Here’s Jon Heyman (SI) on Derek Jeter:
He did well to get a $189 million contract last time, wisely following the lead of Rodriguez’s $252 million Rangers deal. But the team can’t claim to be at all unhappy with how it’s turned out, either.
They know they can’t let him go. And he surely can’t imagine himself elsewhere, either. This is a marriage that works. The guess here is that after 2010 the Yankees re-sign him for at least $60 million over three years, perhaps a little more than that.
$60 million or more over a three year period seems like an extremely large gamble, especially when you’re dealing with a player that will be 36 at the end of his current contract. However, Jeter has essentially “fixed” himself, defensively, and is still producing offensively (“still producing” is an understatement). According to Fangraphs’ value data, this year, Jeter has been worth 6.2 WAR and should be paid about $28 million for his production in a contemporary market. Therefore, assuming that he produces at a similar level in 2010, Jeter can certainly ask for $20 million per year, or more, and mean it.
However, there is no guarantee that Jeter will warrant $20 million per in 2011-2013. He’ll still be hitting in Yankee Stadium, yes, but at some point the bat speed begins to fade and the legs begin to go. The Yankees will obviously look at age as a factor in their negotiations (it would be bad business not to). For that reason, I actually think the deal will end up being less than $60 million, but it’s really up to Jeter since he holds all of the cards. After all, he is the all-time hits leader.
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