We all know that CC Sabathia has the body, the rubber arm and the attitude to be successful on 3 days rest. We all remember that he did it with the Brewers last year with success, but what are his actual statistics on short rest? Is there any chink in his armor that might forebode disaster: a bad start, a low k/9, an increase in walks, perhaps? Thanks to BaseballReference.com, it’s pretty easy to find out and you can check it out at this link, here.
The short answer is, no, there are no bad signs at all to be found anywhere in his numbers on 3 days rest. In fact, the only scary thing about his stats are how good they are. In every single category, he betters his numbers on regular rest. k/9: 8.8 to 7.4, k/bb: 4.33 to 2.77, ERA: 1.01 to 3.66, OPS against: .413 to .684, WHIP 0.825 to 1.218. He’s pretty much been awesome on short rest with 2 caveats: a small sample size (only 4 games) and a low BAbip (.239 to .291) which may indicate that he had his share of luck in these starts.
Of course, those starts don’t factor in the poor playoff outing last year which was probably caused by the consecutive starts on 3 days rest. This shouldn’t be an issue, as CC will go back to normal rest for game 7. All in all, it’s possible that CC may actually be BETTER on short rest on Tuesday. There’s certainly no statistical evidence that he’ll suffer. What do you guys think? Any predictions for his outing? I’m going with 7 innings, 2 runs (and hopefully a 4th game sweep).
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14 Responses to By the Numbers: CC on 3 Days Rest
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TIQ IQ
I don’t think he’ll be better or worse. I think he’ll be the same CC.
Well the “same CC” has varying ranges of good and bad, ranging from 5 innings 6 runs to a complete game shut out, the guy has no hit stuff on occasion and once in a great while he has no command and gets hittable.
I think he will actually top his first game both with his slider command and his change up location and won’t give up any runs in 7… He could probably go 8 but I doubt Girardi stretches him that far if he has any choice in the matter.
I’m predicting 6 innings, 3 ER and 4 K.
That’s pretty average, especially for CC who will pitching in California which is his home (even though he doesn’t have great numbers in Cali). so you think the quick turn around will be adverse to his pitching rhythm?
You think Joe will quick hook him b/c of the short rest?
Yea, I’m lowering my expectations and assuming that he’ll be a bit tired. The Angels have hit him well in the past and in Game 4, instead of having the offensive black hole that is Jeff Mathis in their lineup, they’ll have Napoli in catching Kazmir (Mathis started last time). He crushes lefties and has hit CC well in the past, too. I think they’ll do a better job given the circumstances. I’m hoping that I’m wrong, though.
The quick hook is what I wonder about, I think he will go 100 pitches for sure other wise why do it? But I am not sure he will have the 115+ limit like he usually does in big games, a good 6 or 7 innings is what I expect but I don’t expect 3 runs. CC to me is just one of those guys that cranks it up for the post season, not so much in times past but just looking at his intensity and fire to be good now that he is resty every start will be better than the last in these playoffs.
I’d be happy with a 3-run performance over 6 or 7. That’s a quality start considering. I do expect more from him, though, I’m just trying not to jinx him :)
Its a smart move. He’ll get around a week off after he closes the series out on Tuesday. :-)
Sweep!
That would be sweet. It’s true that by starting CC on 3 days rest, he (and the rest of the staff) may actually wind up with MORE rest b/c he’ll prevent the series from being extended. Getting ahead of myself, though, go Andy!
Excellent post Tom, and very timely. IIRC he didn’t show any signs of wear pitching on short rest until the 3rd or 4th time in a row, which won’t happen with the Yanks this year.
Thank you, and God Bless Baseball Reference. It’s amazing how many great sites there are out there now for information and stats.