He’s the #1 prospect in Yankeedom, and not by a small margin. Montero hit an eye-popping .339/.389/.562 between Tampa and Trenton this season. And he turns 20 at the end of November. But just how good is Jesus Montero? I think that we need to answer three questions:
1. Is he a MLB catcher?
2. How good was his hitting season?
3. How much should we consider Montero’s age?
Is he a MLB catcher?
This is the most important question to ask regarding Montero. The man can hit, and with all probability will hit in the major leagues. Even if things go wrong, Montero will hit well enough to be valuable at the catcher position. But can he remain behind the plate? Here is Montero’s defensive statistics from Baseball-Reference:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | G | Ch | PO | A | E | DP | Fld% | RF/G | PB | SB | CS | CS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 17 | Yankees | GULF | Rook | C | 23 | 182 | 172 | 9 | 1 | 0 | .995 | 7.87 | 4 | |||
| 2008 | 18 | Charleston | SALL | A | C | 71 | 588 | 529 | 55 | 4 | 3 | .993 | 8.23 | 11 | 79 | 26 | 25% |
| 2009 | 19 | 2 Teams | 2 Lgs | AA-A_adv | C | 59 | 458 | 423 | 33 | 2 | 4 | .996 | 7.73 | 11 | 86 | 22 | 20% |
| 2009 | 19 | Tampa | FLOR | A_adv | C | 26 | 178 | 162 | 14 | 2 | 3 | .989 | 6.77 | 3 | 56 | 8 | 13% |
| 2009 | 19 | Trenton | EL | AA | C | 33 | 280 | 261 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 8.48 | 8 | 30 | 14 | 32% |
| 3 Seasons | 186 | 1228 | 1124 | 97 | 7 | 7 | .994 | 6.56 | 26 | 165 | 48 | 23% | |||||
| C (3 seasons) | C | 153 | 1228 | 1124 | 97 | 7 | 7 | .994 | 7.98 | 26 | 165 | 48 | 23% | ||||
As always, we can’t tell a whole lot from basic catcher statistics. However, at first glance, we can see that Montero appeared to get worse across the board in 2009. His pass ball rate rose, and he threw out fewer batters. However, the Yankees haven’t even tried Montero at another position. This may be because they are entirely focused on his hitting, but I think their confidence has to be worth something. Montero is not just way ahead of the age curve at the plate, but also behind it. Catchers have a lot more learning to do when they move up to higher levels of competition, and its very possible that Jesus Montero is lagging a bit behind. Still, the signs aren’t yet encouraging.
How good was his 2009 season?
Fucking awesome. While injuries and the limitations of catching held Montero to 92 games, Jesus Montero impressed even his biggest critics. Think about it this way: his stats, extrapolated out to 160 games; 30 home runs, 43 doubles, 200 hits, 121 RBIs, 80 strikeouts and 50 walks. Montero improved his strikeout rate, home run stroke, batting average, and knocked in a ton of runners. And he did it in two tough hitting leagues in tough ballparks while playing guys much older than him. His strikeout rate impresses me more than anything.
Think of it this way: Had Montero stayed in the Florida State League for the whole season, his OPS would have topped the 2nd place leader by 165 points. Had he qualified for the Eastern League batting title, Montero’s OPS would have been good enough for 2nd highest, losing by 34 points to fellow super-hitting-catcher-sensation prospect Carlos Santana. Santana, a sure-fire top-50 prospect and potential all-star, is 3 and a half years older than Jesus Montero. Yeah, Jesus is that good.
How much should we consider age?
I can’t remember the last player at this age to hit this well at this level. But does that matter? Montero has been training intensely with the New York Yankees since he was 16, and has quite a bit of minor league experience under his belt. His performance, if we regarded the same way we regard a 21-22 year old right out of college, is in line with what guys like Pedro Alvarez, Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gordan Beckham, and Matt LaPorta have produced at the same levels. In other words, Jesus Montero is playing like a well-seasoned, top-10 college hitter.
Jesus Montero has a ton of talent, and has worked with some very good coaches in the past 3-4 years with the Yankees. He probably is more polished than a comparable college player at his age would be. Montero would be eligible for the draft in June had he gone to college. That said, he can probably still expect a great deal of physical maturity in the next couple of years. Montero was not born a Rodriguez-like super-athlete, but like anyone he will respond to strength, conditioning, and growth over time. What does this mean? Look at this graph:
[image title="Jesus Montero Hr by Age" size="full" id="8055" align="none" ]
There is no reason to believe that Montero can’t keep up the power-gaining pace that he has been on. If he improved at the same rate that he has been improving at, Montero would hit 45-50 home runs over 162 games in 2010.
