In the previous installment of this mini-series, I took a look at Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and John Lackey. In this installment—with two more on the horizon—I now analyze the predictions offered by Jon Heyman, an unnamed GM and an anonymous scout, in relation to the following free agents: 1) Chone Figgins, 2) Bobby Abreu, and 3) Jarrod Washburn. While some are more interesting than others, all three are truly noteworthy names that may generate interest in the Yankees’ front office. First, we begin with Figgins.
4. Chone Figgins, Angels infielder. Versatile player is expected to draw interest from many teams. The White Sox and Yankees might top the list.
Agent: $40 million, 4 years (or $30 million, 3 years).
GM: $35-40 million, 4 years.
Me: $50 million, 4 years.
Chone Figgins is a solid offensive player. He’s a speedster that hits for a high average and, although he took a step back in ’08, he has generally improved upon his on-base abilities since 2006. This season he is hitting .301/.395/.390 with a .356 wOBA, while stealing 42 bases and accounting for 108 of LA’s runs. What he lacks in power—only 4 HR this year—he makes up for in fielding versatility, as he can play practically any position outside of catcher. The Angels have let him man third for most of the year, though, and he has more than settled in there, defensively (15.8 UZR). Taking his defensive diversity and offensive tools into account, I think he’ll ultimately receive a 3-4 year deal worth $10 million per (Fangraphs has him valued at $25.6 million this year).
Buster Olney recently speculated that the Yankees would sign Figgins to play left field. He makes sense in that he’s a versatile guy, something the Yankees seem to want, especially if they keep their DH slot open as a resting chair for their other players. However, while Figgins can play left field, in limited playing time, he has never posted great defensive numbers there. Frankly, he has always been a better infielder than an outfielder. In fact, when compared to other third basemen in the AL, much of Figgins’ value this season is tied up in his defense (second best defensive 3B in the AL, middle of the pack offensive 3B).
Therefore, I don’t think that the Yankees will want Figgins for left field. Sure, he can play the position when needed, but he has never really played there full-time and has never shown that he can be an above average outfielder. If he’s a mediocre outfielder and his bat isn’t particularly good, then he what’s the point of signing him? For that reason, I think the Yankees will either pursue another player, or they’ll resign Damon for left (Damon’s not a good defender anymore, but his offense is still valuable). In addition, I doubt the Angels will let Figgins go since he has been central to their team’s success and their overall style of play.
In the end, Figgins makes a lot of sense for a number of teams, however, the Yankees could certainly do better in their search for a left fielder.
6. Bobby Abreu, Angels outfielder. One of baseball’s most consistent players made $16 million in 2008 before inexplicably having to take a pay cut of nearly 70 percent. The GM sees Abreu as comparable to Raul Ibanez, who received $31.5 million for three years last winter.
Agent: $6 million, 1 year.
GM: $30 million, 3 years.
Me: $30 million, 3 years.
There’s not much to say about Bobby Abreu, another Angel and a player that Yankee fans know very well. He has performed above his $5 million contract in 2009, hitting .295/.393/.428 with a wOBA of .365. His power has faded considerably, however, his eye is still strong and his wheels are still working (29 stolen bases on the year). He has proven to be one of the better free agent pickups of the winter and $30 million over 3 years seems fairly reasonable.
When the Yankees let him walk in 2008, it was primarily because of his age and defense (both of which are still concerns). However, since the Yankees will likely need a regular DH with the ability to play the field every once in a while, they could do worse than Bobby Abreu. Will he end up with the Yankees? Probably not. I truly doubt that they would be willing to pay him $30 million over 3 years, although he’ll most likely get that from someone (i.e., Mets). Abreu also didn’t like the way the Yankees handled his exit, so he may not entertain their offers even if they do show an interest in him.
7. Jarrod Washburn, Tigers pitcher. Huge performance in Seattle, not so much in Detroit. Could go back and rejoin the Mariners.
Agent: $18 million, 2 years.
GM: $18 million, 2 years.
Me: $36 million, 3 years.
