Jon Heyman, along with an unnamed agent and general manager, offered a few contract predictions regarding the top 24 free agents for 2010. In the following mini-series, I’ve highlighted some of the more interesting names, including players that the Yankees will likely be interested in, and Yankees that will be granted free agency at the season’s end. The series begins with the top free agents available for 2010: 1) Matt Holiday, 2) Jason Bay, and 3) John Lackey.
Here are the contract predictions, via Jon Heyman, scout, and GM, juxtaposed with my own analysis.
1. Matt Holliday, Cardinals OF. St. Louis is going to try to keep Holliday, one of four big summer pickups who helped the Cardinals run away with the NL Central. The Cardinals are going to hope that he loves being in their baseball-crazed city to the point where he would forego bigger dollars elsewhere (Boston and both New York teams are likely interested). With franchise man Albert Pujols‘s contract up in two years and Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter in a year, the Cardinals don’t figure to be the high bidder. The agent said he believes that Holliday and Bay should each get $2 to $3 million a year less than Teixeira. But the GM said, “Teixeira’s a plus defender, a switch-hitter and slightly younger” than Holliday.
Agent: $147 million, 7 years.
GM: $80 million, 5 years.
Me: $120 million, 7 years.
Holliday is the crown jewel of the upcoming free agent class. Although he had a rough start to his season in the AL, he rebounded while with the A’s and ultimately hit .286/.378/.454 over 93 games. With the Cardinals, he’s sprinting towards the finish-line, as he has hit .363/.415/.659 since his NL return (he has 12 homers with them, too, 1 more then he had with the A’s while playing nearly 50 more games with Oakland). Holliday can hit, he can field, and he has surprising speed (14 SB on the year).
The Yankees will certainly look at him as a left field option in 2010, although with Hal Steinbrenner at the ship’s helm, I wonder if they would be willing to commit the years or dollars predicted by Heyman or the agent. I could see them paying $17 per over 6 years, but 7 might be a deal breaker. Conversely, I think the GM is undervaluing Holliday. If he were available at that price ($16 per over 5), then the Yankees would most definitely ink him to a deal.
2. Jason Bay, Red Sox OF. The Red Sox tried earlier, and Bay has said he loves playing in Boston, a stark change from Pittsburgh.
Agent: $147 million, 7 years.
GM: $60 million, 4 years.
Me: $80 million, 5 years.
I think Jason Bay is being tremendously overrated by the agent. While his offense is a plus, he’ll be 31 at the end of this season, whereas Matt Holliday will be 29 (no one is going to give him 7 years). I think the GM and Heyman have better predictions given Bay’s streaky offensive year. Bay has also been awful, defensively—a trend which began in 2007, after some leg problems—which significantly undermines his offensive value. I think the Yankees may look at him as a secondary option if they do decide to chase Matt Holliday, however, I don’t think they’ll pay top dollar for his poor defense. Heyman probably has the best prediction at $16 million per (he’ll be overpaid if he doesn’t figure out his fielding problems).
3. John Lackey, Angels pitcher. The Angels tried last winter at close to $60 million over four years, but Lackey said he signed a team-friendly deal last time and won’t do it again.
Agent: $75 million, 5 years.
GM: $60 million, 4 years.
Me: $85 million, 5 years.
Holliday, Bay and Lackey will be the biggest names available and, with the Yankees, they’re always in on the bigger names, so I had to discuss Lackey. Now, I don’t see the Yankees going after him—not after they gave a lot of money to CC Sabathia (deserving) and A.J. Burnett (undeserving). Still, Lackey is one of the better pitchers in baseball—he’s totally underrated—and could always become a legitimate option if Andy Pettitte chooses to retire (unlikely) or if the Yankees plan on starting the season with Joba or Hughes in the minors, so that they may continue to build up their innings, etc. (also unlikely). Also, if the Yankees choose to bring back Johnny Damon for left field and opt for the rotating DH idea, they could have money to burn on pitching.
Lackey should command the same $82.5 million that the Yankees gave to Burnett, which is a lot of money, obviously. Frankly, Lackey is a better pitcher than A.J. is, too, and will likely get a few more dollars because of it (Heyman’s $85 million prediction sounds about right). I do think that he’ll wind up on the Red Sox, though, which means you’ll inevitably read a number of reports about Yankee interest over the winter to drive up his price (reports concocted by Lackey’s agent and the Yankees).
