Not too long ago, RAB made an excellent case for re-signing Hideki Matsui, a free-agent at the end of the season. The argument boiled down to two main points. 1) The Yankee offense would suffer without a proper DH, and 2) Matsui is one of the very best DHs out there.
In reference to the first point, I absolutely, wholeheartedly agree. Rob Neyer (in a post about Adam Dunn, no less) alluded to the fact that if the Detroit Tigers had even a decent DH, they would have already clinched the division. The idea of a rotating DH to rest the veteran regulars is nice, in theory. But in practice, it just doesn’t hold much water. I mean, how often are you really resting your regulars? Posada can DH once a week. Damon too, I guess. But who is going to DH the rest of the time? And more importantly, who is going to play the field while those guys are resting? By rotating the DH, you end up with an extra below-average offensive player nearly every game. You’re either playing the likes of Ramiro Pena in the field while a regular hits the DH spot, or, even more absurdly, playing one of those all-glove, no-bat guys at DH. No, in the ultra-competitive AL East, you need as many big bats as you can find.
To the second point — the one that claims Matsui is the biggest, baddest bat on the market — I disagree. There is no question that Matsui has been a valuable part of the team this year. But to assume that this will continue is, I think, a big leap. To start with the obvious, in 2010 Matsui will be a 36-year-old with a history of knee surgery. More importantly, knees don’t get better, and Matsui has had his drained of fluid several times this year. That Matsui has had one of his most productive years as a Yankee this year is a testament to his talent and work ethic, but it is not automatically a reason to grant him a new contract.
I think one of the biggest downfalls of the Yankees has been that they sometimes evaluate talent on very narrow terms. Matsui had a good year, and Matsui is a good Yankee, ergo, Matsui will be a good Yankee next year. They did this with Jorge Posada’s last contract. And look, Jorge Posada is a good player having a good year. But the New York Yankees have more money than every other team. Their goal should not be to get good players, it should be to get the very best player at every position, every year. And the point of writing all this is not to defame Hideki Matsui. If he is back as the DH next year, I welcome him, because he may well be one of the best DHs in the league. But he is not THE best DH in the league. And because of that, I think it’s fair to look at some other options. In that spirit, I’d like to present three alternatives to Matsui:
1) Bobby Abreu: Like Matsui, Abreu will be a 36-year-old free agent with a history of success in New York, who is coming off a very good year. He represents an upgrade in OBP and speed, while sacrificing some power. Unlike Matsui, Abreu has no injury history. Furthermore — and what a sad statement I am about to make — Abreu is the superior defender, in so much as he can actually stand upright in the outfield. With Abreu, you actually could give regulars like Damon and Swisher a day at DH, have Abreu approximate playing the outfield, and not lose any thunder in the lineup.
2) Vlad Guerrero: There aren’t many players who, if they’re at bat, you stop everything to watch them. Vlad is absolutely one of those guys, and the idea of seeing him in pinstripes (albeit a few years too late) makes me positively giddy. Granted, Guerrero is coming off a season full of injuries, and he clearly isn’t the player he once was. But he’s a year younger than Matsui, and perhaps he could benefit, as Matsui has, from a full year at DH. If you’re talking upside, Guerrero beats Matsui by a mile.
3) Adam Dunn: Again, Rob Neyer did an outstanding job outlining his value as a DH. He is last in the NL in defense, but he is a premier offensive player. He is on the cusp of his sixth 40 home run season, and 10th in the NL in OBP. It’s true that he’s signed for the next 2 years, but he’s signed by the Washington Nationals, who may be eager enough to get out from under the $26 million they owe him to not ask for much talent in return. Would you trade a prospect or two for this lineup:
Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Dunn
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Cabrera
You would at least have to ask, right?
-Posted by Scott
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10 Responses to A case against Hideki Matsui
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TIQ IQ
The statistics certainly indicate that Vlad is on the decline, but I would love to see him in pinstripes. Much like Big Papi, even in decline, he's still a fierce presence in any lineup.