This season, Washburn pitched well in Seattle, thanks, in part, to an improved two-seam fastball and the Mariners’ excellent defense. Before being traded to the Tigers, Washburn’s ERA was 2.64. However, ever since he arrived in Detroit, he has struggled, posting a 7.33 ERA over 8 games. In his defense, Washburn’s Motown blues appear to be brought on by a significant knee injury. Given his age—he’s 35—the injury, and the way he is performing down the stretch, I believe he’ll receive a contract similar to what the GM and the agent have proposed at $18 million over 2 years.
The Yankees have been interested in Washburn for a few years now and they could look to him as an option if Andy Pettitte doesn’t return. And, even if Andy does return, Brian Cashman could choose to pursue Washburn for the back-end of the rotation. A Washburn signing would ultimately depend on what the Yankees want to do with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Given that Hughes could certainly start the season in Scranton in order to build up his innings, having Washburn as your number 5 starter to begin the season could be an effective plan.
Of these three players—Figgins, Abreu, Washburn—all of them make some degree of sense, yet, each one appears to be a secondary option. Before signing Figgins, I’d like to see the Yankees pursue Matt Holliday and bring Johnny Damon back as the DH on a short-term deal, whereas Abreu will seek a multiyear contract. Also, a Washburn signing would be dependent upon a number of in-house moves regarding Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Again, all three players would be useful to the Yankees, however, none of them seem like the best fit.
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36 Responses to Predicting free agent contracts, pt. 2
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I’ve been reading that the yanks want to save money this year, and I dont know how true that is, but w Damon & Matsui leaving that saves approx $26M. you then have nady, which saves the yanks $6.5M. Thats approx 32M off the books, and I do feel that the yanks will make an offer to the big free agents out there like matt h. or bay. Chris, Im really liking the thought you throw around w holliday and damon the best. I would ideally like to sign holliday, washburn and damon. Here’s hoping it happens!
I also heard that the Yankees are looking to cut payroll a bit. That could, of course, change if they win the World Series. Also, just as Mark Teixeira made sense for the Yankees last season, I think Matt Holliday makes similar sense and should be signed. If the Yankees are willing to spend on him, it’s a no-brainer.
He is still young, he provides real protection for Arod and he becomes a role player instead of “the guy” which didn’t work out in Oakland.
The part of this post that puzzles me is this: “Given that Hughes could certainly start the season in Scranton in order to build up his innings…” If the Yankees want to limit Hughes’s innings next year (as they surely will), why would choose to have him waste some of them in the minors? I presume spring training is where a starter works toward 100 pitches per outing. What additional value, then, comes from sending Hughes to the minors? It seems in effect that this would reduce him to the 6th starter, to await recall when injury or ineffectiveness (read: Joba) leads to the need for another pitcher in the Bronx. A more likely scenario is to keep Hughes in the NY bullpen until, say, May, then stretch him out with a few starts in AAA before inserting him in the rotation.
Hughes could start out in Scranton given that the team won’t necessarily need a 5th starter at the season’s outset. He could pitch in Scranton, where the games aren’t nearly as meaningful, and go 4-5 innings for a bit, so as to keep the innings down for later. I don’t think the Yankees will want to use him out of the bullpen at all next year. It hasn’t worked well for Joba Chamberlain’s development, so why would they do that to Hughes? I also think they’ll try to figure out the setup man position this winter so that it’s not a problem throughout 2010.
Chris:
You have clarified your positon on Hughes, but then the post itslef is more puzzling. You said Washburn could begin the year as the 5th starter, yet in your response here you suggest the Yankees won’t need a 5th starter early in the season. If that is so, where would Washburn fit?
They could still bring him in to serve as their 5th starter for the year and see what Hughes does in AAA. Or Washburn could, instead, be the 4th starter with Joba as the 5th. It’s basically a move that could provide them with stability at the back-end of their rotation. If this is the case, Hughes would be the sixth starter, essentially, and would come up if his performance as a starter merits it. It gives them pitching depth if Joba struggles or if someone is injured.
Why would the Yankees want Washburn at all? They’re much better choice then him. I would rather take a flyer on Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer.
If Andy doesn’t return, which is unlikely but possible, I would probably take Washburn over Duch or Sheets based on health issues. If Andy does return, though, I would definitely look at other options outside of Washburn, those on the low-risk, high-reward side like Sheets and Duch.