These three players—Holliday, Bay and Lackey—stand as the cream of the 2010 free agent crop. You’ll probably hear that the Yankees are interested in all three during the course of the offseason, although one, in particular, seems like a really good fit (i.e., Matt Holliday) given the team’s needs and goals. Tomorrow, I’ll have more on some of the other free agents discussed in Heyman’s piece that could potentially play a part in the Yankees’ 2010 plans. So, stay tuned…
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31 Responses to Predicting free agent contracts, pt. 1
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I’d go for Lackey first. I wouldnt want the Red Sox to have him. Imagine Beckett, lester, and Lackey– wow! You can never have enough pitching. Just like the teixiera signing, we get better and also prevent the sox to get him. I’d say go for him.
If not him, maybe Washburn. He may be had for cheap since he’s not doing so good in detroit- what the hell happened to him there?
Ha, yea. Washburn could be a good back-end option. He’s had knee problems ever since he was traded.
If I was going to sign Lackey or Washburn I would sign Harden, he is still in his 20′s and has better stuff than either one of those two, not to mention he will be at a fraction of the ptice and years that Lackey wants. Why over pay when you don’t have to?
I think the Yanks are looking for a leadoff type in LF, someone like Craford (trade) or Figgins. Damon is still a possibility and then goes Holliday. I expect the Red Sox to go hard after him as a better option than Bay. Lackey would be a great addition but his struggles at Fenway at some point in his carreer will be a thing to consider
Yup, the Sox are going to be all over Holliday. I’ll be writing about Figgins tomorrow, so be sure to check in for that.
Figgins will be in New York if he leaves the Angels that I can say with almodt no hesitation I’m just not sure he wants to leave the Angels that much though, not even for a lot of money, he won’t be starving in LAA and he loves it there.
I am such a figgins fan and I like the way teh Angels play. I think if the yankees can sign figgins-with Brett Gardner maybe hitting 1-2. Pending Gardner can be a full time CF-then the Yankees could play a little sciossa ball as well as have the pop.
You want Figgins 1 and Gardner 2? Where does Jeter hit 9? Gardner can’t bat above .270 yet playing every day, next year he would hit 9th splitting time with Melky again and Figgins would be 1 and Jeter 2 with Damon 3 if he comes back.
Trade the farm (Miranda, Brackman, Gardner, Melancon, Romine, etc) for Carl Crawford. If not, sign Damon to a one year deal and pay up for CC in 2011 when he is a free agent. Then throw $$ Chapman. He has too much talent not to take a shot at. They should get whatever they can for Miranda who is blocked by Tex. And Melancon who looks like a deer in headlights on a MLB mound.
So you want another LFer with no arm and his only real asset is his speed which will slowly deteriorate. Why would you trade a younger faster Crawford (Gardner) for a 29 year old Crawford who is only slowing down? You can’t trade your whole farm system because you like and over rated Crawford and you can’t trade Melancon because he hit some people, his overall numbers aren’t bad he just walks and hits to many, once he gets his control down he will be great out of the pen. Why set up the Rays to take over the division with young talent again?
No, I want a LF who just turned 28 in August, is hitting 300 and has 57 stolen bases. But I guess that’s over rated. Gardner is a younger Crawford? A lifetime 295 hitter? News to me. And I want to like Melancon. I really do. But his k/BB ratio is 1 and he looks like he is peeing his pants out there. Plus, w/ Crawford in left and Jackson in center in 2,3,4 years, does a fly ball even hit the ground?
It’s not about who your getting it’s the fact that Crawford has no arm to play LF and is only getting older and will need a minimum of a 5 year contract probably longer for at least 10 million a year and I’m sure a lot more because his option is for 10 million alone.
Gardner is a young outfielder with blazing speed so yes he is a young Crawford who just hasn’t had major league experience like Crawford does…
In 3 or 4 years no but in 5? Crawford would be 35 and starting his Johnny Damon like decline in the outfield because he will lose his speed and his already weak arm will get worse like Damon’s except once his speed goes he doesn’t have the power to fall back on.
Financially it doesn’t make sense to get Crawford when his bat and speed aren’t worth the money in the long haul especially when you consider you have to trade Gardner, Romine, and Melancon just to start. Not to mention I don’t see how the Rays wouldn’t want Jackson to replace Crawford and maybe even BJ because he i bound to leave sooner rather than later.