I think you guys are over valuing Vlad. First, there is no way he is 34. Second, not that money matters for the Evil Empire (E.E.) but he made $15M this year to hit 15 dingers with a 0.793 OPS. Plus he only hit .245 against lefties. I really think the Yanks need to get younger in the OF. Swisher will come back down to earth next year (and he's a sub par defensive outfielder anyway). You have Damon and his noodle arm. Plus Melky who played over his head all year. I'm telling you…Matt Holliday would look awfully good striking out in pinstripes.
Big Holliday fan – great in the OF and I don't care that his stats go down when not with the Rox because his stats with the Rox were insane. I can't say agree with the Yankees staffing "the best player at every position". That's what led to the Yanks demise after 2001. I think they are on a great track right now. The Playoffs will certainly sway the decision-makers; but if we can take it this year, the only thing I would consider is getting Dunn for prospects or Abreu on the cheap…
I don't think anyone would disagree with you that the Yankees need to get younger in the OF; unfortunately the options are somewhat limited.
As I mentioned in our Facebook chat about this, Austin Jackson isn't ready yet and may not end up being anything more than a 4th outfielder. As bad as Damon is defensively, the Yankees have mostly been able to hide his arm in LF, and his offensive production this year has considerably outweighed any defensive shortcomings.
As far as Melky goes, I know you're not a daily watcher of the team, but he's been mostly below average with a few flashes of excellence sprinkled throughout. Unfortunately, Melky has yet to develop into a guy you can rely on to put up even an average season over the course of a 162-game season.
Re: Swisher, I disagree — this is the type of player he's been for most of his career; he just had a down year in Chicago, which could happen to anyone who had to play for Ozzie Guillen. I wouldn't count on much of a decline from Swisher.
And you still have yet to answer my question about how a native Floridian becomes a Red Sox fan.
Obviously the Yanks shouldn't bite at Vlad for $15 million, but among the potential bargain signings, he has a lot of upside, which was Skip's original point.
Craig I think there's a lot of evidence to suggest that the after-2001 Yankees often went to extreme lengths to sign not the best player. They skipped on Beltran and Vlad, signed Damon. Let Pettitte walk and instead got Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano. They seem much smarter now.
Holliday is completely overrated. He wants Tex money and puts up vastly inferior numbers. His contract will be an albatross. Let another team make that mistake.
So Lars, you are basically advocating that the Yanks continue valuing offense over pitching and defense. And it is working this year…so far. Are you saying an OF of Damon, Cabrera, Swisher and Vlad at DH? Woof. Who DHs against lefties? Or when Vlad's 38 year old back gives out?
You were right about Swishy…teach me to open my mouth without reading stats, I promise it will never happen again (today).
As for the million dollar question:
Not a native Floridian, spent my formative years in the DC area with a luke warm interest in the Birds until Angelos destroyed the team. Went through a period of lacrosse induced "baseball sucks" idiocy. Went to a school with a bunch of moronic Yankee fans with stupid nicknames like Man Child and the Joker forcing me to choose sides. Aided by a short French Canadian, I started following the Sox during the Pedro years. I then had to deal with even more moronic Yankee fans in Florida. God, do I like the Sox just because I hate Yankee fans?
Love always,
Jason Varitek's rotting corpse
I'm a fan of Abreu or Dunn personally. Dunn would obviously be a full time DH. Abreu has solid speed and is still a great hitter. If the Yanks keep the dimensions in RF abreu could see similar power number to Matsui I think. 80% of Abreu's career home run's have gone from RF to CF. With 43% of his total home runs going to RF.
Say someone gets hurt or needs a day off and Abreu can easily step right in. He didn't want to leave NY and I could easily see him in pinstripes again.
We only need these cat's for one year anyways because we all know that Jesus Montero will be taking alot of DH swings in 2011.
Ahh yes I almost forgot, imagine having the top two players in pitches per at bat in Swisher and Abreu and we'd be getting into those bullpens earlier and earlier.
As much as I love Vlad and wanted the Yanks to sign him more than anything prior to 2004, I think he's past his expiration date. You could probably make the same argument against these other guys as well, but Vlad has looked especially old to me. I know he's missed some time this year, but he's not even OPSing .800.
I would probably be on board with an Abreu reunion tour if they didn't resign Matsui, although I still wish the team had signed Dunn last winter when they could have had him for just money and nothing else. Adam Dunn would crush 50 home runs easy playing 81 home games at Yankee Stadium.