Bottom line: There’s a pretty good chance that Montero can hit like Prince Fielder. And while he won’t win any gold gloves, he’s also not nearly as fat as Fielder. We’re looking at a prospect on the same level as the above-mentioned super prospects. Even if he can’t catch.
Take that, BA.
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28 Responses to Just How Good Is Jesus Montero?
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TIQ IQ
I actually thought the 32% cs rate in AA was very impressive. It would put him in the middle of the pack of major league catchers. Maybe he figured something out. He’s def the best pure hitter I can remember coming through the Yankee system. I still think he could be switched to RF if they feel he can’t hack it behind the plate.
Its a very small sample size. I don’t think its fair to look at it alone, especially with such a bad A+ rate.
Awesome post, EJ. I love the graph.
My mission: To bring excel graphs to minor league baseball analysis.
You already sold me. I’ll definitely be looking for some things to graph on my minor league prospect profiles. I’ve actually been trying to do some analysis with PASW, which should be better than Excel, but I really have no clue what I’m doing with that software.
I just look at Jesus like if he turns out worse case scenario he is a great DH who’s bat doesn’t wear down over a season of being on his knees and taking abuse behind the plate, best case he is one of the best if not the best hitting catcher in the league and we don’t have to worry about what happens when Posada’s bat is gone. Either way I am sure we are all excited to see him make his ML debut next year, although as I have said before I doubt he takes Frankie’s number 2 job away because he has such good D but Montero should be around to hit for a while after the all star break and show his potential to the world.
I see him as an Elston Howard type who can hit .300, hit 30 HR’s and play LF/DH/1b and maybe even some catcher, though I doubt he’ll ever bee an everyday catcher.
Romine and Murphy are the catchers of the future.
Hopefully Murphy can catch 50 games someday and Romine the rest with Murphy playing the field when he’s not catching.
I know I’m jumping there but Murphy looks like a special hitter and supposedly his catching skills will be there and ROmine is already a top catching prospect.
I don’t believe in Sanchez and think Higiashioka looks like a back-up type or starter later in his career on a bad team.
I think if Montero’s body continues to develop and he moves to a DH role he has the opportunity to be a Ryan Howard power type pounding 40 HRs a year but obviously with a better average and much less strike outs.
Is Jesus athletic enough to play LF in a manner that would be good enough to put him there because I really see him becoming a right handed David Ortiz in that he will be a career DH.
It may actually be a plus if he comes up playing DH because it will Montero to just focus on pounding baseballs and it could result in one of the most productive DH spots in baseball with Montero being the regular and Arod and Tex getting chances to get rest days while Montero moves to the field.
With out being worn out by a year of catching Jesus could perennially be a 40 HR 110+ RBI guy hitting right in the middle of a line up that will boast at least 4 of the 5 out of Alex Rodriguez, Tex, Cano and Jeter for at least a 4 to 6 year period.
He hits righty.
That’s a shocker!!!
“because I really see him becoming a right handed David Ortiz in that he will be a career DH. ”
Please try reading before you correct someone that doesn’t need correcting, I know we have had problems but trying to say I called Montero a lefty is ridiculous, just read!
Now why don’t you try answering the question I asked you instead of failing to try and call em out on something I wasn’t wrong about.
I hate for that to come off “hateful” and if we are being truthful no I don’t, I hate that someone on this site might find it hateful when it isn’t, but seriously! If I am going to call someone out on something I actually read the entirety of their post instead of making up parts of there posts in my head to finish the part I did read or just not reading it at all and picking out one word or two to key on…
I guarantee you read the words “Ryan Howard power type” and “becoming a right handed David Ortiz” and you ignored the words “right handed” and the rest of the post in it’s entirety and decided you would own someone you came up with “he hits righty”, I mean really? Just read the post it’s all right there, that’s the problem I have with a certain few here, you refuse to actually read the whole post so you think you understand what is being written and then you don’t realize until later you had no clue because you didn’t read.
However I do find it Ironic that “Leftylarry” thought I called Montero a left… You must have Lefties on the brain Larry… Also I told you it wouldn’t be long until the next argument ;)
So the big question – you start him at AAA in 2010 right?
I would think with out a doubt you start him in triple A based off his bat alone, it’s not like he can learn how to catch any better at double A but he will face better base stealers.
