Very interesting post, here, by Bill Wellman from Dugout Central utilizing four different metrics to attempt to predict which team is most likely to win the World Series. He uses Bullpen WPA, Isolated Power, League-Indexed FIP, and UZR, reasoning that the four most important factors for postseason success are the bullpen’s ability to hold a lead, overall pitching, fielding, and sheer power.
I found the process of choosing the metrics to be pretty fascinating. Which metrics are the most comprehensive, the most reliable and the most indicative of postseason success? The isolated power argument is the most interesting, for me. Wellman chooses Isolated Power because, “pitching is much better in the postseason, and because scoring runs with singles and walks usually requires three positive outcomes for a single run.” It’s a really intriguing line of speculation. I think there’s definitely something to his argument, but there have been a fair number of teams in the past who have won the Series by hitting singles, stealing bases, and scratching out runs (Twins, the 80′s/90′s Cardinals, the Angels, or by taking a ton of pitches, drawing walks and getting to the soft underbelly of the bullpen (late 90′s Yankees). Maybe speed factor and/ or OBP or some other plate discipline stat could be used to substitute for isolated power if the team grades out particularly highly in those areas. I think there are also many power hitters that are only mistake hitters and mistake hitters fare particularly badly against top pitchers. Maybe there’s a way that tendency could be counteracted.
It’s no surprise that, under Wellman’s equation, the Yanks grade out at number one, finishing first in Bullpen WPA and Isolated Power, though only being in the middle of the pack in FIP and surprisingly low in UZR (damn you Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera!!). It’s a fun debate, anyway. What metrics do you guys think are most important for predicting postseason success? Do you like Wellman’s formula? What would you add or subtract?
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9 Responses to Can Anybody Beat the Yankees?
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It seems like a cherry-picked set of variables to me. The Nate Silver “Secret Sauce” formula is based on actual correlations. Wellman just uses questionable logic.
There are some common themes. Nate’s formula includes, “[three] key ingredients that strongly correlate with postseason success: a team’s [pitchers'] strikeout rate, or Equivalent K/9 (EqK9), adjusted for a team’s league and ballpark; its quality of defense, or Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), an estimate of the runs a defense has saved or cost its pitchers relative to the league average; and its strength of closer, or Win Expectation Above Replacement (WXRL), which measures the wins the closer has saved versus what a replacement-level alternative would have done.[19] In other words, teams that prevent the ball from going into play, catch it when it does and preserve late-inning leads are likely to excel in the playoffs.”
Both emphasize bullpen preserving leads, fielding, and pitching. Wellman adds Isolated Power. Wellman’s formula for utilizing his metrics is mudh more rudimentary, as Silver actually HAS a formula while Wellman just adds up rankings without any weights. I still think it’s interesting, though.
Hey we have AROD, he had 2 hr’S AND 7 rbi’S IN TODAYS IMPORTANT GAME.
It may not have meant anything to the standing but I can hardly say it isn’t important to Alex and especially the game he had really does wonders for a guys mind set heading into the playoffs. Make no mistake for us to go far into these playoffs we will need this Alex!
I’ve formulated an equation that determines the outcome of any given baseball game….the team that scores the most RUNS, will win 99.99999999999999% of the time.
Bill James NEVER came up with that equation.
At the end of the day the Angels are the team that is set up to give us the most trouble. 1. They have a deep rotation that goes 4 deep 2. They have one of the best running games in the AL 3. They have an offense that can score by HRs and manufacturing runs and they hit well with runners in scoring position. Now the one weakness that they have that will ultimately allow the Yankees to beat them (if they face them) is their bull pen, it is well known that the Angels have a relatively weak bull pen and this is the one area that the Yankees can really exploit by causing their starting pitchers to throw a lot of pitches early and get into the pen. They really have no one in the pen even down the Fuentes who puts the fear of god into you and because of that they can be beaten by patient, veteran, hard hitting offenses who can run and manufacture runs.
I’m just not confident in Yankee pitching in a short series.Even Pettitte is a question mark.He was far from brilliant in many post season games that I can remember..
Yet he has also been brilliant in many post season games I remember! Every team in this thing has pitchers who can go either way, all you can go on is the talent and hope it comes out… Lackey, Weaver and Kazmir all have the ability to throw shut outs against the Sox yet all have the ability to throw a clunker and get hit around, that’s just how it goes in baseball.
The Tigers only non question mark is Verlander, other than that they have a 20 year old kid and Edwin Jackson and Washburn who both have been unpredictable at times.
The Red Sox don’t know how Beckett’s back is and they don’t know what they are getting out of a young Clay or an inconsistent Dice K.
No team has a solid 1-4 rotation in this thing which is why our rotation stacks up pretty well, it’s not the best in the world but you have the talent level of two aces and a damn good 3 veteran.
Just a quick recent history on Andy in the first round of the playoffs.
In Andy Pettitte’s last 3 Divisional series games he has done very well, in 2007 he went 6.1 IP with no runs and 5 Ks, in 05 with the Astros he went 7 IP with 3 ER and 6 Ks finally in 03 he went 7 IP with 1 ER and 10 Ks. Recent history would at least suggest that Andy does very well in the divisional series, in fact in his career in the divisional series he has a 3.92 ERA in 80 IP with 22 BBs and 54 Ks. The Yankees only need Andy to pitch one game, if in that one game he puts up anything close to his career numbers in the DS than we should win the game he pitches in whether it’s against the Tigers or Twins.
Pettitte has been there and done that! Maybe he wasn’t always the best but I have no problem with sending out Andy Pettitte as the number 3 starter in this rotation.
If you want to go one step further than that Pettitte has a 4.13 ERa in the Championship series and a 3.82 in the World series, the man has pitched on the big stage for the biggest team and did it well.