Let’s discuss (the world’s most debated) pitcher Joba Chamberlain, who once again was awful on Wednesday. There’s no disputing he’s been bad lately, his ERA since July 31st is around 7.50. So I want to get a conversation going where we can all offer up our theories as to what’s going on with him and see if we can come to some consensus.
Here’s a few explanations of my own to start with:
-He hit the wall in August, which is coincidentally (or not) when he passed his previous career high in innings (118) from college his days.
-The Joba Rules screwed him up. With the extra rest between outings and the short starts, he simply hasn’t been able to get in a groove.
-He’s just not physically conditioned enough to be consistently good and/or his stamina is more suited to relieve than start.
-It’s the ’sophomore jinx’ that affects many 2nd year pitchers, which is another way of saying the league caught up with him and he needs to make adjustments.
-He’s better suited to be a reliever in his temperament, therefore he’ll never be a good starter.
-It’s a statistical aberration caused by the Joba Rules (see below)
-Nothing’s wrong, he’s just a young pitcher learning his craft.
Here’s his game log from this season to get some facts on the table. Our Rebecca is in the camp that thinks he hit the wall innings-wise. I don’t disagree, but that’s difficult to prove since it was right around the same time that they altered his schedule. Also arguing against the ‘hit a wall’ theory is the good start he just had last week, showing good velocity and good stuff. If he was physically spent I don’t think that would happen.
If you’ve listen to Joba being interviewed at all this year, he constantly refers to ‘rhythm’. Getting in a good rhythm, getting in a groove. When he’s throwing the ball well, you can tell right away. He’s working fast and not shaking the Catcher off much. That would argue that the Joba Rules are to blame. Screwed up his routine, and now he just can’t get in a groove. Pitchers are creatures of habit. Mussina hated having an extra day off between starts, and felt it caused his command to be off. Joba said after last night’s game that he “couldn’t command his fastball all night. Is that excuse making, or a legitimate reason?
I’ve also never been sold on his level of conditioning. We know he’s had weight issues in the past, and he still looks soft to me. He fancies himself as a Roger Clemens-type pitcher, but Roger’s workout regimen was legendary. This argues for Rebecca’s theory about him simply being out of gas.
Let me throw this out there as well. Maybe it’s all simply a statistical aberration caused by the Joba Rules. Many good pitchers will give up runs early, only to settle down and roll off 4-5 scoreless frames. But with the Joba Rules limiting him 3-4 inning stints, he hasn’t had a chance do that, causing his ERA over that time to balloon.
So there’s something to get us started. But don’t be confined to my explanations. If you have one of your own, I’d love to hear it. Give my your theory as to why he’s been so bad in August and September, to the point that they’re seriously considering leaving him off the post season roster.
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TIQ IQ
What I want to know, though, is what the hell is going on with his fastball? At the beginning of the year, when the media was going gaga that “Joba has lost his fastball ever since he went to the rotation”, I was of the mindset that if Joba can get outs consistently if his fastball is around 92-93 then who cares?
But what I’ve seen over the course of the season is that if you watched the games, you saw that whenever he had one of his typical frustrating outings i.e. 5 IP 4R, 95 pitches, 25 shake-offs of Posada, his fastball was around 90-92, max 93. And in almost everyone of his good starts, i.e 8 inn in Cleveland, both good starts against Detroit, and in his 3 great starts after the break, coincidentally, his fastball was around 94-95, and sometimes touched 96 when he K’d somebody to get out of his usual 5th inning, 2 on, 2 out jam.
So what’s going on here? is it a health issue? a mental issue?
Personally, I think Joba was trying to be too fine, not to go all out early, and thinking that if he can paint the corners on strike one and strike two then throw his slider on every 2-strike count, he’ll be fine.
But the problem with that approach is that Joba is just not that type of pitcher. Last year, when he was dominant in 12 starts, his fastball was around 95-96 virtually the whole game, and in the 6th & 7th innings, it would jump to 97 sometimes, evidence that he gets stronger as the game goes on. which is exactly what happened in his good starts this year. His fastball went up as the game went on.
Joba can’t survive throwing 90-92. It’s just not his style. That would explain all those off-rythm, frustrating starts. Because his fastball isn’t so strong, it doesn’t set up his off-speed pitches well. And major-leauge hitters aren’t gonna be scared of his slider if he can’t throw strikes consistently.