Yes.
[...] give you a hint: very good. EJ Fagan at TYU took a look at the Yanks’ best prospect, particularly how his defense has progressed and how [...]
I’d be willing to give up a little defense in LF if I had a kid who could hit .300 and hit 30 HR’s every season.
He’ll probably have a strong arm and that covers up some ills and if his hands are O.K. which they must be if he’s playing catcher. he should be able to get away with it.
Others did for 100 years before the DH.
Yeah but when you have the option to DH why even make a guy think about playing defense when he can hit 40+ HRs at the DH position and no you don’t have to worry about “making” a position for him. The game is too specialized now to compare it to the past, if a guy can hit but not play stellar defense anywhere why compromise his offensive numbers with bad defense when he can just hit. It’s worked out OK for David Ortiz and I think Montero has more natural power in his bat than David does or did.
I still think it’s too early to pigeon hole him in to a DH only position.
I never said DH only he would be a flexible DH that would play the field at 1B or LF when other players like Arod and Tex need to DH, besides he wouldn’t even put in the DH role until they give up on him behind the plate and they won’t do that for at least 4 or 5 years, I am just putting the option to DH out if he doesn’t turn into a catcher 4 or 5 years form now. Don’t take everything as it must be done right now, I never said call him up at DH, think people.
Obviously, if he develops enough to catch every day, then you are ecstatic. If he turns into a Victor Martinez or Jim Leyritz type on D (mostly a DH, but able to catch well enough to play once a week but also able to play other defensive positions passably), then I would still consider that a win. Having a third C on your roster that is a potent bat and able to play another position is very valuable in and of itself. So, I don’t see the Yanks giving up on him being a catcher any time soon.
That basically sums up what I am trying to say, at worst plan B (a flexible DH to play C and 1st some) isn’t a bad back up plan to have with someone who could hit 40 HRs a year.
The Yankees most likely won’t move him from catching right now because there’s no reason to. He’s young, still developing and has been holding the job down to date. They will take this through to the end because that provides the most potential value (Montero as a catcher). He needs to prove he can’t catch.
Yet his injury in AA this year may make the Yankees think twice. They know he has a great potential as a hitter. The injury may be enough for them to start thinking about moving him before he sustains a major injury.
Last, don’t be surprised if he’s traded. The Twins will need to move Joe Mauer because there is no way they can afford him. Mauer is someone the Yankees would consider moving Montero to get as part of a package of players.
Obviously, why does everyone think I mean make Montero a DH at 20 years old? I never said that I was just propsoing the back up plan in case catching fails.
I doubt they think that way in this situation, players get hurt that happens unless he starts getting real injury prone behind the plate I doubt it even comes into consideration that often.
Montero Won’t be traded! No they wouldn’t! Why would you trade Montero for an older catcher with no where near the bat especially when the Twins are almost guaranteed to get the home town discount, he is from near Minnesota he will never leave, they have enough money to pay him. Montero is as close to untouchable as prospects get, unless some team wanted to give at least 4 top notch, under 25, power hitting position players and ace like starters he won’t be moved, they think to highly of him. The only player with the potential that Montero has under 22 right now is Justin Upton and that kid isn’t going anywhere either.
in theory, he hits better than vmart, and also defends/throws better than him. make him catch, no?
There is no way you make Montero a DH before he turns 28 for the mere fact that A-Rod will be around that long and he’ll probably be DHing within 3-4 years. Besides, he can move to LF and eventually 1B after Teix is done. Who knows, what if Teix gets re-signed for a short deal after this deal? He would need to DH for a couple of years.
I really wouldn’t assume they would give up on Montero behind the plate until he was about 28 so it really wouldn’t matter, what we do know is that for the next 5 years 3rd and 1st are plugged and aren’t going anywhere so until then they will work with Montero to be a catcher. Once Jesus gets to the bigs he will have a bunch of catching help from Tony Pena, Joe Girardi, Jorge Posada and Frankie Cervelli who even though he is young is a great defensive catcher, if Jesus Montero doesn’t learn at least something from all that catching experience when he gets called up he won’t be a catcher period. However I would expect all those catchers and former catchers to help improve his D greatly and we will see what he can do behind the plate long term but you have to keep in mind if it doesn’t work behind the plate he has options and DH is a good one because it allows him to focus on hitting and when Arod or Tex need a day off he can go out in to the field and play first or LF in those situations making it a very flexible DH spot.
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