Coming into the postseason, many pundits had the Yankees as the favorites to win the 2009 World Series. However, most had questions about the two biggest stars for the Yankees, CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez. Both had rocky playoff track records, and many wondered whether these two regular season heros could carry the Yankees in October. Those concerns have proved unfounded, as both players have turned in stellar performances to this point, with A-Rod in particular saving the Yankees when they have needed him the most.
The success of Rodriguez and Sabathia illustrates the pitfalls of drawing conclusions from a small sample size. Denigrating a pitcher like Sabathia’s entire body of work based on a handful of postseason starts is not logical, nor is dubbing Rodriguez a choker based on 174 at bats. When the sample is too small, you cannot draw any conclusions from it. Look how quickly Alex was able to pull his postseason numbers up to his career marks, courtesy of Pinstripe Alley:
Arod, regular season career (8304AB): .305/.390/.576
Arod, postseason 2009 (27AB): .407/.469/1.000
Arod postseason career (174AB): .299/.388/.563
Similarly, their performances thus far this postseason do not mean that they are great postseason players. Rather, they illustrate that sometimes, great players will do great things. Mark Teixeira’s struggles reflect the fact that sometimes, great players struggle in big spots. Thankfully, Brian Cashman did not make decisions based on these absurdly small samples, and neither should we.
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15 Responses to Postseason Teaching Us About Small Sample Sizes
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TIQ IQ
Alex Rodriguez is one of the greatest players to ever play baseball, not right now but all time! He was not going to struggle in the playoffs forever eventually his all star regular season numbers were going to carry over, he just had to relax like he does in the regular season. The biggest mistake players make is acknowledging the post season as something different and trying to go out of what they do, if you just stay with what has worked for your career eventually you will hit!
I think Swish is doing this right now. He looks very uncomfortable out there.
I disagree, he seems to be the same guy he was all year as far as taking pitches and working the count and drawing his walks he just happens to be a very streaky player and because of that he is going to go through droughts like this, this one just happens to be in the post season. When Alex was doing to much he was striking out on 3 or 4 pitches and he wasn’t doing what got him the MVPs that he had, he was trying to be a different player. To me Swisher just looks like he is in one of his bad streaks but he is working 3-2 like I said and fouling pitches off in those situation think it’s just a matter of time before he busts out… You have to remember this a guy who led the team in walks and strike outs this season so this is nothing new to him an truthfully small series like these are not built for guys like Swisher who do better over the long haul of ups and downs rather than catching fire and tearing it up for a few games here and there.
that’s just my assessment of Swish right now though…
I hope you’re right. To be performing like this and having only about half the offense in gear at any one time just makes one salivate to think about what they could do if they all fired on the same night. Lots of fun so far. I just remember 2004 too clearly. I want this one over with.
I think I am but we will see…
The one I would say is trying to change who he is for the playoffs is Cano! He has been trying to take way to many pitches and he has been trying to be Swisher or something this post season, he needs to try and go up swinging not at everything but on balls he thinks he can hit like the Cano of the regular season.
Trust me Steve my roommate is a Red Sox fan and I have had to hear about 2004 all year!!!!
Couldn’t agree more. The WSJ article about a-rod’s career post-season numbers measuring up to other yankee greats through the same number of post-season at-bats (which I beleive you blogged about) was telling. Also the commentators do a nice trick of arbitrarly picking a-rods numbers from game 4 of the ’04 ALCS through the ’07 ALDS and ignore the good numbers he had in the ALDS and ALCS first three games. Right now he is playing great baseball and hopefully he can keep it up for the World Series. Right now ALCS MVP goes to CC, but if A-Rod does something dramatic tonight maybe that changes.
Really Alex only struggled from 04-07 in the playoffs, before that with the Mariners he had great numbers in the playoffs it’s all about him being comfortable!
