Joe Girardi may be the first manager to guide his team to 103 wins and the World Series to spend the entire time prior to the Series getting skewered by the press. First it was Jon Heyman:
Girardi apparently already has a dreary book of overwrought stats in the dugout, and he’s gone to it once or two or maybe even three times too many. Perhaps the worst call of all was removing the tough David Robertson (who hasn’t allowed a run in three extra-inning appearances this postseason) with two outs and nobody on in the 11th to bring in the immortal Alfredo Aceves. That book apparently suggested off-speed stuff against Howie Kendrick, who promptly singled against the soft-tossing Aceves, then scored the game-winning run on Jeff Mathis’ double. I’m not sure what book told Girardi to keep A.J. Burnett in the game too long. But burn it. Same goes for the one that suggested Girardi remove The Great A-Rod for speedy pinch runner Freddy Guzman in case a ball is hit into the gap. A-Rod has decent speed, he’s an excellent baserunner, and there was a greater chance the game was going to extra innings than Guzman’s extra step would make the difference.
If you have been paying much attention to the criticism of Girardi this week, most pundits have pointed to the same two moves, one of which (the A-Rod move) was not that egregious. Furthermore, if the pinch running move had worked, Heyman would have been first in line to laud Girardi for his gutsy call.
Next comes Tim Marchman, in a piece that is quite impossible to decipher:
And in this year’s playoffs, Girardi has done a fantastic job illustrating why baseball is a game for delinquents, not engineers……
The curious thing about these inane moves is that they don’t—at all—match up with Girardi’s reputation as a forward thinker steeped in statistical nuance. There’s nothing more old school than pinch running on a hunch or citing the chemistry between a pitcher and catcher as a reason to bench one of your best hitters. The Yankee manager’s overarching philosophy, then, seems to have less to do with statistics than with the notion that a manager needs to make slick maneuvers to win ballgames……
All these moves are the result of a search for edges that don’t exist. This isn’t the normal annoying tinkering we’ve all seen in 100 boring playoff games; it’s a compulsive effort to control randomness. The difference between Aceves and Robertson is about 12 runs per 500 batters faced, meaning that the lesser of the two gives up about .02 more runs per batter than the other. Neither player is more likely to get any particular hitter out—whatever differences there are in the speed or break of their pitches are utterly irrelevant next to the role of sheer random chance. An “intelligent” manager like La Russa or Girardi consults his color-coded charts as he thinks deeply about whether Howie Kendrick’s swing will work better against Robertson’s curve or Aceves’ cutter. A wise manager understands that there’s really no difference and there’s nothing he can do but call on a decent pitcher and cross his fingers.
So let’s decipher the argument here. Girardi has too many numbers, but he is not really using them. Rather he is going by feel and scouting reports. Oh, wait, those are not good either. Rather, the manager should just pick a “decent pitcher” and hope it all works out. Does this make any sense to anybody?
(Just as an aside, Howie Kendrick was sent down this year because he could not hit anything but fastballs. To suggest that no particular pitcher is more likely to get him out is silliness, and is entirely unrealted to any of the fundamental precepts of sabermetrics).
All managers make mistakes, and Joe Girardi is no different. Even Mike Scioscia has come under fire for some of his moves during the ALCS, yet Yankees fans are not even aware that Scioscia made any questionable calls. We overanalyze the moves made by our own manager while glossing over the overuse of Gary Matthews Jr. and the underuse of Jered Weaver, and suddenly we begin to believe that Girardi is a buffoon who has committed multiple fireable offenses. The fact of the matter is that every move he made in the ALCS had a legitimate reason and explanation. While some of those moves were probably a bit misguided, none were inexplicable or “fireable.” The club is in the World Series, and Joe has had a part in helping them there. It is time to just tip our caps to him and acknowledge a job well done.
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13 Responses to Ripping On Girardi Now The "In" Thing To Do
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TIQ IQ
As you mentioned its become trendy to joke about Girardi. Granted some of his moves have been questionable, but he’s still done a nice job this year. I was disappointed to see two writers I really enjoy, Keith Law and Pete Abe (although he’s always had something against Girardi) rip on him so much via twitter. Oh well its not really important as long as they win.
With Pete Abe, I was unsurprised, but I too was extremely disappointed to see Law ripping Girardi in his preview today and on Twitter. He seems to be inflating a few mistakes into this huge issue, which it clearly is not.
I think if you are not mad at some of the moves Girardi has made you are not paying attention. Although in reality a lot of managers make mistakes. What’s important is if those mistakes continue or if the manager learns from his mistakes. Mike Scioscia made quite a few mistakes of his own, which I got berated for even making this suggestion at work last week. What a bunch of idiots. They were Mets fans.