I don’t want Duchscherer ever! He doesn’t have the make up to survive in New York and if you are going to sign a 37 year old left handed pitcher who has been awful with a contender in a nice sized park then you might as well just sign the 29 year old right hander with electric stuff and 9 K ability in Rich Harden, he is the premo starting pitcher for the Yankees in this off season market because he isn’t a type A free agent, he has great stuff, he can be a perfect 4 or 5 starter and he will be cheaper than almost every other good pitcher on the market.
The biggest reason the Yankees farm system tanked was because of there approach to free agency. Signing 1 type A player a year takes away your 1st round draft pick. I believe that since they signed 3 type A free agents last year they will not sign any this year. Will they look to sign a type B free agent? I think this is likely if one appeals to them.
I think you will see a trade or two instead of a type A free agent signing.
So you think they deplete the system by signing free agents so instead you want to trade players from the system to not deplete the system? Doesn’t make sense.
Lmao! Right now the Yankees are going to lose young players because there are to many to protect. There are not enough spots left on the 40 to accommodate all of them. So why not make a trade?
Trades are supposed to help both of the teams. If a trade brings the Yankees a solid addition to the team I am fine with it.
I really doubt there are any trades the Yankees want to make or are willing to accommodate demands for considering not a lot of people are clamoring for a deal revolving around Ivan Nova or Ian Kennedy. The Yankees are probably going to lose players to the rule V but who really not that much you can do about it and a lot get returned anyway, they aren’t going to rush for a trade just so no one claims Ivan Nova.
I imagine they will sign Chapman, sign Figgins, bring back Damon and Pettitte and look for one trade for an 8th inning guy like street. So yes I do think there is an option for a trade but the way I interpret your post is a trade for a starting pitcher or position player and I really don’t see them trying to get anyone in a trade but a true set up guy like Street.
ARE YOU CASHMAN? Dude you are ridiculous. Your love of Figgins is bizzare as he is just not that good. Damon who really cares what he does if he’s cheap the Yankees will make an offer otherwise see ya. I would be just as happy if we brought back Nady over Damon.
Finally how do you know who other teams may or may not have interest in?
I really hope the Yankees can trade for Seth Smith!
Are you? Thought so! You have serious problems dude and are obviously a little obsessed with me or you wouldn’t comment everything I say, you must really want my approval on your ideas… sad really.
Everyone here is making educated guesses on the whole everything everyone is talking about, very little of sports talk isn’t opinion I just happen to disagree with you. You can disagree with me but don’t lie a .300 switch hitter isn’t “not that good” and NAdy is way worse than Damon and may never be able to LF again with two TJ surgeries!
Again opinion and educated guess work.
Will never happen in my opinion, they won’t give him up and the Yankees won’t even inquire about him they just won’t even come close to that deal.
I don’t care what you say about Chone’s “Value” in his bat he is a great offensive player with his skill set and if you don’t think so then do you watch baseball? He is a legit threat every year to hit .300 and steal 50 bases as a lead off switch hitter, that in and of its self is very valuable. Every pitcher you face has to start off facing the opposite handed batter and then you go to Jeter and either Damon or Tex which makes a nasty line up.
Come on, Chris. Anybody who disagrees with you doesn’t watch baseball. I think it is legit to debate Figgins value as your everyday LF. He probably provides more value as a guy who plays everyday but shuffles between positions.
Mo I was mainly remarking about this comment in the post “his bat isn’t particularly good, then he what’s the point of signing him?” That is BS I know he isn’t a great power hitter and he isn’t a sexy batter but to say he is average in LF and his bat isn’t particularly good is just false, he has never had a terrible bat.
He can definitely do those things, however, he’s not a left fielder. There are a lot of players that can hit .300 and steal bases. In fact, Matt Holliday can do those things and, guess what, he’s an actual outfielder with great range, a great arm and more power than Chone Figgins. If you’re going to pay $10 million per for Chone Figgins, you might as well pay an extra $8 million a year for Matt Holliday.
Matt Holliday can not steal 50 bases come on now don’t even compare the two skill sets…. they aren’t even close to the same player and for all your bitching about how he can’t play LF how do you know? You have no stats to prove he is a bad outfielder you yourself even say he has no evidence to prove he is less than average what proof is there he is not better than average? He has the range and for all the people who want Crawford the range is all they are taking into consideration.