Alex is the ALCS MVP… Sabathia has two wins but Alex has 3 game tying hits and 3 HRs in this series alone and without him going deep on Fuentes we are tied 2-2 right now even with CC.
If you really want a surprise go look up Reggie Jackson’s career playoff numbers in comparison to Alex through the same amount of games…
I don’t know the CC-A-Rod debate is a good one. There are arguments both way. If A-rod hits another homer or game tying/lead hit I see it going his way, but CC did dominate for 2 games and pitchers often get it for that type of performance. In the end it doesn’t really matter and these are the debates that we enjoy having (as opposed to the one yesterday about Girardi’s moves).
I saw those Reggie numbers in the WSJ article but it seems the rest of the media does not read the Journal or this blog (I do both).
It’s not even a debate to me…. CC did great for two games but Alex has dominated all 4 games, when you consider than the Yankees probably don’t win 2 maybe even 3 games thus far without Alex is why he is the MVP, without him who do you have offensively? Jeter and that’s pretty much it, Sabathia can only do so much because he can’t impact every game. Alex not only can impact every game he has impacted every game, he has a hit and an RBI in every game this post season and he has homered 3 days in a row.
I didn’t even see that article I just know Reggie Jackson’s numbers from looking them up, where is the article?
I forgot to add in base running, that also gives Alex a huge advantage on being MVP… He has just been to go and has had many more opportunities to affect the outcome of games.
I am not sure about Arod being the ALCS MVP. Yes he has had a major impact during this series with clutch hits but CC Sabathia has pitched extraordinary going eight innings both times without allowing more than 1 ER. What will also give him points was pitching on short rest in Game 4 and making it a 3-1 series. Dominating is a word to describe both players, but I see CC as the series changer with his performances. It will come down to the next games obviously though, so if Arod has a great game 5 I am for him getting the MVP of the ALCS but right now it is CC Sabathia’s.
Yes but of you look at what Alex has brought he has allowed CC to pitch with the lead and he has allowed him to have the runs on the board to win those games… Sabathia has impacted 2 games at a very high level but Alex has impacted every game in a high level including the two games Sabathia won, to me that makes an MVP. Sabathia has been great but Alex is having a series and a post season of a career, and it’s a hall of fame career at that! If the series goes 7 and Sabathia is forced to pitch a 3rd game and he wins than I agree he is the MVP but if we win in 5 or 6 games I think Alex deserves the MVP… without him hitting the way he is hitting the 2-5 in the line up is almost useless this whole post season and if that were the case CC wouldn’t have made a difference.
Moshe,
I don’t think that you have this right. Arod was just bad his first few years as a Yankee. It’s not a small sample size (174 ABs). His playoff BA reflects some good games with the Mariners and belies how weak he has been as a Yankee in October. With really emotional players like Arod, Tex, Swish, Cano and Melky, there is a tendancy to over-think and under-perform in high pressure situations. Often they do well initially in their early years and then there is a moment where it all catches up to them and they kind of freeze. Torre used to describe that adjustment period when players first come and play in NY. Some players never overcome the “bright lights” pressure. Others evolve and become clutch. That is the real value of playing in a lot of big games and having the experience. With Arod, I think that we are seeing a highly emotional player that has finally adjusted to the big games. The playoff games have finally slowed down a bit for him. Cabrera went through some of that this year and eventually Cano will get there. Swish and Tex are textbook examples.
It still shows the downfall of judging Arod to be a bad player in just that small amount of at bats because eventually he was going to break and he did, which makes both you and Mo right…
I’m going to strongly disagree. These guys are pressing because they are not hitting, just like they press in the regular season. I mean, Tex was great in last year’s postseason, A-Rod was great until Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, Cano was great in the 2007 postseason. We can either conclude that they are having peaks and valleys like any hitter, or we can say that they had no problem with the postseason at one time but “a moment caught up to them.” I don’t buy that second idea. Why wouldn’t the moment catch up to them in game 1 of their first playoff game? It just seems like a narrative that does not hold water.