In 5 years he’ll be 33 math major…I can’t even read the rest of your response.
I hit the wrong button but your obviously intelligent….
How old are you again 12?
I understand why people like Crawford. He has never delivered on his power, though, which hurts his value. In the end, he’s not available to the Yankees. The Rays aren’t going to want to trade him in the AL East. They’ll send him elsewhere, probably to the NL.
That is my point… For us to trade for him it would be at such a price that when you combine that with the financial obligation you would have with him that it wouldn’t be worth what he brings to the table.
The best value free agents this off season are going to be Rich Harden and Chone Figgins because of what they can bring to the table and the amount of money they will command, but Holliday and Bay should be considered and at least talked too. Abreu and Matsui I don’t even want near this team again, and Damon I only take back as a full time DH and only if he takes a one year deal or a on year deal with a team option for the second.
I don’t get it, though. Figgins isn’t a good left fielder. He’s a great third baseman and will likely want to continue playing there. It makes no sense to sign Damon to be the DH and then put a lesser player in LF. Why not resign Damon to be the left fielder—since his defense is already deteriorating—and then bring in a better offensive player to be the DH?
You have no proof that Figgins is a worse defensive player than Damon because he isn’t… Figgins has speed and a good glove, his arm isn’t the strongest but it is a lot stronger than Damon and I think Chone can play any position he wants well, he would be like having Hairston starting LF every day but with lead off hitting ability.
I can’t believe one of you is hating on the 28 year old CC playing left and so high on Figgins who turns 32 this off season. “Best Value Free Agents?” You mean like Baldelli and Smoltz for Boston?
Crawford isn’t a free agent!!!! That is the point!!!
Crawford would cost you a boat load of players to even acquire him and then you would have to pay him over 15 million a year for at least 5 years…. Is Crawford a better player today? Yes, but is it worth having Crawford around at 35 or 36 years old with no position, no power and no speed?
you can’t compare Smoltz and Baldelli to Figgins Vs Crawford because Crawford isn’t a free agent he is going to have to be traded for and then signed long term and why trade for a hitter on our offense when you could trade for a starter.
You have the nerve to call someone a math major when you don’t even know that Crawford won’t be a free agent…
I know he wont be a free agent. I said if the Rays don’t bit on the trade, wait for him to become a free agent. Why are you so dead set on holding non-impact players? The yanks made a charge in the East this year while Gardner was on the DL. Melancon will never be more than middle relief. Would I like to just get talent w/out giving anything up? YES. But there are no players I want to see in the Yanks LF for the next 5 years who are free agents this year. With Damon and Hitsui leaving, a lefty bat in the outfield would be best. And someone under the age of 30. And someone w/ speed to improve defense. Holliday in the AL scares me and is going to cost WAY too much. So, you tell me who is under 30, lefty, an impact player and will improve the defense over this year? I’m all ears.
First of all calling any prospect a not impact player is premature how may impact players have developed out of nothing? Ever hear of Albert Pujols go look and see where he was drafted…
If they don;t bite on a trade wait until he is a free agent, if we don’t get him in a trade someone will and they will re-sign him long term or the trade would be worthless so I doubt he ever makes it to free agency, and even if he did how would signing him next year improve this years D? You can’t just wait for everything to happen because it doesn’t always work out.
Me personally I don’t think we NEED a left handed bat we have plenty even with out Matsui, heck we only start two right handed batters at any one time. I also don’t consider Carl Crawford a great defensive LFer, His speed helps him get to a lot of balls but he has a weak arm and his speed is really the only asset he has in fielding game because his glove is OK but he isn’t one of the best fielders in the league by any means.
I would go after Holliday on a 5 year deal and see where the market goes from there, I am not as sure as some of you that the economic market will open up that much more than last year and a lot of players were struggling to get one year deals last year so I think the days of the 7 and 8 year contract on guys like Holliday are gone for a while even if he is the best option this year.
If you are asking me (with out being a dick) who I would put in LF this upcoming year then I would say Chone Figgins on a 3 year contract would have all the speed Crawford does for a lot less money and he would be a switch hitting lead off man instead of a left handed two hole hitter who would steal the same amount of bases that Crawford would in our offense. If you have to have someone under 30 on your team then good luck you can only work with what you have, if you want to trade everyone for Crawford go ahead but I doubt they let him go in a deal to the Yankees without Hughes/Job/Montero being involved, why would they weaken themselves for us to get stronger unless they win as much as they can? If you think you are going to get him for IPK, Romine, Gardner and Melancon you are mistaken especially since you would be giving them 3 players who were injured this year and one who has hit 4 batters in 16 IP.