I hope your right but at this point the only player I would even consider trading for to hold down the 8th is Street and there are no free agent bull pen pieces good enough the be the lock down 8th inning guy.
Yea, I’m going to talk about Harden in the next installment. I think he makes more sense for the Yankees.
Based on age, price and ability to contribute past 2011 to me makes him the best available starting pitcher for what we are looking for.
Washburn over Harden in that scenario? I just don’t get it… He is younger, will cost less and has a lot more upside than Andy Pettitte 2.0 just half as good.
I agree (I like Harden over Washburn), but there is one argment for Washburn- he will give you more innings at league average.
This is true but as a 5th starter if he gives you 6 innings a night with 3 runs and Washburn goes 7 with 5 runs is it that much better? Also Eiland has proved this year he has the ability to work with pitchers who struggled previously maybe he can help Harden be a little less wild and maybe go a little deeper, but either way I think the potential is their for Harden with Washburn your just getting Washburn except a year older than now.
I mean come on if you have watched Chone play you know what a beast and an annoyance he can be on the base path and at bat, just think of the steal and hit and run possibilities that come from CHone leading off, Jeter hitting second and Gardner hitting 9 so when the line up turns over you get Gardner, Chone, Jeter in a row speed, speed and more speed.
Listen, I like Chone. A look at my MVP ballot should show that. However, he does lose some value moving to LF from 3B. He also becomes a defensive question mark- he could be great, but he could be awful. You just do not know.
Yeah I agree his defense is in question moving him to LF but I just don’t think you can question his bat because of the defensive move he will still hit .300 or right at it and steal bases and go first to third extremely well, if the questions are on D then keep them there.
He has speed to have good range out in the outfield and he does have experience there but I agree it’s a crap shoot but before I signed him I would want to see some kind of demonstration of his outfield abilities.
I like Matt Holliday for this team in LF I just think Chone is a viable option and his D can’t be any worse than Damon’s and he can actually catch pop fly balls (he has never had a problem with it at third like Arod) so if you want to save money and years and make the line up more of a mix of power and speed Figgins is the way to go.
I would bring in Figgins and bring back Damon as the DH, assuming they don’t want to spend on Holiday and are done with Matsui.
That is exactly how I would handle the situation, then the only real problems you have to deal with are if you want to sign Harden or trade for Street because I don’t think they would do both.
Let me ask you this Mo, do you think that Chapman changes the way the Yankees look at this off season? Say they want Chapman and they sign him to a big contract, that eliminates both Harden and Holliday and then you end up with Chapman going to Scranton to be the 6th pitcher they call up to help with the “Hughes rules” or for injury.
They bring Damon back to play DH
They sign Chone to play LF
They sign Chapman and send him to Scranton
The starting rotation is CC, AJ, Andy, Joba and Hughes with Chapman, McAllister, Nova and IPK waiting in the wings in triple A to be the 6th starter, sound like a reasonable scenario?
That really sounds fine to me. I have no problem going into next season with that rotation. I am not a huge Harden fan, so I do not mind passing on him, and I don’t think the Yankees plan on spending for Holliday (Cash said he convinced the Bosses to go in on Tex by pointing to the weak upcoming FA classes). I can see them bringing back Andy, bidding on Chapman, deciding between Chone and Matsui, and calling it an offseason.
If it’s down to Matsui and Chone I go with Chone just because Matsui provides no versatility and with Chone you have the option to play him at 3B or 2B when Arod or Cano need rest.
I agree with Hollidy costing to much and if the Yankees want Chapman he is theirs, they have always had the inside tract on Cubans and we have the most money to offer but to do so takes us out of the other FA races which I think Cash is fine with to take a chance on a lefty who can throw harder than CC.
The only thing I would add to this and forgot to talk about is the 8th inning role, this scenario leaves you with no set up man and a bunch of middle relievers in the pen, If the Yankees go this route they really have no choice but to try and trade 3 minor league players for Huston Street. I don’t think the Rockies are set on hanging on to him long term so the off season is the perfect time to try a trade and since they replaced him fairly well for a while this year they may be willing to let him go before the season because they don’t have to answer to the fans for giving up a season like they would have been doing this year.