I may be totally wrong and way off base – i’m no pitching expert by any means, obviously – on this whole thing, but if you watched the games, I think one thing was obvious:
In his bad starts, his fastball was 90-92. In his great ones, it was 94-95.
That tells me one thing: Joba feeds off his great fastball. And it’s not like he’s never had a great fastball – as a starter – that went harder as the game went on. It’s what we heard when he was in the minors and in his 12 starts last season.
So, what the hell is going on with Joba’s fastball?
Joba has hit 98 in a game once this year and it was in his first 8 inning game, towards the end he was just feeling himself and throwing as hard as he wanted and was really just running through the line up, once he gets deep into games and is dominating you usually see him forget about protecting his arm and just letting go. Some how the Yankees need to get this mentality into his head to start games, he needs to enter every game like it’s Red Sox Yankees and his starting spot is on the line but at times he just protects himself, gets hit early because of it and never really mentally gets into the game enough to dial it up.
He was bad even before they started to limit his innings recently. He only had one streak right after the all-star break where he pitched well. Don’t ignore the first half of the season. I’m not sure why people blame the “Joba Rules.” He’s just not throwing with the same veloctiy and movement as he did last year as a starter. I would guess if there’s any reason, it’s the last – “he’s just a young pitcher learning his craft.”
I’m not going to try to guess the reason for his struggles but touching on the Post article and previous discussions on the post-season roster I don’t Joba goes in for the ALDS – if we are only starting 3 pitchers and we haven’t seen Joba out of the Pen in well over a year so who knows what to expect. I think Gaudin is there for long releif or an extra innings game where you burn all your other pitchers. Bruney has been good the last week and probably gets on the roster as well. CC, Pettite, AJ, Mo, Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Marte, Robertson, Bruney and Gaudin. If the Yanks take 11 pitchers Joba is there but I think they will go 10 and carry 3 catchers or Guzman for the ALDS. ALCS they will take 11 pitchers and Joba will get the game 4 start.
Yeah, I don’t know why ppl assume that Joba would be any good outta the pen when he hasn’t pitched there in over a year. Besides, after all the effort the Yanks have put in this year to protect him, putting him in the pen now and then starting him in the playoffs would be stupid. He’s a starting pitcher. That’s it. Leave him off the roster for the ALDS, let him go home to Nebraska and play with Karter a little, and hope he comes back with a clear head for the ALCS.
I think that is the only real solution you have, let Gaudin take his spot on the ALDS roster as an extra long reliever and have Joba train and be ready to go for the ALCS if we make it.
V-E-L-O-C-I-T-Y.
Where is it?
Let’s not forget, the reason Yankees were able to land Joba in the first place was the word on him was that his violent delivery would cause arm and shoulder problems later on.
Then, what do you know, big surprise he gets a shoulder injury , is shut down and comes back this season and they change his delivery a bit to keep the pressure off his shoulder and guess what?
The velocity isn’t there anymore.
Additionally, he got under the wing of AJ Burnett who frankly, isn’t throwing as hard as he used to either, he’s geared back for better or worse after playing with HAlladay last year and i believe he’s counsuling Joba to protect his arm, extend his career and get a long term contract.
The kid has a straight 90-92 MPH fastball that occasionally touches 94 but the big heater appears to be gone.
Additionally he appears fat and maybe not in great shape either and he probably has alcohol issues.He has an unhealthy sweaty appearance quite often on the mound.Not an athletic sweaty, a greasey sweaty.
AJ is throwing 94-97 consistently he is not throwing 97 consistently but he is also in his 30′s and is doing just fine, I really doubt he told Joba “don’t throw hard for a contract” because he wont get one playing like this, you are just making up anything you can based off of nothing at all.
You are saying he has an alcohol problem because he sweats? What an ignorant statement and a very mean and uniformed statement as well I can not believe you would even try to go there, it’s so stupid it doens’t even deserve a response other than to say you are ignorant.
HE is saving his arm and not trying to get hurt, you couple that with a young pitcher that a lot of hitters made an adjustment to his wide sweeping sliders out of the zone and you have the problems down. He will be fine and is a true starting pitcher but he has to understand he has to let it go and not worry about injury or he will never be anything.