I am not even so sure we won’t go into the season signing no one to play outfield and letting Gardner, Melky, Hairston, Pena, and Swisher taking turns at the 3 different positions like this year but with Damon DHing. You lose a little offense but I don’t think that would concern Girardi or Cashman at all and you have Austin in the minors to be called up and help out as well. We really don’t have a NEED to sign an outfielder just a want.
I never said Figgins wasn’t worse than Damon defensively in LF. What I said was that he doesn’t present a clear upgrade defensively and his bat isn’t as good, so why even bother with him?
Switch hitting .300 hitter who can steal 40 bases leading off and why bother? That is a pretty good reason for me, I mean he doesn’t have a lot of power but with Damon back we wouldn’t need that much power and Chone goes first to third better than any player in the league darn near and he could really help us advance base runners, not to mention he hits over .320 with RISP.
Chone Figgins has a career batting averages of .329 Vs Baltimore, .304 Vs Boston and .275 Vs Tampa Bay so he has had success in the AL East in his career… I just think when you ad a player like Chone to the top of your line up, a guy can hit .300 (career .292) and steal 40 bases while being a switch hitter leading off gives us so many advantages in the line up over what we have now, he even allows us to have a player to put a 3rd base from time to time when Arod DHs or sits out. The only problem would be where to put Damon in the line up seeing as how he has power now but not as much speed as before, maybe 3rd?
LF Chone Figgins 40 SB
SS Derek Jeter 20 HRS/190 hits
DH Johnny Damon 24+ HRs
1B Mark Teixeira 35-40 HRS
3B Alex Rodriguez 35+ HRS
C Jorge Posada 20+ HRs
2B Robinson Cano .300/25+ HRs
RF Nick Swisher 25-30 HRs/walks
CF Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera 20-30 SB/10-18 HRS
It’s a pretty dynamic offense and Chone serves as a stop gap for the next two or three years for a more permanent LFer since one is not currently available.
I like you’re thinking w/ this line up and it looks potent. But you’re assuming you can move A-Rod the 5 hole w/out him having an emotional melt down. Also, when I said the Yanks could use CC, I was assuming they would not re-sign Damon. If Damon agrees to a 1 year deal, none of this matters. The yanks should go for a starter to replace Wang. And the reason I’m so hesitant on Figgins is the same reason you’re hesitant on CC. Speed is Figgins’ best asset (followed closely by defensive flexibility) and he is 4 years older than CC. There are going to be enough players on the Yanks over 35 years old in the future. (Jeter, Tex, A-Rod, Posada, CC, Burnett) Do the yanks really want to add Figgins who has 0 power to that list?
Can anyone explain to me what the love affair with Carl Crawford is? I understand he is extremely fast and is a decent enough hitter to be a number two hitter maybe a lead off man if you are desperate but with the amount of money per year he will want and the fact that we would have to trade for him from the Rays it isn’t smart financially or farm system wise… Why save up all these prospects to give them to the Rays for a 28 year old LFer when you could get a cheaper alternative or spend the same amount of money on a 5 hole hitter with out trading anyone.
I think 7 years for Holliday in this economic climate is a little long, I don’t think any GM is going to want to go above 5 years, now someone may pull a Texas Rangers and give him 7 just to get the deal done but I think Market sits closer to 5 years.
I would also say that anyone who is signed to play LF can only hold the job for 2 or 3 years because if Jeter wants a new contract there is almost no way to do that unless he moves to LF so why would the team need a less than 30 year old LFer if it means no more Jeter? We should be looking for a Chone Figgins like stop gap for 2 or 3 years than let Jeter move to the outfield and find the SS of the future. Because there is no way Derek can play SS more than 2 more years… at least IMO…
jeter is still the shortstop of the future. Hes the best with hanley ramierez at close second jeter is the deserving mvp this year and looks sharp in the field. his career batting average is over .300 and his fielding is still great. he will be fine. He is the definition of a yankee and will play until he dies. i promise you once he retires, no yankee will ever wear number 2 again