Over the last two weeks, Melky Cabrera has hit .377. He has 20 hits, 10 RBI, and 4 SB during that time. He’s having the best year of his career with a line of .281/.340/.430 and a wOBA of .337. When one considers his ’08 season, it’s safe to say that Melky has rebounded. However, for discussion’s sake, how does one explain Melky’s resurgent year?
Well, in order to “get” Melky’s 2009, we must first look to his 2008 season. Last year, when Melky hit a disappointing .249, one of his biggest problems was that he had deserted what had worked for him in previous seasons. In 2006-7, Melky was keeping the ball on the ground. His ground ball to fly ball ratio in ’06 was 1.48. He didn’t have much power then so keeping the ball out of the air and on the ground worked for him. In 2007, he continued that trend and had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.75. He had actually cut down on his fly ball rate and had increased his ground ball rate. It worked in ’07 as Melky hit .273 and put together a solid campaign.
However, in 2008, things began to unravel. Last season, his ground ball to fly ball ratio was 1.33—the lowest it had ever been as a full-time player. Melky was trying to lift more balls and ended up hurting himself in the process (for instance, his infield fly ball percentage skyrocketed to 15.3% after being a mere 11.6% in 2007). That year, only Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi—the two primary power hitters—had higher fly ball percentages (in 200 PA’s or more). Given his skill set, Melky should have been emulating Derek Jeter or Robinson Cano rather than A-Rod and Giambi.
In 2009, Melky has, essentially, corrected the problem. This year, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.65. His fly ball percentage is 30.2%—down nearly 5% since 2008, while his ground ball rate is up. In fact, his 49.9% rate leaves him second only to Derek Jeter. He has also added some power to his repertoire, too, as 10.7% of his fly balls have ended up being home runs. In previous seasons, that rate had not surpassed 6.5%. Therefore, while he is keeping the ball on the ground—for the most part—his fly balls are more valuable in 2009 (one could tie that to Yankee Stadium although his splits have evened out over the year).
While I’ve provided a rather long-winded analysis of Melky’s bounceback season, the bottom line is fairly simple. If Melky can keep the ball on the ground while limiting his fly ball rate, then he’ll continue to be a useful big league hitter. That’s what we’ve seen in 2009 and that is what has worked for him in the past. When he tries to deviate from that formula, things become problematic for him. This, of course, can change if he matures as a hitter and develops some more power, but, until then, he should stick with what works.
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7 Responses to Understanding Melky's resurgence
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TIQ IQ
The sooner I don’t have to watch Melky as a Yankee fan the happier I will be as a Yankees fan. I could care less about Melky. I hope he is traded for a nice piece after this season.
Add in that since he is now on a hot streak and he can’t keep them going I expect ICE COLD Melky come October.
Writing a Melky article brings you like a moth to a flame. Melky has had a solid season, and has come up huge in big spots. He’s still young, and seems to be improving. I’m not sure why you don’t like him (so much that you don’t want to watch him), but he has been a good piece on this team. I was never a big believer, but he has had a good year and shown real improvements. Deal with it.
Well said, Mo. I’m wondering if his power is real. If he can become a 20 HR guy, then he could definitely be the full-time CF for the Yankees, well into the future. His splits aren’t as bad as they once were and he actually has more doubles on the road than he does at home. Perhaps he’ll surprise us.
I can see 10 HRs, not 20+ but I could see an average of 18-20 a year… The problem withy Melk’s swing is that he gets on roles where he is trying to jack everything for a home run or at least a big fly and he ends up pulling up on his swing almost adding an uppercut while torquing his whole body upward to the ball, which ends up having him top off a lot of balls and easily nub them to one of the infielders. I have notice recently since he has gotten back on a role he has stopped doing (something I am sure Kevin Long worked on) but it seems to be something that doesn’t go away and at times he does allow him to hit HRs. Just watch his at bats, when he is hitting and doing well he has a level bat through the zone when he is topping balls off and sending them to infielders for easy ground balls watch his swing and I guarantee he will be jerking up. It’s like he decides he needs to hit more HRs so he goes out and gets it and the funny thing is it may give him a HR or two but it takes a lot away from him because he isn’t allowing himself to hit everything.
Boy, if this doesn’t make you appreciate what we had in Bernie, nothing will.
I don’t miss Bernie at the end at all though!! His defense was terrible, it was almost sad at times trying to watch him track balls down… Hopefully next year Austin will be coming up and fill the CF position for some time to come.
Melky is a blogger’s dream. Not since Aaron Boone hae I felt such love/hate feelings for a guy.