Cole Hamels’ best pitch this year is, once again, his changeup. The pitch, which generally clocks in around 78-81 mph, on average, was thrown just over 30% of the time in 2009. It serves as Hamels’ main strikeout offering and, according to pitch value data, was 11.7 runs above average, the second best changeup value in the NL (only Tim Lincecum’s changeup was better). He’ll throw the changeup to right-handed hitters—low and away—as well as left-handed hitters—low and away—and, when facing righties, Hamels is not afraid to come inside with the pitch to induce a weak groundout. Therefore, while Hamels doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (90 mph, on average), his changeup is deceptive enough to help him strike out 7.81 batters per nine innings. Basically, expect to see a lot of fastballs—just under 60% of the time—and changeups, with the occasional curve mixed in.
So, Hamels’ changeup is good, that much is clear. However, who can we expect to have success against it?
Here are the Yankees’ season numbers against changeups, according to pitch type value data (runs +/- average).
Jorge Posada 6.7
Derek Jeter 4.9
Mark Teixeira 2.6
Melky Cabrera 1.4
Nick Swisher 1.1
Johnny Damon 1.1
Alex Rodriguez 0.8
Hideki Matsui 0.1
Robinson Cano -1.9
With the exception of Cano, everyone on the Yankees can hit a changeup, as they’re either average (e.g., Matsui, A-Rod) or above average (e.g., Posada, Jeter) against the pitch (and even Cano isn’t far off from average territory).
Do these numbers indicate that the Yankees will do well against Hamels’ changeup? Not necessarily, as these are season numbers that aren’t exactly predictive with regards to one outing against a specific pitcher. Hamels changeup is also one of the best in baseball, therefore, it’s problematic to assume that they’ll do well given the aforementioned value data (I’m also not sure as to how a pitcher’s left or right-handedness affects these numbers). However, what we can glean from these figures is that the Yankees, in general, can hit changeups, collectively. Based on pitch value data, they were actually the second best hitting team against changeups this season (the Blue Jays were first). They’re not like the Cardinals, for example, or the Royals, two teams that weren’t able to hit the changeup at all in 2009.
Hopefully, tonight, the Yankees will be able to show Cole Hamels just how good they are at hitting his favorite pitch.
Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
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3 Responses to Hitting Hamels' changeup
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TIQ IQ
Good stuff, Chris – a few caveats I’d like to propose:
1) the Yanks are the best hitting team in baseball, so it’s not surprising that they’re towards the top of the table in hitting changeups.
2) Pedro’s best pitch is also the changeup and the Yanks clearly struggled against him the other night.
3) The change is such a unique pitch as it’s really predicated on the success of the fastball and it’s such a feel pitch. You can have the best changeup in the universe, but if the opposing team doesn’t respect your fastball, you’re dead (see Edwar Ramirez).
1. I would agree with that and also add that the reason they are the best hitting team in baseball and the reason they hit the change so well is because of the team’s overall patients at the plate (not counting Cano).
2. Pedro also had really good control for the most part and was mixing in varying speeds of fastballs, sliders and curves and he moved the ball up and down, with Hamels I don’t think he has the ability to do that. He is a 3 pitch pitcher and this year his curve is almost non existent, you eliminate the curve and pick either the change or fastball to sit on. He shouldn’t have much of a chance against the Yankees, Pedro did a very good job controlling bat speed and changing eye level, Hamels this year hasn’t done either.
Thanks, Tom.
1. Agreed, it’s not all that surprising, really. Still, even if a team is equipped with a number of good offensive players, handling the changeup isn’t necessarily connected to that. For instance, the Diamondbacks, the Giants, the Orioles, were all better at hitting the pitch than the Red Sox or the Phillies, two of the better offenses in baseball.
2. Totally true. Pedro has always had a good changeup so the Yankees could look like fools tonight against Hamels’ change.
3. Hamels’ fastball hasn’t been very good this year and he’s throwing it more often than he did last year. I hope it’s something that will hurt him against the Yankees.