I think “mad” is a strong move. I really had no issue with any of his moves except for the Robertson/Aceves one. I don’t think it means I wasn’t paying attention. It means that I think sometimes there is more than one “right” way to do things, and that Girardi not agreeing with me does not make him wrong.
Agreed, Girardi’s questionable moves have, in most cases, hurt the Yankees. The Robertson move and keeping Burnett in are the two that I can recall as being very problematic. Scioscia made some mistakes like sending in Darren Oliver to face Mark Teixeira, but other than that, I don’t think he did a bad job (people may get mad at him for sending in Kazmir in Game 6, but he was really the first available starter in the pen after Santana and has always had good numbers against the Yankees). Plus, the Angels still won games after some of Scioscia’s bad moves (I guess he made some good ones, too).
I don’t think it’s “trendy” to berate Girardi—not when there’s good reason for it. I actually think it’s become trendier for some to defend him repeatedly, despite the blatant nature of the bad calls.
I also want to say that Girardi has also made some remarkably intelligent moves, which he doesn’t get enough credit for.
Don’t you think that the “blatant” nature of the bad calls is a matter of opinion? I’m referring to the Burnett move. You know me as a perfectly logical Yankee fan (I hope), and I had no issue with it. If you read RAB, TSJC also had no issue with it. I agreed with the move and feel it was perfectly defensible (arguments which I will not get back into because we have had them too many times, lol). Don’t you think that if reasonable minds can disagree on the issue, that means that there may be more than one right answer?
I saw no good reason to take AJ out either. He sat awhile while the Yanks scored but P’s do that all the time. Every other factor was in his favor and a pitching change at that point was not apparent.
Good post Moshe. Sensible. Too bad everyone can’t be sensible. It’s a shame when the radical extremism (firing) and juvenile namecalling comes out. Personally, I can’t read that stuff and think those people are being unreasonable.
I am not sure what Yankee fans you are speaking with but I think St. Mike lost a lot of his glow in the series, all around baseball, which definitely includes Yankee fans as they watched the series intently.
I would put a coupe of other moves on his bad move list, most notably pitching Saunders in game 6 – opposed to Weaver. Weaver is far and away the better of the two pitchers and actually brings “quality stuff” to the ball park. Seeing Saunders slop twice in the same week was magic to the Yankees.
However, though I chose to refute the St. Mike comment I do not believe it was relevant. The fact that the opposing manager also made bone-headed moves does not make Girardi’s moves any better. I will go as far to say that Girardi was the better manager in the series as he at least had his team prepared to play quality fundamental baseball. It was Angels who ran the bases like little leaguers and played the field like the 3 Stooges. So sure, Scoiscia’s in game strategy was less awful than Girardi’s but he failed miserably at the rest of his responsibilities.
Again, that said, the poor job of the opposing manager doesn’t make me feel any better about the poor job of my manager.
I wasn’t saying that the bad moves make Girardi better. I was just trying to illustrate that we often overanalyze our own manager and that all managers make mistakes, not saying that mistakes are acceptable.
Good article Moshe…
Some writers and fans still haven’t gotten over Joe T, he was a very like-able and news worthy manager but, not a really good one. It almost reminds me of Tino replacing Don M, at first he couldn’t even tie his shoes without criticism.
Just an opinion of mine, if yours is different…so be it, it’s still a free country, for a while anyhow.
With all the criticism of Joe G, he has done one hell of a job with this team. Yes he has made mistakes but, who hasn’t! If this were any-other team in any other place, Joe would being setting high in their eyes and news papers but…this is NY. The writers haven’t forgotten all the stuff that Mr. Nice Guy gave them to use in their papers.
Get over it , Joe G, is here to stay…as long as he and Cash are on the same page.
Yep. Joe is praised as being an outside the box, forward thinker, but when he does anything unorthodox, it is not a sign of forward thinking, but of idiocy. Never sees to occur to them that maybe, just maybe, Joe and his staff and countless binders stuffed with million dollar scouting reports have a better handle on his players and his opponents than a guy with a press pass or a couch potato with a blog.
I was taken aback when another Yankee blog said Girardi is still learning how to handle his bullpen. This is a guy that got good performances out of Kyle Farnsworth last season, and has had the balls to put D-Rob and Marte into big spots this offseason, all to great success. For two years he has had to assemble bullpens out of bit parts and each year he has managed to assemble one of the best pens of the season.
Screw the haters. I’m sticking with Joe.
Might you list some, just for balance?