torre’s book
-Jeter beating Mr Torre
-Tex against idol Mattingly
Wow-what a week to come!
I actually picked the Yankees to sweep the Cards and since they are out I fear no one in the NL, there pitchers aren’t as mentally tough pitching to another pitcher every 9 batters and they have overall easier line ups to go through.
I don’t really give Torre the credit here just as I don’t give him much credit for his Yankee championships, he is an ok manager on an already built team but if the team needs a manager to coax winning out of them with less than all the pieces he can’t do that, he is one of the most over rated managers of all time!
A Dodger Yankee world series would be an extremely boring 4 game sweep IMO, you would have a lot of story lines (Don’t forget Padilla Vs Tex after he hit Tex twice this year) going in but the real games would be boring. Who do they have to match anyone on our staff?
CC Sabathia Vs Randy Wolf
AJ Burnett Vs Kershaw
Pettitte Vs Padilla
Joba Chamberlain/Chad Gaudin Vs Chad Billingsley
The only game you could give an edge to the Dodgers is Billingsley’s start and if you are up 3-0 at that point you could just pitch CC on short rest to close it out…
I see Chad starting that game against Billingsley don’t you?
Gaudin definitely. His last few starts were really OK. He is seizing his chance at the spotlight. Just don’t leave him in a batter or two, too long.
I still want Joba, though I may be in the minority. I think stuff and makeup wins out in the playoffs and Joba has both. I think he’s going to come through in the big spot.
I agree I would go with Joba because he has the ability to dominate and Gaudin simply doesn’t, worst case Joba throws 91 best case for Gaudin he throws 91.
I would like to see Joba go but, I think they may go with Gaudin because he has earned it. I also agree with T.O. Chris, Joba can be a dominate pitcher but, which Joba would show up?
To tell you the truth, I’d rather see a Yankees/Phillies series,too. Powerhouse defending champ, against the powerhouse Yankees. What a slugfest this would be–with a lot of homers. Maybe facing Pedro again?
The interleague games this year were taught and very close. The Phillies played us good.
However, it sometimes seem that the planets align when a Yankees/ Dodgers series seems possible, and it happens against normal odds.
I’d be happy watching the Yanks in the Series against anybody!
Tom G.
The bad Joba could show up but what do you get with the best Gaduin… One run over 4 innings? Chamberlain can go at least 4 as well as Gaudin can, the only difference is if you think you can’t live with out Joba in the pen.